RTH and VDC: Two ETFs That May Perform Strongly Following Walmart's Q3 Earnings Report
Walmart Q3 Earnings Expectations: Walmart is expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.61 per share, a 5.2% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $177.14 billion, up 4.5% from the previous year.
ETFs Offering Walmart Exposure: Investors can consider ETFs like RTH and VDC for indirect exposure to Walmart, with RTH holding 9.48% of Walmart and VDC holding 14.26%, providing a diversified investment option in the retail sector.
RTH ETF Performance: The RTH ETF, focused on consumer discretionary stocks, has $253.85 million in assets and a year-to-date increase of 11%, with a Strong Buy consensus rating and a price target suggesting a 22.70% upside.
VDC ETF Overview: The VDC ETF, tracking large-cap consumer staples, has $7.19 billion in assets, a 0.58% year-to-date increase, and a Moderate Buy consensus rating, indicating a 17.03% upside potential.
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- Changing Consumer Trends: According to a survey by the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, 72% of LGBTQ+ consumers report reducing purchases from companies perceived to be scaling back on diversity and inclusion commitments, highlighting consumer sensitivity to corporate social responsibility.
- Brand Loyalty Shifts: The survey indicates that Target, Walmart, and Amazon are viewed as companies losing support, while Costco, Apple, and Kroger gained favor due to their strong DEI policies, reflecting the direct impact of brand image on consumer behavior.
- Significant Economic Impact: The National LGBT Chamber of Commerce estimates that LGBTQ+ consumers represent over $1.7 trillion in economic spending power in the U.S., compelling businesses to take their diversity and inclusion policies seriously to maintain market share.
- Corporate Responses and Challenges: While Amazon claims to continue supporting its employees and diverse customer base, Target faced backlash from both political sides over its DEI policies, leading to reduced sales in summer 2023, illustrating how corporate stances on DEI can significantly affect sales performance.
- Changing Consumer Trends: Research from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation reveals that nearly 72% of LGBTQ+ consumers are reducing purchases from companies perceived to be diminishing their diversity and inclusion commitments, highlighting a significant consumer focus on corporate social responsibility.
- Brand Impact: The survey identifies Target, Walmart, Amazon, Chick-Fil-A, and Home Depot as the companies most frequently linked to reduced spending, indicating that shortcomings in diversity and inclusion policies can lead to customer attrition.
- Rewarding Supportive Brands: Nearly 70% of LGBTQ+ consumers report increasing spending on companies they view as supportive of diversity and inclusion, with Costco, Apple, Ben & Jerry's, Delta Air Lines, and Kroger cited as beneficiaries, demonstrating that corporate social responsibility can effectively enhance customer loyalty.
- Significant Market Potential: The National LGBT Chamber of Commerce estimates that LGBTQ+ consumers contribute over $1.7 trillion to the U.S. economy, suggesting that investments in diversity and inclusion are not only a moral obligation but also a strategic move to capture a substantial market share.
- Membership Advantage: Costco generates nearly all its profit from membership fees, having raised them for the first time in nearly a decade in 2024, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability in a fiercely competitive retail market.
- Unique Shopping Experience: Costco attracts high-income consumers with a shopping experience that, despite zero advertising spend, is showcased through numerous social media videos, indicating strong brand loyalty that may underpin future sales growth.
- Walmart's Market Adaptation: Walmart leverages its scale to attract customers with the lowest prices, with 90% of Americans living within 10 miles of a store, and its e-commerce business has seen over 20% growth for five consecutive quarters, demonstrating resilience in competition.
- Valuation and Growth Expectations: Costco's stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 49, while analysts project only 9% to 10% annual earnings growth in the long term, potentially leading to disappointing returns for investors waiting for performance to align with its high valuation.
- Cloud Growth Comparison: Google Cloud achieved a 63% year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2025, while Amazon Web Services reported a 28% growth rate, indicating Google's rapid expansion in the cloud sector, which may further solidify its market leadership.
- Margin Differences: Alphabet consistently maintains a net profit margin above 30%, recently nearing 60%, while Amazon's net profit margin hovers around low double digits, highlighting Google's superior profitability and enhancing its flexibility for AI investments and stock buybacks.
- Investment Return Analysis: In Q1 2025, Amazon's net income included $16.8 billion from an early investment in Anthropic, while Google benefited from a $36.9 billion gain from its investment in SpaceX, illustrating differing investment strategies that impact financial performance.
- Market Performance Discrepancy: Over the past year, Amazon's stock rose by 12%, lagging behind the S&P 500, while Alphabet's stock more than doubled, showcasing a significant disparity in market performance that is likely to widen in future quarters.
- Cloud Growth: Google Cloud achieved a 63% year-over-year growth rate in Q1, while Amazon Web Services saw a 28% increase, demonstrating Google's strong performance driven by enterprise AI demand, further solidifying its market position.
- Margin Comparison: Alphabet's net profit margin typically reaches 30%, soaring to 60% this quarter due to early investments in SpaceX and Anthropic, while Amazon's net profit margin at 13.6% appears less impressive, highlighting Google's profitability advantage.
- Investment Flexibility: With a 46.3% operating margin, Alphabet can accelerate AI investments and stock buybacks faster than Amazon, which is constrained by lower margins, potentially impacting future growth prospects.
- Market Performance Gap: Over the past year, Amazon's stock rose 12%, trailing the S&P 500, while Alphabet's stock more than doubled, indicating a significant disparity in market performance that may widen in the future.
- Earnings Acceleration Trend: Costco's expected earnings growth rate of 13.3% indicates its robust performance in the membership warehouse market, likely attracting more investor attention and driving stock price increases.
- Strong Growth Potential: Cummins boasts an expected earnings growth rate of 23.2%, and its diversified presence in the global power solutions market enhances its competitive edge, potentially increasing shareholder returns.
- Industry-Leading Performance: Kennametal's expected earnings growth rate of 123.1% highlights its leadership in advanced materials and industrial solutions, which may draw significant investor interest.
- Increased Market Attention: As the trend of earnings acceleration becomes evident, investor focus on these three companies (Costco, Cummins, and Kennametal) is expected to rise significantly, potentially leading to positive stock price reactions and boosting market investment enthusiasm.











