Should I Buy TME? TME 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

16.770

1 Day change

-2.67%

52 Week Range

26.700

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company has shown solid financial growth in the latest quarter, technical indicators are neutral to bearish, and there are no strong positive catalysts or trading signals to suggest immediate upside potential. The stock may be worth monitoring for better entry points or stronger signals.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators for TME show a mixed to bearish trend. The MACD is below zero and negatively contracting, the RSI is neutral at 50.544, and the moving averages indicate a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its pivot point of 16.865, with resistance at 17.678 and support at 16.051.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The open interest put-call ratio and option volume put-call ratio suggest a slightly bullish sentiment, but the implied volatility percentile (32.4) and IV rank (10.97) indicate low volatility expectations.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue up 20.64% YoY, net income up 36.01% YoY, and EPS up 38.00% YoY. Gross margin also improved by 2.04% YoY.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Analyst price targets have been lowered by multiple firms, citing concerns over competition and margin pressures. Technical indicators are not signaling a strong upward trend. No recent news or significant trading activity from hedge funds, insiders, or Congress.

Financial Performance

Tencent Music delivered strong Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing to $8.46 billion (up 20.64% YoY), net income rising to $2.15 billion (up 36.01% YoY), and EPS growing to $0.69 (up 38.00% YoY). Gross margin also improved to 43.51%, up 2.04% YoY.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed to cautious. While firms like Citi and Barclays maintain a positive outlook with Buy ratings, others like BofA and Morgan Stanley have lowered price targets and earnings forecasts, citing competition and margin pressures. The consensus suggests a lack of imminent re-rating catalysts.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TME stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TME is 26.13 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 29 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 17.230

Low

Averages

26.13

High

Current: 17.230

Low

Averages

26.13

High

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

downgrade

$25

AI Analysis

2025-12-22

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$25

AI Analysis

2025-12-22

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $25 from $27.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm reduced its bull case valuation by 17% to $28, given that approval of the Ximalaya deal may still take time, and increased its bear case by 1.8% to $16.80 as it rolled forward its valuation by three months, the analyst tells investors.

BofA

Neutral

downgrade

$25 -> $21

2025-11-26

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$25 -> $21

2025-11-26

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $21 from $25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after having hosted the company's investor relations team during the firm's AI Tech/Internet Conference on November 24. The firm, which lowered FY25-27 earnings forecasts and continues to believe the stock is fairly traded with no imminent re-rating catalyst, adds that it sees Tencent Music's core user-paying proposition as "untouched" by Bytedance's Soda Music.

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TME Should I Buy

TME Should I Buy

Should You Buy Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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