Prediction Market Volumes Surge to $1 Trillion
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy COIN?
Source: CNBC
- Market Volume Surge: According to Bernstein, prediction market volumes are projected to reach $240 billion in 2026, representing a 370% increase from last year, indicating strong market demand and investor interest.
- Platform Dominance: Kalshi and Polymarket, the leading platforms, have seen approximately $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date, surpassing the total volume of $51 billion for all of 2025, highlighting their dominant position in the market.
- Institutional Market Development: Analysts expect that with increased regulatory clarity, the institutional market will develop around economic, business, and political contracts, with sports contracts' trading volume expected to be halved by 2030, while hedging demand from corporates and insurance firms will rise.
- Rapid Growth of Robinhood: Robinhood's prediction market segment has generated $350 million in annual recurring revenue, accounting for 30% of Kalshi's total volume, making it the fastest-growing business for the platform and potentially driving Robinhood to develop its own exchange.
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Analyst Views on COIN
Wall Street analysts forecast COIN stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 199.825
Low
230.00
Averages
361.63
High
440.00
Current: 199.825
Low
230.00
Averages
361.63
High
440.00
About COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. is a holding company of Coinbase, Inc. and other subsidiaries. The Company provides a platform that serves as a compliant on-ramp to the onchain economy and enables users to engage in a variety of activities with their crypto assets in both proprietary and third-party product experiences enabled by access to decentralized applications. It offers consumers their primary financial account for the onchain economy; institutions a full-service prime brokerage platform with access to deep pools of liquidity across the crypto marketplace, and developers a suite of products granting access to build onchain. The Company offers products and services to various customer groups: consumers, businesses, institutions, and developers. Its transaction products consist of consumer trading, prime trading, markets, base protocol and Coinbase wallet. The Company also provides market infrastructure in the form of exchanges for customers to trade spots and derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Coinbase: A Simplified Approach to Cryptocurrency Investment
- Market Participation: As one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, Coinbase holds about 12% of all crypto assets in custody, projected to generate approximately $4.1 billion in transaction revenue by 2025, thereby securing a significant position in the crypto market.
- Diverse Revenue Streams: In addition to transaction revenue, Coinbase also earns around $2.8 billion from subscription and services, indicating the diversity of its business model and its resilience against market fluctuations.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Investing in Coinbase allows investors to focus on the growth of the entire crypto ecosystem rather than picking individual cryptocurrencies, simplifying the investment process and aligning more closely with traditional portfolio construction.
- Risk and Return: While Coinbase's profitability heavily relies on trading activity, which can be affected by market volatility, this approach offers investors more manageable risk control, avoiding the high volatility and uncertainty associated with individual tokens.
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Bitcoin Price Predictions for the Next Five Years
- Best-Case Scenario: In the best-case scenario, Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, with high-profile investors like Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong optimistic about new catalysts such as the U.S. Treasury potentially buying Bitcoin, which could trigger a bull market.
- Base-Case Analysis: In the base-case scenario, Bitcoin may trade like a typical tech stock with an expected annual return of 20%, potentially reaching $200,000 in five years, reflecting growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.
- Worst-Case Outlook: In the worst-case scenario, the threat of quantum computing could see Bitcoin's price fall below $30,000, undermining its status as
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- Structural Shift: Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from niche gaming platforms into broader 'information markets,' driven by increased federal regulatory clarity, the establishment of mainstream distribution partnerships, and a structural liquidity advantage over traditional gaming frameworks.
- Blockchain Integration: The adoption of blockchain technology is accelerating the integration of prediction markets, enabling global liquidity and lowering barriers for institutional participation, thereby facilitating the creation of 'long-tail' event contracts that cater to specific or niche events.
- Institutional Capital Influx: As these markets mature, a growing segment of institutional capital is beginning to engage with these platforms, positioning them as critical infrastructure for price discovery and risk management, heralding a new era of decentralized financial forecasting.
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- Market Complexity: The complexity of the cryptocurrency market poses significant challenges for investors when selecting individual coins; for instance, Bitcoin's return over the past five years is less than 11%, while buying three months later would yield nearly 100%, highlighting the importance of timing.
- Coinbase's Market Position: Coinbase Global, as one of the largest cryptocurrency trading platforms, holds about 12% of global crypto assets, generating $4.1 billion in transaction revenue in 2025, along with $2.8 billion from subscription and services, underscoring its central role in the crypto ecosystem.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Instead of picking individual coins, investors can focus on the entire crypto ecosystem, with Coinbase providing a transparent business model and financial statements as a publicly traded company, simplifying investment decisions.
- Risk and Reward Trade-off: While this investment approach reduces the risks associated with selecting individual coins, it also caps potential high-reward opportunities, such as missing out on a coin that could appreciate by 20-50 times, necessitating a careful balance between risk and reward.
See More
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- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.20% and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.29%, reaching all-time highs, reflecting investor optimism regarding US-Iran peace talks, which may enhance risk appetite in the markets.
- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude prices fell over 11% to a five-week low after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, easing inflation concerns and causing the 10-year T-note yield to drop 7 basis points to 4.24%.
- Strong Earnings Season: The earnings season started robustly, with 81% of the 48 S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings exceeding estimates, projecting a 12% year-over-year increase in earnings, providing strong support for the stock market.
- Airline Stocks Surge: Airline stocks surged as fuel costs decreased, with Alaska Air Group (ALK) rising over 10% and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) up more than 7%, indicating market confidence in the recovery of the airline industry.
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US Stocks Rally as Oil Prices Plunge Amid Peace Talks
- Market Surge: The S&P 500 rose by 1.28% and the Nasdaq 100 reached an all-time high, reflecting investor optimism driven by peace talks between the US and Iran, which may enhance risk appetite and bolster overall market confidence.
- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 13% to a five-week low after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, easing inflation concerns and causing the 10-year Treasury yield to drop by 8 basis points, further supporting the bond market.
- Earnings Growth Expectations: Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to increase by 12% year-over-year, although excluding the tech sector, growth is only 3%, indicating resilience in corporate performance amid economic recovery and providing market support.
- Airline Stocks Soar: With reduced fuel costs, Alaska Air Group and United Airlines surged by over 14% and 11%, respectively, demonstrating the positive impact of falling oil prices on the airline industry, which could enhance profitability for related companies.
See More
Coinbase: A Simplified Approach to Cryptocurrency Investment
- Market Participation: As one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, Coinbase holds about 12% of all crypto assets in custody, projected to generate approximately $4.1 billion in transaction revenue by 2025, thereby securing a significant position in the crypto market.
- Diverse Revenue Streams: In addition to transaction revenue, Coinbase also earns around $2.8 billion from subscription and services, indicating the diversity of its business model and its resilience against market fluctuations.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Investing in Coinbase allows investors to focus on the growth of the entire crypto ecosystem rather than picking individual cryptocurrencies, simplifying the investment process and aligning more closely with traditional portfolio construction.
- Risk and Return: While Coinbase's profitability heavily relies on trading activity, which can be affected by market volatility, this approach offers investors more manageable risk control, avoiding the high volatility and uncertainty associated with individual tokens.
See More
Bitcoin Price Predictions for the Next Five Years
- Best-Case Scenario: In the best-case scenario, Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, with high-profile investors like Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong optimistic about new catalysts such as the U.S. Treasury potentially buying Bitcoin, which could trigger a bull market.
- Base-Case Analysis: In the base-case scenario, Bitcoin may trade like a typical tech stock with an expected annual return of 20%, potentially reaching $200,000 in five years, reflecting growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.
- Worst-Case Outlook: In the worst-case scenario, the threat of quantum computing could see Bitcoin's price fall below $30,000, undermining its status as
See More
Prediction Markets Set for Explosive Growth, Projected to Reach $1 Trillion by 2030
- Market Size Projection: According to Bernstein's report, event contract volumes in prediction markets are expected to reach approximately $240 billion by 2026, ultimately ballooning to a $1 trillion market by 2030, indicating significant growth potential in this sector.
- Structural Shift: Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from niche gaming platforms into broader 'information markets,' driven by increased federal regulatory clarity, the establishment of mainstream distribution partnerships, and a structural liquidity advantage over traditional gaming frameworks.
- Blockchain Integration: The adoption of blockchain technology is accelerating the integration of prediction markets, enabling global liquidity and lowering barriers for institutional participation, thereby facilitating the creation of 'long-tail' event contracts that cater to specific or niche events.
- Institutional Capital Influx: As these markets mature, a growing segment of institutional capital is beginning to engage with these platforms, positioning them as critical infrastructure for price discovery and risk management, heralding a new era of decentralized financial forecasting.
See More
Simplified Strategy for Investing in Cryptocurrency
- Market Complexity: The complexity of the cryptocurrency market poses significant challenges for investors when selecting individual coins; for instance, Bitcoin's return over the past five years is less than 11%, while buying three months later would yield nearly 100%, highlighting the importance of timing.
- Coinbase's Market Position: Coinbase Global, as one of the largest cryptocurrency trading platforms, holds about 12% of global crypto assets, generating $4.1 billion in transaction revenue in 2025, along with $2.8 billion from subscription and services, underscoring its central role in the crypto ecosystem.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Instead of picking individual coins, investors can focus on the entire crypto ecosystem, with Coinbase providing a transparent business model and financial statements as a publicly traded company, simplifying investment decisions.
- Risk and Reward Trade-off: While this investment approach reduces the risks associated with selecting individual coins, it also caps potential high-reward opportunities, such as missing out on a coin that could appreciate by 20-50 times, necessitating a careful balance between risk and reward.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Plunge Amid Peace Talks
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.20% and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.29%, reaching all-time highs, reflecting investor optimism regarding US-Iran peace talks, which may enhance risk appetite in the markets.
- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude prices fell over 11% to a five-week low after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, easing inflation concerns and causing the 10-year T-note yield to drop 7 basis points to 4.24%.
- Strong Earnings Season: The earnings season started robustly, with 81% of the 48 S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings exceeding estimates, projecting a 12% year-over-year increase in earnings, providing strong support for the stock market.
- Airline Stocks Surge: Airline stocks surged as fuel costs decreased, with Alaska Air Group (ALK) rising over 10% and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) up more than 7%, indicating market confidence in the recovery of the airline industry.
See More
US Stocks Rally as Oil Prices Plunge Amid Peace Talks
- Market Surge: The S&P 500 rose by 1.28% and the Nasdaq 100 reached an all-time high, reflecting investor optimism driven by peace talks between the US and Iran, which may enhance risk appetite and bolster overall market confidence.
- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 13% to a five-week low after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, easing inflation concerns and causing the 10-year Treasury yield to drop by 8 basis points, further supporting the bond market.
- Earnings Growth Expectations: Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to increase by 12% year-over-year, although excluding the tech sector, growth is only 3%, indicating resilience in corporate performance amid economic recovery and providing market support.
- Airline Stocks Soar: With reduced fuel costs, Alaska Air Group and United Airlines surged by over 14% and 11%, respectively, demonstrating the positive impact of falling oil prices on the airline industry, which could enhance profitability for related companies.
See More
