Par Pacific Expects Refining Business to Benefit from Low Oil Prices in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 26 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PARR?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Par Pacific's stock surged by 119.3%, significantly outpacing Exxon Mobil's 16.1% gain, indicating strong performance and market appeal in the refining sector.
- Oil Price Forecast Impact: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude will drop to $51.42 per barrel in 2026, benefiting the refining industry, particularly Par Pacific, which relies on low oil prices for processing.
- Diversified Crude Sources: Par Pacific's strategy of sourcing crude from various origins, including U.S. inland oil fields and Canadian heavy oil, reduces reliance on a single source, thereby maintaining a competitive edge and enhancing profitability amid price fluctuations.
- Valuation Discrepancy: While Exxon Mobil trades at a 7.74x enterprise value to EBITDA ratio, above the industry average of 4.46x, Par Pacific offers a different risk-reward profile that appeals to risk-tolerant investors.
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Analyst Views on PARR
Wall Street analysts forecast PARR stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 63.710
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
Current: 63.710
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
About PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company, which provides both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States. The Company owns and operates 219,000 barrels per day of combined refining capacity across three locations and an energy infrastructure network, including 13 million barrels of storage, and marine, rail, rack and pipeline assets. The Company’s Refining segment owns and operates four refineries with total operating crude oil throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd). Retail segment operates fuel retail outlets in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho. It operates convenience stores and fuel retail sites under Hele and nomnom brands, 76 branded fuel retail sites and other sites operated by third parties that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries. The Logistics segment operates a multi-modal logistics network spanning the Pacific, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain regions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Par Pacific to Release Q1 2026 Earnings on May 5
- Earnings Release Schedule: Par Pacific Holdings will announce its Q1 2026 earnings after the NYSE closes on May 5, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Investor Conference Call: The subsequent investor conference call is scheduled for May 6, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, which is expected to attract significant attention from analysts and investors, enhancing market understanding of the company's performance.
- Financial Transparency: This earnings release will provide investors with the latest data on Par Pacific's operational performance in both renewable and conventional fuels, aiding the market in assessing its competitiveness in the Western U.S. energy sector.
- Company Background: Par Pacific operates a refining capacity of 219,000 bpd across Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, along with a diverse energy infrastructure that includes the Hele retail brand and the “nomnom” convenience store chain, showcasing its comprehensive strength in the energy industry.
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Goldman Sachs Upgrades Par Pacific and Delek Ratings
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Par Pacific (PARR) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $77, driven by strong earnings expectations in Hawaii and undervalued mainland refiners, indicating robust fundamentals and positive estimate revisions.
- Market Outlook: Analysts highlighted that tighter refining supply-demand fundamentals and the scarcity of refined products should enhance earnings power for U.S. refiners, suggesting a constructive outlook for small-to-midcap refiners.
- Delek US Performance: Delek US Holdings (DK) was also upgraded to Buy with a target price of $55, based on forecasts for stronger free cash flow generation supported by self-help initiatives, including cost-reduction efforts and improved marketing strategies.
- CVR Energy and PBF Energy: Goldman maintained a Sell rating on CVR Energy (CVI) due to a focus on debt paydown, while keeping a Neutral rating on PBF Energy (PBF) as they await full recovery from the 2025 fire at the Martinez refinery.
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Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Analysis
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- ServiceNow Downgrade: UBS downgraded ServiceNow from buy to neutral due to weakened confidence in the software sector, projecting a decline in 2026 free cash flow to 15x, reflecting increased budget pressures on non-AI applications that could impact future performance.
- Shake Shack Sales Growth: Mizuho upgraded Shake Shack from neutral to outperform, anticipating upside in same-store sales for Q1, driven by strong demand and improved restaurant-level margins, indicating robust market momentum and growth potential.
- Nvidia Strong Performance: Raymond James reiterated a strong buy rating on Nvidia, based on favorable trends in its Asia supply chain, with suppliers receiving increased forecasts during the quarter, reinforcing Nvidia's position as a market leader.
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Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Stocks Surge
- Sector Performance: The oil and gas refining and marketing sector rose approximately 3.4%, indicating a renewed market confidence likely driven by rising oil prices and recovering demand.
- Delek US Holdings: Delek US Holdings saw its stock price increase by about 8.2%, leading the sector, reflecting investor optimism regarding its future profitability, potentially linked to recent business expansions and market strategies.
- Par Pacific Holdings: Par Pacific Holdings' stock rose approximately 7%, showcasing market recognition of its operational efficiency and profitability, likely benefiting from the overall industry recovery and internal optimization measures.
- Market Trend Analysis: As oil and gas demand rebounds, investor interest in the refining and marketing sector is increasing, suggesting that this industry may continue to receive support from capital inflows in the coming months.
See More
Oil Prices Could Remain High: 4 Key Insights from the Middle East Energy Crisis
Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices have surged past $100 due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with analysts predicting potential further increases if production continues to be curtailed. However, prolonged conflict could harm global economic demand, leading to a possible oversupply situation.
U.S. Shale Producers: U.S. oil producers are positioned favorably as prices remain high, particularly small- and mid-cap companies that are seeing attractive free cash flow. The market has not fully priced in the potential for sustained higher oil prices, creating investment opportunities.
Refining Sector Dynamics: U.S. refiners are benefiting from high international gas prices and reduced competition, leading to significant stock price increases. However, refining margins may decline once supply chains stabilize, suggesting a potential sell-off in refiner stocks.
LNG and Petrochemical Gains: American LNG producers are experiencing a surge in demand due to global supply constraints, while U.S. petrochemical companies are benefiting from rising costs of competing producers. This situation is expected to provide a margin boost for U.S. firms in the long term.
See More
Jet Fuel Prices Surge, Benefiting Refiners Significantly.
- Rising Jet Fuel Prices: Asian jet fuel prices are increasing significantly due to supply concerns in the energy markets.
- Impact of U.S. Strikes: The surge in prices follows U.S. military strikes on Iran, which have heightened fears about supply stability.
- U.S. Refining Stocks Rally: The situation has contributed to a notable rally in U.S. refining stocks, reflecting investor reactions to the geopolitical tensions.
- Market Reactions: The overall energy market is experiencing volatility as a result of these developments, impacting both prices and stock performance.
See More
Par Pacific to Release Q1 2026 Earnings on May 5
- Earnings Release Schedule: Par Pacific Holdings will announce its Q1 2026 earnings after the NYSE closes on May 5, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Investor Conference Call: The subsequent investor conference call is scheduled for May 6, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, which is expected to attract significant attention from analysts and investors, enhancing market understanding of the company's performance.
- Financial Transparency: This earnings release will provide investors with the latest data on Par Pacific's operational performance in both renewable and conventional fuels, aiding the market in assessing its competitiveness in the Western U.S. energy sector.
- Company Background: Par Pacific operates a refining capacity of 219,000 bpd across Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, along with a diverse energy infrastructure that includes the Hele retail brand and the “nomnom” convenience store chain, showcasing its comprehensive strength in the energy industry.
See More
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Par Pacific and Delek Ratings
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Par Pacific (PARR) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $77, driven by strong earnings expectations in Hawaii and undervalued mainland refiners, indicating robust fundamentals and positive estimate revisions.
- Market Outlook: Analysts highlighted that tighter refining supply-demand fundamentals and the scarcity of refined products should enhance earnings power for U.S. refiners, suggesting a constructive outlook for small-to-midcap refiners.
- Delek US Performance: Delek US Holdings (DK) was also upgraded to Buy with a target price of $55, based on forecasts for stronger free cash flow generation supported by self-help initiatives, including cost-reduction efforts and improved marketing strategies.
- CVR Energy and PBF Energy: Goldman maintained a Sell rating on CVR Energy (CVI) due to a focus on debt paydown, while keeping a Neutral rating on PBF Energy (PBF) as they await full recovery from the 2025 fire at the Martinez refinery.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Analysis
- MSG Sports Upgrade: Seaport upgraded Madison Square Garden Sports from neutral to buy, citing a significant 57.5% trading discount versus intrinsic value, suggesting a potential appreciation ahead of the 2025-26 season, particularly with plans to spin off the Knicks and Rangers into standalone entities.
- ServiceNow Downgrade: UBS downgraded ServiceNow from buy to neutral due to weakened confidence in the software sector, projecting a decline in 2026 free cash flow to 15x, reflecting increased budget pressures on non-AI applications that could impact future performance.
- Shake Shack Sales Growth: Mizuho upgraded Shake Shack from neutral to outperform, anticipating upside in same-store sales for Q1, driven by strong demand and improved restaurant-level margins, indicating robust market momentum and growth potential.
- Nvidia Strong Performance: Raymond James reiterated a strong buy rating on Nvidia, based on favorable trends in its Asia supply chain, with suppliers receiving increased forecasts during the quarter, reinforcing Nvidia's position as a market leader.
See More
Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Stocks Surge
- Sector Performance: The oil and gas refining and marketing sector rose approximately 3.4%, indicating a renewed market confidence likely driven by rising oil prices and recovering demand.
- Delek US Holdings: Delek US Holdings saw its stock price increase by about 8.2%, leading the sector, reflecting investor optimism regarding its future profitability, potentially linked to recent business expansions and market strategies.
- Par Pacific Holdings: Par Pacific Holdings' stock rose approximately 7%, showcasing market recognition of its operational efficiency and profitability, likely benefiting from the overall industry recovery and internal optimization measures.
- Market Trend Analysis: As oil and gas demand rebounds, investor interest in the refining and marketing sector is increasing, suggesting that this industry may continue to receive support from capital inflows in the coming months.
See More
Oil Prices Could Remain High: 4 Key Insights from the Middle East Energy Crisis
Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices have surged past $100 due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with analysts predicting potential further increases if production continues to be curtailed. However, prolonged conflict could harm global economic demand, leading to a possible oversupply situation.
U.S. Shale Producers: U.S. oil producers are positioned favorably as prices remain high, particularly small- and mid-cap companies that are seeing attractive free cash flow. The market has not fully priced in the potential for sustained higher oil prices, creating investment opportunities.
Refining Sector Dynamics: U.S. refiners are benefiting from high international gas prices and reduced competition, leading to significant stock price increases. However, refining margins may decline once supply chains stabilize, suggesting a potential sell-off in refiner stocks.
LNG and Petrochemical Gains: American LNG producers are experiencing a surge in demand due to global supply constraints, while U.S. petrochemical companies are benefiting from rising costs of competing producers. This situation is expected to provide a margin boost for U.S. firms in the long term.
See More
Jet Fuel Prices Surge, Benefiting Refiners Significantly.
- Rising Jet Fuel Prices: Asian jet fuel prices are increasing significantly due to supply concerns in the energy markets.
- Impact of U.S. Strikes: The surge in prices follows U.S. military strikes on Iran, which have heightened fears about supply stability.
- U.S. Refining Stocks Rally: The situation has contributed to a notable rally in U.S. refining stocks, reflecting investor reactions to the geopolitical tensions.
- Market Reactions: The overall energy market is experiencing volatility as a result of these developments, impacting both prices and stock performance.
See More
