Upstart Reports Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 10 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPST?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: Upstart reported a GAAP EPS of $0.17 for Q4, exceeding expectations by $0.02, which reflects the company's ongoing improvement in profitability and boosts investor confidence.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $296.09 million, a 35.2% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations by $7.53 million, indicating strong performance in the personal loan market and a rebound in market demand.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: Upstart anticipates total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion for 2026, significantly above the consensus of $1.27 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth, particularly with fee revenue projected to reach $1.3 billion.
- Strong Adjusted EBITDA: The expected adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 21% indicates effective strategies in cost control and profitability enhancement, further solidifying its position in the competitive fintech landscape.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 25.360
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 25.360
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upstart Revolutionizes Lending with AI Technology
- Increased Approval Rates: Upstart's AI-powered algorithm utilizes over 2,500 data points to achieve a 43% higher loan approval rate compared to traditional methods, which not only reduces default rates but also enhances customer satisfaction and strengthens market competitiveness.
- Significant Revenue Growth: After navigating the turbulence caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Upstart achieved a 64% revenue growth in 2024, totaling $1 billion, and successfully turned a profit of $53.6 million, demonstrating the resilience and potential of its business model.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite Upstart's achievement of 1.5 million loan originations, the vast U.S. lending market still offers significant growth opportunities, with traditional credit agencies like Equifax and TransUnion beginning to adopt AI technology, posing a potential threat to Upstart's market share.
- Technological Lead Advantage: Although competition is increasing, Upstart has built substantial experience in AI applications since its founding in 2012, and is expected to maintain a competitive edge for the foreseeable future, even though its long-term market position may face challenges.
See More
Upstart: Disruptor in AI Credit Scoring
- Increased Approval Rates: Upstart's AI-driven algorithm analyzes over 2,500 data points, resulting in a 43% higher loan approval rate compared to traditional methods, which not only reduces default risks but also enhances customer satisfaction and market competitiveness.
- Significant Revenue Growth: In 2024, Upstart achieved a 64% revenue growth totaling $1 billion, swinging to a profit of $53.6 million, demonstrating the sustainability of its business model and the recovery of market demand.
- Rising Competition Risks: While Upstart leads in AI credit scoring, traditional competitors like Equifax and TransUnion are rapidly launching their own AI solutions, which could undermine Upstart's market share and growth potential.
- Increased Investor Interest: Although Upstart did not make it onto The Motley Fool's list of top stocks, its innovations in AI continue to attract investor attention, potentially yielding substantial returns in the short term.
See More
Analysis of Short Selling in Financial Stocks
- Concentration of Shorts: At the end of March, the most shorted financial stocks with market caps over $2 billion were primarily in fintech, alternative asset management, and mortgage-linked businesses, indicating investor caution towards firms exposed to credit, payments, and housing cycles.
- Short Interest Comparison: Among the top five most shorted stocks, Upstart Holdings had a short interest of 29.27%, while Shift4 Payments and Blue Owl Capital had 21.57% and 18.84% respectively, reflecting market skepticism about their profitability.
- Investor Confidence: In contrast, the least shorted stocks were dominated by large, diversified financial institutions like Mastercard and JPMorgan Chase, with Mastercard's short interest at just 0.71%, showcasing investor confidence in their stable earnings and resilience amid macro uncertainty.
- Market Dynamics Impact: As concerns grow over fintech and mortgage companies, investors may reassess the risks associated with these firms, potentially impacting their stock performance, especially in the context of an economic slowdown.
See More
Upstart Stock Rebounds with Promising Profit Outlook
- Return to Profitability: After three consecutive years of losses, Upstart became profitable again in 2025, marking a recovery in its business model, particularly as interest rates declined, which is expected to attract more investor attention.
- Accelerated Loan Growth: Following six consecutive rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and 2025, Upstart's loan growth rate rebounded from -59% in 2023 to 115% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in market demand.
- Optimistic Revenue Outlook: Analysts project Upstart's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 31% and 92%, respectively, from 2025 to 2028, reflecting the ongoing expansion of its customer base and market potential.
- Attractive Market Valuation: Despite Upstart's enterprise value of $3.3 billion, its price-to-sales ratio stands at only two times this year's sales, indicating historical undervaluation under its long-term growth potential, which may present a good buying opportunity for investors.
See More
Upstart Returns to Profitability Amidst Declining Interest Rates
- Return to Profitability: After three consecutive years of losses, Upstart achieved profitability again in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery of its business amidst declining interest rates, showcasing the company's resilience and potential in the market.
- Loan Growth Rebound: Following six consecutive rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and 2025, Upstart's loan origination growth rate rebounded from -59% in 2023 to 28%, suggesting that its business model is regaining momentum in a low-interest environment.
- Revenue and Earnings Outlook: Analysts expect Upstart's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 31% and 92%, respectively, from 2025 to 2028, reflecting a continued expansion of its customer base and a recovery in market demand.
- Attractive Market Valuation: With an enterprise value of $3.3 billion, Upstart's current sales multiple of just 2 times indicates that its stock remains historically undervalued, potentially attracting more investors to its long-term growth prospects.
See More
Miami International Holdings and Upstart Growth Potential Analysis
- Growth Potential Assessment: Motley Fool contributors Jason Hall and Tyler Crowe highlight Miami International Holdings (MIAX) and Upstart (UPST) as growth stocks with the potential to double over the long term, reflecting optimistic market expectations for both companies' future performance.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of March 13, 2026, Miami International Holdings' stock price saw a slight increase of 0.03%, indicating investor confidence in its growth prospects, which may attract more capital inflow.
- Investor Attention: The video, published on March 30, 2026, suggests that analysts' recommendations on these stocks could influence investor decisions, potentially driving stock prices higher.
- Long-Term Investment Strategy: Analysts emphasize the strategy of selecting these growth stocks for long-term investment to capitalize on their potential high returns, reflecting a deep understanding of market trends and forward-looking positioning.
See More
Upstart Revolutionizes Lending with AI Technology
- Increased Approval Rates: Upstart's AI-powered algorithm utilizes over 2,500 data points to achieve a 43% higher loan approval rate compared to traditional methods, which not only reduces default rates but also enhances customer satisfaction and strengthens market competitiveness.
- Significant Revenue Growth: After navigating the turbulence caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Upstart achieved a 64% revenue growth in 2024, totaling $1 billion, and successfully turned a profit of $53.6 million, demonstrating the resilience and potential of its business model.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite Upstart's achievement of 1.5 million loan originations, the vast U.S. lending market still offers significant growth opportunities, with traditional credit agencies like Equifax and TransUnion beginning to adopt AI technology, posing a potential threat to Upstart's market share.
- Technological Lead Advantage: Although competition is increasing, Upstart has built substantial experience in AI applications since its founding in 2012, and is expected to maintain a competitive edge for the foreseeable future, even though its long-term market position may face challenges.
See More
Upstart: Disruptor in AI Credit Scoring
- Increased Approval Rates: Upstart's AI-driven algorithm analyzes over 2,500 data points, resulting in a 43% higher loan approval rate compared to traditional methods, which not only reduces default risks but also enhances customer satisfaction and market competitiveness.
- Significant Revenue Growth: In 2024, Upstart achieved a 64% revenue growth totaling $1 billion, swinging to a profit of $53.6 million, demonstrating the sustainability of its business model and the recovery of market demand.
- Rising Competition Risks: While Upstart leads in AI credit scoring, traditional competitors like Equifax and TransUnion are rapidly launching their own AI solutions, which could undermine Upstart's market share and growth potential.
- Increased Investor Interest: Although Upstart did not make it onto The Motley Fool's list of top stocks, its innovations in AI continue to attract investor attention, potentially yielding substantial returns in the short term.
See More
Analysis of Short Selling in Financial Stocks
- Concentration of Shorts: At the end of March, the most shorted financial stocks with market caps over $2 billion were primarily in fintech, alternative asset management, and mortgage-linked businesses, indicating investor caution towards firms exposed to credit, payments, and housing cycles.
- Short Interest Comparison: Among the top five most shorted stocks, Upstart Holdings had a short interest of 29.27%, while Shift4 Payments and Blue Owl Capital had 21.57% and 18.84% respectively, reflecting market skepticism about their profitability.
- Investor Confidence: In contrast, the least shorted stocks were dominated by large, diversified financial institutions like Mastercard and JPMorgan Chase, with Mastercard's short interest at just 0.71%, showcasing investor confidence in their stable earnings and resilience amid macro uncertainty.
- Market Dynamics Impact: As concerns grow over fintech and mortgage companies, investors may reassess the risks associated with these firms, potentially impacting their stock performance, especially in the context of an economic slowdown.
See More
Upstart Stock Rebounds with Promising Profit Outlook
- Return to Profitability: After three consecutive years of losses, Upstart became profitable again in 2025, marking a recovery in its business model, particularly as interest rates declined, which is expected to attract more investor attention.
- Accelerated Loan Growth: Following six consecutive rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and 2025, Upstart's loan growth rate rebounded from -59% in 2023 to 115% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in market demand.
- Optimistic Revenue Outlook: Analysts project Upstart's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 31% and 92%, respectively, from 2025 to 2028, reflecting the ongoing expansion of its customer base and market potential.
- Attractive Market Valuation: Despite Upstart's enterprise value of $3.3 billion, its price-to-sales ratio stands at only two times this year's sales, indicating historical undervaluation under its long-term growth potential, which may present a good buying opportunity for investors.
See More
Upstart Returns to Profitability Amidst Declining Interest Rates
- Return to Profitability: After three consecutive years of losses, Upstart achieved profitability again in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery of its business amidst declining interest rates, showcasing the company's resilience and potential in the market.
- Loan Growth Rebound: Following six consecutive rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and 2025, Upstart's loan origination growth rate rebounded from -59% in 2023 to 28%, suggesting that its business model is regaining momentum in a low-interest environment.
- Revenue and Earnings Outlook: Analysts expect Upstart's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 31% and 92%, respectively, from 2025 to 2028, reflecting a continued expansion of its customer base and a recovery in market demand.
- Attractive Market Valuation: With an enterprise value of $3.3 billion, Upstart's current sales multiple of just 2 times indicates that its stock remains historically undervalued, potentially attracting more investors to its long-term growth prospects.
See More
Miami International Holdings and Upstart Growth Potential Analysis
- Growth Potential Assessment: Motley Fool contributors Jason Hall and Tyler Crowe highlight Miami International Holdings (MIAX) and Upstart (UPST) as growth stocks with the potential to double over the long term, reflecting optimistic market expectations for both companies' future performance.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of March 13, 2026, Miami International Holdings' stock price saw a slight increase of 0.03%, indicating investor confidence in its growth prospects, which may attract more capital inflow.
- Investor Attention: The video, published on March 30, 2026, suggests that analysts' recommendations on these stocks could influence investor decisions, potentially driving stock prices higher.
- Long-Term Investment Strategy: Analysts emphasize the strategy of selecting these growth stocks for long-term investment to capitalize on their potential high returns, reflecting a deep understanding of market trends and forward-looking positioning.
See More
