Recent Developments Influencing the Waldencast Investment Narrative
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 29 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ULTA?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Analyst Price Target Adjustment: Waldencast's consensus analyst price target has been lowered from $3.50 to $3.20, indicating a less optimistic outlook on the company's fair value and future revenue growth.
Bullish and Bearish Perspectives: Analysts noted distribution gains for Waldencast's core brands, particularly through major retailers, while also expressing concerns over disappointing Q2 results and sales softness for the Milk brand due to stock issues.
Financial Performance and Outlook: Waldencast reported a significant loss on impairment of goodwill and revised its 2025 earnings outlook, expecting net revenue to remain stable as consumer demand softens for Milk Makeup.
Regulatory Developments: The U.S. FDA approved Obagi saypha MagIQ injectable gel, marking Waldencast's entry into the HA dermal filler market, with a commercial launch anticipated in 2026.
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Analyst Views on ULTA
Wall Street analysts forecast ULTA stock price to fall
22 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 667.180
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
Current: 667.180
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
About ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty United States beauty retailer and the premier beauty destination for cosmetics, fragrance, skincare products, haircare products and salon services. The Company operates approximately 1,451 retail stores across 50 states and distributes products through its Website, which includes a collection of tips, tutorials, and social content. The Company’s business includes a differentiated assortment of approximately 29,000 beauty products across a variety of categories and price points, as well as a variety of beauty services, including salon services, in more than 1,400 stores predominantly located in convenient, high-traffic locations. It also offers digital experiences delivered through its Website, Ulta.com, and its mobile applications. The Company’s brands include Ulta Beauty Collection, about-face, Ariana Grande, CHANEL, FENTY BEAUTY by Rihanna, It Cosmetics, LolaVie, OUAI, PAT McGRATH LABS, Tula, and NYX Professional Makeup.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Ulta Beauty Growth Potential: Ulta Beauty's stock has surged approximately 70% over the past 12 months, with its diverse product line ranging from mass-market to luxury brands attracting more consumers and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Increased Consumer Engagement: By boosting foot traffic, Ulta is driving organic sales growth, with retail sales up 3% year-over-year, indicating strong consumer demand for its products.
- Loyalty Program as Growth Driver: Ulta's loyalty program effectively attracts customers, increasing their shopping frequency and thereby enhancing market share and shareholder returns.
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- Enhanced Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 68% from $0.74 to $1.24, surpassing the analyst expectation of $0.72, reflecting the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Market Share Expansion: The e.l.f. brand gained 130 basis points in the mass cosmetics market, with U.S. and international revenues rising 36% and 44% respectively, despite weak consumption in the U.K., showcasing the brand's global appeal.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance to a growth range of 22% to 33%, expecting Rhode to contribute $260 million to $265 million in revenue, demonstrating confidence in future growth and strategic positioning.
See More
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- Significant Sales Growth: e.l.f. Beauty's Q3 sales soared 38% year-over-year to $489.5 million, easily surpassing the analyst consensus of $460 million, indicating strong market demand and brand appeal.
- Improved Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 68% from $0.74 to $1.24, exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.72, reflecting the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Rhode Brand Contribution: The Rhode brand contributed $128 million in revenue during the quarter, bolstered by its successful launch at Sephora, further solidifying e.l.f.'s position in the rapidly growing beauty market.
- Optimistic Outlook: e.l.f. raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance to an increase of 22% to 33%, with Rhode expected to contribute $260 million to $265 million in revenue, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth and strategic positioning.
See More
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- Acquisition Strategy: The recent acquisition of premium skincare brand Rhode, which achieved over $200 million in sales in less than three years, is expected to further drive sales growth through increased distribution and product promotion, especially in LVMH's Sephora stores.
- International Expansion Opportunities: Although e.l.f. is still in the early stages of international expansion, its global growth rate is around 8%, indicating strong international demand, with future potential to enhance market share by increasing shelf space at Walmart.
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See More
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- UAE Store Opening: Ulta Beauty announced its first store opening at Mall of the Emirates on January 29, 2026, marking a significant entry into the Middle Eastern market, which is expected to attract a large local customer base.
- Diverse Product Offering: The new store will feature a wide range of products including cosmetics, skincare, and fragrances from well-known brands such as Ulta Beauty Collection and Morphe, aiming to meet the diverse beauty needs of UAE consumers.
- Launch Celebration Events: The opening day will feature special events with regional celebrities like Nadine Njeim, and activities will continue until February 7, including product demonstrations and showcases of local entrepreneurs, enhancing brand visibility.
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See More
