Validea Joel Greenblatt Strategy Daily Upgrade Report - 11/23/2024
Stock Ratings Update: Validea's Earnings Yield Investor model, based on Joel Greenblatt's strategy, has upgraded ratings for Terex Corp and Molson Coors Beverage Co from 80% to 90%, indicating strong interest due to improved fundamentals and valuations. Rimini Street Inc saw a significant upgrade from 0% to 100%, while Reynolds Consumer Products Inc increased from 70% to 80%.
Company Descriptions: Terex Corporation manufactures industrial equipment; Molson Coors operates in the beverage industry with multiple breweries; Rimini Street provides enterprise software support; and Reynolds Consumer Products offers various consumer goods under well-known brands.
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Market Opening: U.S. stock markets are set to open in two hours.
Terex Corp. Performance: Terex Corp. (TEX) saw an increase of 11.4% in pre-market trading.
CoreWeave Inc. Performance: CoreWeave Inc. Cl A (CRWV) experienced a rise of 7.1% in pre-market trading.
- Market Rebound: The stock market rebounded in the morning session, with the S&P 500 rising over 1% due to stabilizing oil prices and reports of President Trump's consideration to end military conflict in Iran, alleviating investor concerns about prolonged hostilities.
- Stock Performance: Vertiv (NYSE:VRT) surged 3.5%, Flowserve (NYSE:FLS) rose 3.3%, EMCOR (NYSE:EME) increased by 3.6%, and Terex (NYSE:TEX) jumped 3.9%, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the outlook of these sectors amid geopolitical tensions.
- Terex Volatility: Terex shares have experienced 20 moves greater than 5% in the past year, and today's increase indicates that the market finds the news significant, although it does not fundamentally alter perceptions of the company's performance, suggesting cautious optimism.
- Investment Returns: Despite Terex's 2.8% rise year-to-date, its current price of $56.57 remains 18.6% below its 52-week high of $69.51, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, with a $1,000 investment five years ago now valued at $1,228.
- Investment Scale: E-ONE announced a $23.5 million investment in its manufacturing facility aimed at increasing aerial production capacity by 35%, addressing the growing demand for modern ladder trucks in North America and enhancing the company's competitive position in the market.
- Efficiency Improvements: The expansion will enhance existing assembly, fabrication, and paint facilities, with the paint operations set to double in size, which is expected to improve production throughput and product quality, thereby reducing delivery times and increasing customer satisfaction.
- Focus on Ladder Manufacturing: The establishment of a dedicated ladder manufacturing center of excellence will address current production constraints and support future capacity expansion, ensuring E-ONE can quickly respond to market demands and enhance overall production capabilities.
- Community Engagement: A groundbreaking ceremony will be held at E-ONE's facility in Ocala, Florida, attended by state and local legislators, local fire chiefs, and community leaders, further solidifying the company's relationship with the community and demonstrating its commitment to the firefighting industry.
- Apple Rating Maintained: Citigroup reiterates Apple as a buy despite trimming its second-half earnings estimates, projecting a 140bps and 48bps gross margin headwind in 2026 and 2027, indicating Apple's relative strength in navigating memory component price hikes.
- Oracle Price Target Cut: Deutsche Bank lowers Oracle's price target from $375 to $300 while maintaining a buy rating, reflecting concerns over extended timelines to resolve issues that could impact equity performance in the coming quarters.
- Nvidia Core Holding: Citigroup reaffirms Nvidia as a core holding, emphasizing its pivotal role in agentic and physical AI, showcasing confidence in the company's growth potential in these critical sectors.
- Netflix Downgrade: Wells Fargo downgrades Netflix from overweight to equal weight, citing the need for continued investment to drive growth and concerns over its competitive positioning in the market, indicating a cautious outlook on its future performance.
- Stake Change: Lodge Hill Capital disclosed on February 17, 2026, that it fully liquidated its position in Terex, selling 529,450 shares valued at approximately $27.16 million, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Market Performance: Despite Terex's stock rising 67% over the past year to $67.76 per share, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% increase, Lodge Hill's exit may reflect concerns over market volatility, particularly as the company undergoes a structural transformation.
- Financial Overview: Terex reported total sales of $5.4 billion for fiscal year 2025, with adjusted EPS of $4.93 and free cash flow of $325 million, representing a 147% conversion rate, showcasing strong financial health, yet future profitability remains uncertain.
- Strategic Risks: As the REV merger progresses, Terex's earnings structure is being reshaped; although management anticipates sales of $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion in 2026, integration risks, tariff exposure, and industrial cycle fluctuations could impact the company's long-term performance.
- Position Change: Lodge Hill Capital sold 529,450 shares of Terex in Q4, resulting in a $27.16 million decrease in the position's quarter-end value, indicating a waning confidence in the stock.
- Asset Management Ratio: Previously, Terex accounted for approximately 4.85% of the fund's assets under management, and the complete exit suggests a reevaluation of risk and return within the fund's investment strategy.
- Financial Performance: Terex reported full-year 2025 sales of $5.4 billion with adjusted EPS of $4.93, demonstrating strong market demand, although the fund's exit may impact short-term stock performance.
- Market Outlook: While Terex is undergoing a structural shift with management projecting 2026 sales of $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion, the fund's exit may reflect concerns over cyclical risks in the industry.










