Amgen Earnings Preview: Transitioning Story, To Growth From Value
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 21 2013
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Should l Buy AMGN?
Source: SeekingAlpha
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Analyst Views on AMGN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMGN stock price to fall
24 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 379.330
Low
280.00
Averages
363.10
High
425.00
Current: 379.330
Low
280.00
Averages
363.10
High
425.00
About AMGN
Amgen Inc. is a biotechnology company. It discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers medicines for the toughest diseases. It focuses on areas of high unmet medical need and leverages its expertise to strive for solutions that improve people’s lives. It operates in the human therapeutics segment. Its marketed products portfolio includes EPOGEN (epoetin alfa); Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa); Parsabiv (etelcalcetide); Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); KANJINTI (trastuzumab-anns); Otezla; BLINCYTO (blinatumomab); ACTIMMUNE (interferon gamma-1b); Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); Sensipar/Mimpara (cinacalcet); Prolia (denosumab); ENBREL; QUINSAIR (levofloxacin); Repatha (evolocumab) and others. It markets ENBREL, a tumor necrosis factor blocker, in the United States and Canada. It markets Otezla, a small molecule that inhibits phosphodiesterase 4, in many countries around the world. It markets Repatha, a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, in many countries around the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Intense Market Competition: Despite advancements in eye inflammation treatment, the dry eye therapy market is highly competitive, with five innovative drugs already approved in China and another ten candidates at Phase Two or beyond, posing significant commercialization challenges.
See More
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- Sales Forecast Downgrade: Novo Nordisk anticipates a 5% to 13% decline in sales and profits for 2026, marking the first annual sales drop since 2017, reflecting the company's vulnerability amid fierce competition and pricing pressures, which may further erode investor confidence.
- Drug Development Challenges: The disappointing trial results of Novo's next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema against Eli Lilly's Zepbound led to a more than 16% drop in stock price on the day of the announcement, significantly diminishing analysts' confidence in its commercial potential and possibly affecting future market performance.
- Increasing Pricing Pressure: The decline in GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S. is weighing on Novo Nordisk's revenue and profitability, especially since the U.S. market has accounted for over half of its total sales since 2023, making future pricing strategies critical for the company's ability to regain growth.
See More
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- Clinical Trial Comparison: Eli Lilly's Zepbound demonstrated superior efficacy in a head-to-head trial, with participants losing an average of 25.5% of their body weight compared to Novo Nordisk's CagriSema at 23%, reinforcing Lilly's leadership in obesity drug effectiveness and solidifying its market position.
- New Device Launch: Lilly introduced a new Zepbound injection device in the U.S. that provides a month's supply, enhancing patient convenience; while the immediate financial impact may be limited, it showcases Lilly's supply chain advantages and commitment to patient care.
- Significant Market Reaction: Following disappointing trial results, Novo Nordisk's shares fell over 15%, while Lilly's stock rose more than 4%, reflecting investor confidence in Lilly's growth potential and widening the gap between the two companies in the market.
- Future Development Potential: Lilly is advancing multiple next-generation obesity treatments, including retatrutide and eloralintide, targeting appetite-related hormones, with analysts noting that Lilly's competitive edge is expanding, positioning the company for further market leadership in the obesity drug sector.
See More
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- Blue Owl Capital Loan Sales: Blue Owl Capital's loan sales are part of a plan to return capital to investors, and while observers have raised 'canary in the coal mine' warnings regarding mispriced private credit loans, the situation does not appear tragic, potentially offering market opportunities.
- Weak U.S. GDP: The preliminary fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth came in at just 1.4%, significantly below expectations, with the government shutdown likely dragging on growth, leading to market concerns about future economic recovery challenges.
- Texas Roadhouse Strong Performance: Texas Roadhouse shares rose over 3% in early trading, as the market overlooked a weak fourth quarter due to a strong start in Q1, indicating sustained consumer demand for dining despite ongoing beef inflation challenges.
- Klarna's Disappointing Earnings: Klarna reported a wider-than-expected net loss for the quarter, and its fiscal 2026 outlook fell short across key metrics, prompting JPMorgan and UBS to cut their price targets to $20, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
See More
Barclays Optimistic on Eli Lilly's Leadership in GLP-1 Market
- Market Leadership: Barclays initiated coverage on Eli Lilly with an overweight rating and a $1,350 price target, indicating a 32% upside, reflecting confidence in its position in the GLP-1 drug market.
- Product Competitiveness: Analyst Emily Field highlighted that Eli Lilly's tirzepatide is the best product available today in terms of safety and efficacy, likely maintaining market leadership despite competition from AstraZeneca and Amgen.
- Future Growth Potential: Field expects investor focus to shift towards Eli Lilly's upcoming orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 medication anticipated to be approved in Q2 2026, which could further solidify its market position.
- Consumer Platform Advantage: Eli Lilly's strong patient-centric focus and direct-to-consumer platform, Lilly Direct, are seen as significant barriers for new entrants, ensuring that despite market price resets, Lilly remains the best option in this space.
See More
Market Rotation and Healthcare Sector Outlook
- Market Milestones: The S&P 500 recently hit the 7,000 mark but failed to close above it, indicating market fragility at high levels, which could affect investor confidence and lead to short-term volatility.
- Sector Leadership Shift: In 2026, sectors like energy, materials, and staples have shown impressive gains of 22.5%, 16.9%, and 13.3%, respectively, but these sectors typically lead near market tops, suggesting current leadership may lack sustainability.
- Healthcare Sector Recovery: The healthcare ETF (XLV) is up only 1.9% year-to-date, yet major components like Merck, Johnson & Johnson, and Amgen are trading near 52-week highs, indicating potential upside and positioning it as a likely next market leader.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: Investors should focus on the healthcare sector's technical breakout, particularly the crucial $160 level; if cleared, upside targets could reach the mid-180s, signaling increasing investment opportunities in the healthcare sector within the current market environment.
See More
