Rocket Lab Aims for Neutron Rocket Launch in Q4 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy RKLB?
Source: stocktwits
- Launch Progress: Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck announced that the company is on track to launch its reusable Neutron rocket in Q4 2026, contingent on the successful testing of the Archimedes engine, which would facilitate entry into the $5.6 billion U.S. Government's NSSL Lane 1 program.
- Engine Testing Challenges: The Archimedes engine is undergoing “nasty” tests, with Beck emphasizing that while launching is relatively straightforward, ensuring the rocket's reusability is equally crucial, directly impacting the company's long-term sustainable growth.
- Stock Price Surge: Rocket Lab's stock surged over 10% on Thursday, reaching an over two-month high of $82, with retail investor sentiment shifting from neutral to bullish, as expectations for the Neutron launch could push the stock price beyond $100.
- Clear Strategic Goals: Beck noted that while the successful launch of Neutron would be a commercial milestone, it is not mission-critical, as the company is also focusing on other significant projects that could drive business growth in the next 12 to 24 months, aiming to establish a sustainable space business model.
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Analyst Views on RKLB
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 82.930
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
Current: 82.930
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
About RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation is an end-to-end space company. The Company designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets, spacecraft and spacecraft components, and related software and services to support the space economy. The Company delivers reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it easier to access space. Its Launch Services segment provides launch and launch-related services to customers on a dedicated mission or ride-share basis. Its Space Systems segment comprises the design and manufacture of spacecraft components and spacecraft program management services, space data applications, and mission operations. Its space systems solutions are the building blocks for spacecraft, which include composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, solar solutions, radios, separation systems, and command and control spacecraft software.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Record Revenue Achievement: The company posted a record revenue of $602 million in 2025, up 38% year-over-year, with a backlog soaring 73% to nearly $1.9 billion, showcasing robust business growth potential.
- Strategic Importance of Neutron: The upcoming Neutron rocket will enable Rocket Lab to compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9, with an expected launch cost approximately $15 million lower, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: Despite the high stock price with a P/S ratio of 66 and ongoing losses, the successful rollout of Neutron could enhance profitability, necessitating careful risk-reward assessment by investors.
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- Increased Market Attention: As SpaceX's IPO approaches, heightened market interest in space exploration may create additional investment opportunities for companies like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, potentially driving their stock prices higher.
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- Successful Launch Record: The company executed 21 missions last year with a 100% success rate, which not only enhanced its market credibility but also laid the groundwork for securing an $816 million contract from the Space Development Agency, further solidifying its position in the aerospace sector.
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- Significant Stock Surge: Rocket Lab's stock has surged nearly 250% over the past year, climbing from around $21 to over $73, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth prospects.
- Record Revenue Achievement: The company posted a record revenue of $602 million in 2025, up 38% year-over-year, with a backlog soaring 73% to nearly $1.9 billion, showcasing robust business growth potential.
- Strategic Importance of Neutron: The upcoming Neutron rocket will enable Rocket Lab to compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9, with an expected launch cost approximately $15 million lower, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: Despite the high stock price with a P/S ratio of 66 and ongoing losses, the successful rollout of Neutron could enhance profitability, necessitating careful risk-reward assessment by investors.
See More
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- AST SpaceMobile's Strong Prospects: Focused on commercializing its satellite-based broadband network, AST SpaceMobile is projected to generate $70.9 million in revenue by 2025, with analysts forecasting $777 million in 2024, indicating robust growth potential despite a current gross margin of -14399.31%.
- Rocket Lab's Growth Momentum: Both Rocket Lab's launch services and space systems divisions have shown healthy growth, with the launch segment increasing nearly 40% last year and the space systems segment over 34%, establishing the company as a leader in space hardware.
- Increased Market Attention: As SpaceX's IPO approaches, heightened market interest in space exploration may create additional investment opportunities for companies like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, potentially driving their stock prices higher.
- Long-Term Investment Value: Although Rocket Lab is not yet profitable, its $48 billion market cap and expected mid-double-digit sales growth suggest that as sales scale up, the company is likely to achieve profitability in the future, attracting long-term investor interest.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Space Stocks Amid SpaceX IPO Buzz
- AST SpaceMobile Commercialization: AST SpaceMobile is rapidly commercializing its satellite-based cellular broadband network, with projected revenue of $70.9 million in 2025, indicating strong market demand and growth potential that could lead to exponential increases in the coming years.
- Rocket Lab Diversification: While best known for its launch services, Rocket Lab's space systems segment continues to grow, with the launch segment increasing nearly 40% last year and the space systems segment over 34%, showcasing the company's potential leadership in space hardware.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Analysts forecast AST SpaceMobile to reach $777 million in revenue next year, with EPS nearing $4 by 2029, indicating significant upside in profitability and market share in the future.
- Increased Investor Attention: With the SpaceX IPO approaching, heightened market interest in the space sector could trigger a broad rally in related stocks, further boosting the stock performance of AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Rocket Lab achieved record revenue of $602 million in 2025, marking a 38% year-over-year increase, while its backlog surged 73% to nearly $1.9 billion, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
- Successful Launch Record: The company executed 21 missions last year with a 100% success rate, which not only enhanced its market credibility but also laid the groundwork for securing an $816 million contract from the Space Development Agency, further solidifying its position in the aerospace sector.
- New Product Driving Growth: The upcoming Neutron medium-lift rocket will enable Rocket Lab to directly compete with SpaceX's Falcon 9 at a launch price of approximately $15 million less, expected to significantly boost the company's market share and revenue potential.
- Investment Risks to Consider: Despite the promising outlook, the stock is currently trading at about 66 times sales and is still operating at a loss, with a nearly $200 million loss in 2025, prompting investors to carefully assess the implications of Neutron's successful launch on future revenue.
See More
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- Technological Advancements: The concept of space-based data centers has shifted from impractical to ideal due to advancements in technology, particularly as terrestrial data centers generate excessive heat that requires efficient cooling, which the cold environment of space can provide.
- Solar Power Advantage: Space data centers can utilize solar energy as a continuous power source, addressing the electricity demands of terrestrial AI data centers, indicating significant sustainability benefits for this technology.
- Decreasing Launch Costs: Since 2010, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has reduced launch costs to $2,600 per kilogram, with Falcon Heavy further lowering it to $1,500, and projections suggest costs could drop below $1,000, establishing a solid economic foundation for space data centers.
- Significant Market Potential: Although the realization of space data centers is still a few years away, companies like Rocket Lab are preparing reusable medium-lift rockets capable of launching 13,000 kilograms into orbit, attracting investor interest in this promising market.
See More
The Future Outlook of Space-Based Data Centers
- Cost Reduction Trend: Since 2010, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has reduced launch costs from $5,400 per kilogram to $2,600, and further down to $1,500 in 2018, with expectations of dropping below $1,000, making the establishment of space-based data centers increasingly feasible.
- Technology Readiness: AST SpaceMobile has successfully provided broadband internet connectivity from satellites to ordinary mobile phones, demonstrating the maturity of space communication technology, which lays a reliable communication foundation for future space data center operations.
- Significant Environmental Benefits: Space data centers powered by solar energy avoid the high heat and environmental impact generated by terrestrial data centers, showcasing a more eco-friendly operational model that aligns with global sustainability demands.
- Huge Market Potential: As launch costs decrease and technology advances, the concept of space data centers is gradually becoming a reality, attracting attention from industry leaders including Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, indicating an increase in future investment opportunities.
See More
