Tencent Music Stock Plummets After Q4 Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TME?
Source: seekingalpha
- Stock Decline: Tencent Music (TME) is set to lose nearly a third of its value since reporting Q4 results, with an 8% drop in afternoon trading on Wednesday and a nearly 25% decline in the previous session, indicating significant market concerns about its future performance.
- Analyst Downgrades: Following the earnings report, at least four research firms have downgraded TME's rating to 'neutral' or 'hold', with J.P. Morgan changing its rating from 'overweight' to 'neutral', highlighting a diversification in business amid slowing subscription revenue growth.
- Reduced KPI Transparency: Tencent Music announced in its Q4 report that it will discontinue the disclosure of certain quarterly operating metrics, including online music MAU, paying users, and ARPPU, opting instead to report total paying users annually, which diminishes the transparency investors relied on for the subscription narrative.
- Intensifying Competition and Growth Slowdown: Benchmark downgraded its rating from 'buy' to 'hold', anticipating that intense competition will pressure subscription growth, while rapid shifts in content creation and consumption driven by AI will introduce new structural challenges, leading to a potential reset in revenue and earnings expectations.
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Analyst Views on TME
Wall Street analysts forecast TME stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.310
Low
21.00
Averages
26.13
High
29.00
Current: 9.310
Low
21.00
Averages
26.13
High
29.00
About TME
Tencent Music Entertainment Group is a holding company mainly engaged in the provision and operation of online music entertainment platform. The Company is mainly engaged in the provision of online music services, social entertainment services and other services. The Company operates four major product brands, QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music and WeSing, through which the Company provides online music and social entertainment services to address the music entertainment needs of audience in China. The Company also offers Lazy Audio, the dedicated long-form audio app as a complement to the flagship music-centric product portfolio.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Diverse Tracklist: The album features 13 tracks, including 12 new compositions that blend classical, Chinese-style music, romantic ballads, and Western rap, with a special song dedicated to his youngest daughter, showcasing his musical versatility.
- Integrated Promotion: Tencent Music launched teaser content and interactive fan activities online, while offline, themed installations were activated in 48 cities across 74 landmark locations, including drone light shows, enhancing fan engagement and album visibility.
- Global Marketing Strategy: The long-term partnership between Tencent Music and JVR Music has accelerated the global rollout of the album, with plans for large-format digital billboards in Times Square and major commercial districts, further expanding the album's international reach.
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- Increased Competitive Pressure: UBS downgraded Tencent Music from Buy to Neutral and cut its target price from $26 to $13, highlighting concerns over the company's growth in a competitive landscape, particularly due to the impact of AI technologies.
- Earnings Report Impact: Following the fourth-quarter earnings report, analysts noted the company's struggle to balance short-term performance metrics with long-term strategic execution, which negatively affected its outlook amid competition from rapidly growing platforms like Soda Music.
- User Growth Constraints: Despite a sales boost in the fourth quarter, Tencent Music faces limitations in increasing basic subscribers and ARPPU, with the emergence of AI-generated music intensifying competitive pressures and impacting the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
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- Significant Stock Decline: Tencent Music's shares fell 28.8% this week, bringing its market cap down to $5.9 billion, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future performance amid a competitive market landscape.
- Earnings Report Concerns: Although the fourth-quarter revenue grew 15.9% to $1.24 billion, beating expectations, the adjusted earnings per ADS only increased by 8.8%, indicating that profit growth is lagging behind revenue, which may suggest competitive pressures.
- Reduction in Key Metrics Disclosure: Management announced it would no longer disclose key performance indicators such as monthly active users, paying user counts, and average revenue per user, focusing instead on total paying users at year-end, which has raised further investor skepticism.
- Value Investment Opportunity: Following the stock's sharp decline, Tencent Music trades at just 11.5 times trailing adjusted earnings, and despite slowing revenue and earnings, it managed nearly 22% adjusted earnings growth for 2025, potentially offering a low-entry point for value investors comfortable with Chinese stocks.
See More
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- Mediocre Profit Performance: Despite strong revenue growth, adjusted earnings per share rose only 8.8%, just meeting expectations, indicating potential pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Reduction in Key Metrics Disclosure: Management announced it would no longer disclose key operational metrics such as monthly active users, number of paying users, and average revenue per user, raising concerns about transparency and contributing to a significant stock price drop.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: Following a 28.8% decline in stock price, Tencent Music's P/E ratio has fallen to 11.5 times, and despite facing growth slowdowns, it is viewed as a potential buying opportunity for value investors.
See More
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- CrowdStrike Upgrade: Analysts upgraded CrowdStrike (CRWD) from Sell to Hold, citing a record customer acquisition in Q4 and strong enterprise demand, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth indicating sustained potential in the cybersecurity sector.
- Arm Holdings Outlook: Arm Holdings (ARM) was also upgraded to Hold; despite smartphone market concerns, analysts highlighted resilient royalty revenue from v9 and CSS architectures, along with AI chip development opportunities with Nvidia and MediaTek that could drive future growth.
- Tencent Music Downgrade: Tencent Music (TME) was downgraded from Buy to Hold, as analysts expressed concerns over reduced data transparency and intensified competition, despite faster revenue growth in Q4 2025, suggesting prolonged competitive pressures ahead.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Tencent Music achieved total revenue of RMB 8.6 billion in Q4 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, with online music service revenue reaching RMB 26.7 billion, up 23%, indicating strong market demand and business expansion capabilities.
- Strong Subscription Performance: Music subscription revenue reached RMB 4.6 billion in Q4 2025, up 13% year-on-year, demonstrating the company's success in user retention and engagement, particularly with SVIP memberships surpassing 20 million.
- Robust Non-Subscription Services: Revenue from other music services grew by 41% year-on-year to RMB 2.5 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting the company's successful expansion into non-subscription offerings such as live concerts and merchandise, enhancing revenue diversity.
- Improved Profitability: Net profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 2.3 billion, up 10% year-on-year, while non-IFRS net profit was RMB 2.6 billion, up 8%, showcasing the company's effectiveness in managing operating expenses despite facing intense market competition.
See More
Jay Chou's New Album Sales Exceed 100 Million RMB
- Album Launch Success: Jay Chou's 16th studio album, 'Children of the Sun,' premiered on March 25 with exclusive release on Tencent Music, achieving over 100 million RMB in sales since pre-orders began on March 19, underscoring his lasting market appeal.
- Diverse Tracklist: The album features 13 tracks, including 12 new compositions that blend classical, Chinese-style music, romantic ballads, and Western rap, with a special song dedicated to his youngest daughter, showcasing his musical versatility.
- Integrated Promotion: Tencent Music launched teaser content and interactive fan activities online, while offline, themed installations were activated in 48 cities across 74 landmark locations, including drone light shows, enhancing fan engagement and album visibility.
- Global Marketing Strategy: The long-term partnership between Tencent Music and JVR Music has accelerated the global rollout of the album, with plans for large-format digital billboards in Times Square and major commercial districts, further expanding the album's international reach.
See More
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- Price Target Adjustment: Mizuho reduced Tencent Music's price target from $28 to $23 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating a potential upside of 131%, which reflects cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: UBS downgraded Tencent Music from Buy to Neutral and cut its target price from $26 to $13, highlighting concerns over the company's growth in a competitive landscape, particularly due to the impact of AI technologies.
- Earnings Report Impact: Following the fourth-quarter earnings report, analysts noted the company's struggle to balance short-term performance metrics with long-term strategic execution, which negatively affected its outlook amid competition from rapidly growing platforms like Soda Music.
- User Growth Constraints: Despite a sales boost in the fourth quarter, Tencent Music faces limitations in increasing basic subscribers and ARPPU, with the emergence of AI-generated music intensifying competitive pressures and impacting the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
Tencent Music Shares Plunge 28.8% Amid Investor Concerns
- Significant Stock Decline: Tencent Music's shares fell 28.8% this week, bringing its market cap down to $5.9 billion, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future performance amid a competitive market landscape.
- Earnings Report Concerns: Although the fourth-quarter revenue grew 15.9% to $1.24 billion, beating expectations, the adjusted earnings per ADS only increased by 8.8%, indicating that profit growth is lagging behind revenue, which may suggest competitive pressures.
- Reduction in Key Metrics Disclosure: Management announced it would no longer disclose key performance indicators such as monthly active users, paying user counts, and average revenue per user, focusing instead on total paying users at year-end, which has raised further investor skepticism.
- Value Investment Opportunity: Following the stock's sharp decline, Tencent Music trades at just 11.5 times trailing adjusted earnings, and despite slowing revenue and earnings, it managed nearly 22% adjusted earnings growth for 2025, potentially offering a low-entry point for value investors comfortable with Chinese stocks.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Tencent Music's Q4 revenue increased by 15.9% year-over-year to $1.24 billion, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating resilience in a competitive streaming music market.
- Mediocre Profit Performance: Despite strong revenue growth, adjusted earnings per share rose only 8.8%, just meeting expectations, indicating potential pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Reduction in Key Metrics Disclosure: Management announced it would no longer disclose key operational metrics such as monthly active users, number of paying users, and average revenue per user, raising concerns about transparency and contributing to a significant stock price drop.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: Following a 28.8% decline in stock price, Tencent Music's P/E ratio has fallen to 11.5 times, and despite facing growth slowdowns, it is viewed as a potential buying opportunity for value investors.
See More
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- CrowdStrike Upgrade: Analysts upgraded CrowdStrike (CRWD) from Sell to Hold, citing a record customer acquisition in Q4 and strong enterprise demand, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth indicating sustained potential in the cybersecurity sector.
- Arm Holdings Outlook: Arm Holdings (ARM) was also upgraded to Hold; despite smartphone market concerns, analysts highlighted resilient royalty revenue from v9 and CSS architectures, along with AI chip development opportunities with Nvidia and MediaTek that could drive future growth.
- Tencent Music Downgrade: Tencent Music (TME) was downgraded from Buy to Hold, as analysts expressed concerns over reduced data transparency and intensified competition, despite faster revenue growth in Q4 2025, suggesting prolonged competitive pressures ahead.
- Uber Challenges: Uber (UBER) was downgraded to Hold, with analysts noting slowing revenue growth and competitive threats from autonomous vehicles, indicating a pricing ceiling that could hinder future profitability and market position.
See More
Tencent Music Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Growth
- Significant Revenue Growth: Tencent Music achieved total revenue of RMB 8.6 billion in Q4 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, with online music service revenue reaching RMB 26.7 billion, up 23%, indicating strong market demand and business expansion capabilities.
- Strong Subscription Performance: Music subscription revenue reached RMB 4.6 billion in Q4 2025, up 13% year-on-year, demonstrating the company's success in user retention and engagement, particularly with SVIP memberships surpassing 20 million.
- Robust Non-Subscription Services: Revenue from other music services grew by 41% year-on-year to RMB 2.5 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting the company's successful expansion into non-subscription offerings such as live concerts and merchandise, enhancing revenue diversity.
- Improved Profitability: Net profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 2.3 billion, up 10% year-on-year, while non-IFRS net profit was RMB 2.6 billion, up 8%, showcasing the company's effectiveness in managing operating expenses despite facing intense market competition.
See More
