Morgan Stanley: Rising Default Risks in Private Credit
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Rising Default Expectations: Morgan Stanley forecasts that direct lending default rates will reach 8%, nearing pandemic peak levels, reflecting concerns over AI's impact on software service demand, which could lead to increased defaults and instability in the credit market.
- Investor Redemption Surge: Fears surrounding AI's potential disruption of software businesses have prompted investors to withdraw from private credit funds, resulting in a spike in redemptions by private market and alternative asset managers, further exacerbating market uncertainty.
- Increased Software Loan Risks: Morgan Stanley highlights that the credit fundamentals of software loans are challenged, with the highest leverage and lowest coverage ratios, particularly as 11% of software loans are set to mature by the end of 2027 and another 20% in 2028, raising default risks.
- Limited Market Impact: Despite rising default risks, Morgan Stanley believes these risks are not systemic, as corporate balance sheets remain largely healthy, and the leverage levels in private credit funds and BDCs are lower compared to historical crisis periods, indicating some market resilience.
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Analyst Views on BX
Wall Street analysts forecast BX stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 108.070
Low
166.00
Averages
176.60
High
205.00
Current: 108.070
Low
166.00
Averages
176.60
High
205.00
About BX
Blackstone Inc. is an alternative asset manager. Its asset management includes global investment strategies focused on real estate, private equity, infrastructure, life sciences, growth equity, credit, real assets, secondaries, and hedge funds. Its Real Estate segment comprises its management of opportunistic real estate funds, Core+ real estate funds, and real estate debt strategies. Its Private Equity segment includes its management of flagship Corporate Private Equity funds, sector and geographically focused Corporate Private Equity funds, core private equity funds, an investment platform, and others. Its Credit & Insurance segment consists of Blackstone Credit & Insurance, which is organized into three overarching strategies: private corporate credit, liquid corporate credit and infrastructure and asset-based credit. Its Multi-Asset Investing segment is organized into four investment platforms: Absolute Return, Multi-Strategy, Total Portfolio Management, and Public Real Assets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Diversified Investment Options: The Trump administration's proposal allows 401(k) plans to include alternative investments such as private credit, private equity, cryptocurrency, and real estate, aiming to provide millions of Americans with broader retirement investment choices, thereby enhancing the growth potential of retirement assets.
- Clear Compliance Process: The new rule mandates that plan fiduciaries must objectively and thoroughly assess factors like performance, fees, and liquidity of alternative assets, ensuring a prudent decision-making process when selecting investment products to protect investor interests.
- Supportive Policy Background: This proposal responds to President Trump's August 7 Executive Order, aiming to implement changes in a safe and smart manner while broadening retirement plan options and emphasizing the importance of protecting retirement assets, reflecting the government's commitment to improving the retirement investment landscape.
- Increased Industry Competition: With the introduction of the new rule, asset management firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo Global Management are expected to benefit from access to alternative investment opportunities in 401(k) accounts, likely intensifying competition within the industry and promoting diversification and innovation in investment products.
See More
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- Boston Scientific Downgrade: Boston Scientific's stock fell more than 9% after Raymond James downgraded it from strong buy to outperform, reflecting concerns over weakening trends in its key growth areas and leading investors to adopt a cautious stance on its future performance.
- Cybersecurity Gains: Palo Alto Networks saw its shares jump over 7% after CEO Nikesh Arora disclosed a $10 million stock purchase, demonstrating market confidence in the company's growth prospects amid rising demand for cybersecurity solutions.
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- Market Growth: According to Barclays, the private credit market ballooned to $1.8 trillion in the first half of 2025, up from approximately $250 billion during the financial crisis, indicating strong demand for financing among mid-sized businesses.
- High-Risk Alerts: The bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor prompted JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to warn of potential systemic issues in private credit, highlighting vulnerabilities within the sector.
- Investor Structure Shift: Unlike the depositors during the 2008 crisis, the current investor base for private credit consists mainly of institutional investors such as pensions and sovereign wealth funds, which are more capable of locking up capital for extended periods, thereby reducing systemic risk.
- Normalizing Credit Conditions: While the private credit market faces increased stress, the majority of investments are in investment-grade loans, with only a small portion in high-yield loans, suggesting that the overall stability of the market remains relatively strong.
See More
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- Proposed Regulation: The U.S. Labor Department has proposed allowing 401(k) plans to more easily include alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and real estate, responding to President Trump's executive order aimed at enhancing asset diversification for retirement investors, potentially leading to higher returns.
- Safe Harbor Provision: The new rule establishes a 'safe harbor' to protect plan sponsors from litigation risks and outlines six factors to consider when selecting alternative investments, including performance, fees, and liquidity, which may encourage more 401(k) plans to adopt alternative assets.
- Investor Concerns: While the new rule could yield higher returns, some financial advisors express concerns that average 401(k) investors may lack the necessary knowledge and experience to manage these more complex investments, potentially leading to increased risks and costs.
- Policy Context: This proposal is set against the backdrop of the Trump administration's push for broader access to non-traditional asset classes, aiming to counter the cautious stance taken during the Biden administration regarding cryptocurrency investments, reflecting a shift towards greater flexibility and choice for retirement investors.
See More
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- Regulatory Focus: The meeting will aim to strengthen transparent oversight of the relationships between private credit firms and regulated financial institutions; although the Treasury lacks direct regulatory authority over insurers, Bessent seeks to position the department as a central coordinating body for regulators across all 50 states.
- Investor Sentiment: Investor sentiment in the approximately $2 trillion non-bank lending sector has been shaken by concerns over liquidity, transparency, and lending standards, with Bessent emphasizing the need for private credit lenders to maintain prudence in their loan portfolios to prevent potential impacts on the overall economy.
- Asset Transfer Regulation: Bessent noted that individual investors should be able to take advantage of private credit assets through pension or 401(k) retirement accounts, but the Treasury will be involved in regulating how private assets are transferred to individual investor accounts to prevent the transfer of
See More
