Middle East War Triggers Oil Market Shock
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy PBF?
Source: seekingalpha
- Price Surge: Since the initial attacks, crude oil prices have surged over 40%, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel; however, refined products like diesel and jet fuel have seen even greater price increases, indicating strong demand and supply constraints in the market.
- Supply Disruption Risks: Analysts highlight that severe disruptions in medium-heavy crude supplies from the Middle East pose risks of reduced production for diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil, exacerbating instability in the global energy market and impacting national energy security.
- Asian Market Response: In parts of Asia, fuel costs have doubled recently, prompting countries like South Korea to impose export caps to protect local markets, reflecting the fragility of global energy supply chains and the increasing emphasis on energy independence.
- Refiner Performance: Among U.S. listed refiners, PBF Energy and Par Pacific Holdings stand out with strong buy ratings, indicating market confidence, while CVR Energy's sell rating suggests relative weakness in the current market environment.
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Analyst Views on PBF
Wall Street analysts forecast PBF stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 51.230
Low
23.00
Averages
33.63
High
42.00
Current: 51.230
Low
23.00
Averages
33.63
High
42.00
About PBF
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent refiner in North America, operating, through its subsidiaries, oil refineries and related facilities in California, Delaware, Louisiana, New Jersey and Ohio. The Company operates as a refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products. It operates through two segments: Refining and Logistics. The Refining segment includes the operations of its oil refineries and related facilities in Delaware City, Delaware, Paulsboro, New Jersey, Toledo, Ohio, Chalmette, Louisiana, Torrance, California and Martinez, California. The Logistics segment includes the operations of PBF Logistics LP, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of PBF Energy and PBF LLC, which owns or leases, operates, develops, and acquires crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals, pipelines, storage facilities, and similar logistics assets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of XOP ETF Trading Dynamics
- Price Range Analysis: The XOP ETF has a 52-week low of $99.01 and a high of $190.36, with the last trade at $187.64, indicating significant volatility near its high, which may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade similarly to stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the ETF's liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), which can significantly affect the performance of the underlying stocks within the ETF.
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PBF Energy Executive Sells 50,000 Shares of Stock
- Transaction Overview: Paul T Davis, Senior VP of PBF Energy, reported the sale of 50,000 shares of Class A Common Stock for approximately $2.24 million, indicating a liquidity event rather than a conventional sale.
- Ownership Change: Following the sale, Davis's direct holdings decreased by 21.42%, leaving him with 183,426 shares valued at about $8.22 million, reflecting a decline in his ownership stake in the company.
- Options Exercise: The transaction involved the exercise of 50,000 fully vested employee stock options, indicating that Davis retains 50,000 options for future Class A shares, preserving potential upside participation.
- Investor Focus: While Davis's transaction fits a long-established pattern of option exercises, investors should concentrate on PBF Energy's profitability recovery in the 2026 market landscape rather than on this routine executive trading activity.
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PBF Energy to Release Q1 2026 Earnings on April 30
- Earnings Release Announcement: PBF Energy has announced that it will release its Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, which is expected to provide key financial metrics reflecting the company's operational status and aiding investors in assessing future performance.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET on the earnings release date, allowing investors to dial in at (800) 549-8228 or (646) 564-2877, enhancing engagement with stakeholders.
- Webcast Availability: The call will be webcast on PBF Energy's website, ensuring that global investors can access real-time updates on the company's latest developments, thereby improving transparency and information sharing.
- Company Background: PBF Energy is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, committed to safe, reliable, and environmentally responsible operations, while also partnering with St. Bernard Renewables in sustainable fuel production, showcasing its commitment to future energy transitions.
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Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure on Oil Prices
- Crude Supply Tightness: The IEA reports that 25% of global seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the prospect of its closure has driven oil prices up, prompting investors to consider U.S. companies like Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy to mitigate supply risks and secure capital returns.
- LNG Trade Disruption: Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait, and its closure will lead to rising prices worldwide, particularly impacting Europe; investors might look to Norway's Equinor and Australia's Woodside Energy to fill the supply gap in Asia.
- Refining Profit Surge: Refining stocks such as PBF Energy and Valero Energy have seen significant gains in 2026, with the 3-2-1 crack spread soaring from $20 at the start of the year to over $58, indicating that Asian refiners are facing higher crude procurement costs due to product shortages from the Gulf.
- Fertilizer Price Surge: The blockade of the Strait has stranded many fertilizer-laden ships, causing prices to soar and severely impacting Asian and African countries reliant on Gulf fertilizers; investors are turning to U.S. producers like CF Industries to navigate the tightening global fertilizer supply situation.
See More
Closure of Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Global Energy Markets
- Oil Price Surge: The International Energy Agency reports that 25% of the world's seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure has led to a sharp increase in oil prices, destabilizing global energy markets, particularly affecting import-dependent nations.
- LNG Trade Disruption: Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait, and Iran's threats to energy infrastructure create uncertainty in LNG supply, potentially driving up global prices, especially pressuring the European market.
- Refining Sector Gains: Due to crude oil supply shortages, the refining crack spread has skyrocketed from $20 at the beginning of the year to $58, significantly boosting stocks of refining companies like PBF Energy and Valero Energy, indicating strong profit potential in the current market environment.
- Fertilizer Price Increases: The blockade of the Strait has left many fertilizer-laden ships stranded, causing fertilizer prices to soar, which poses a significant challenge for Asian and African countries reliant on Gulf fertilizers, prompting investors to focus on U.S. producers like CF Industries.
See More
Analysis of PBF Energy's Dividend and Volatility
- Dividend Yield Expectation: PBF Energy's latest dividend yield is projected at 2.2%, and its sustainability must be assessed in conjunction with the company's historical profitability fluctuations, providing investors with a reasonable return expectation.
- Historical Volatility Analysis: PBF's trading history over the past twelve months indicates a current stock price of $49.53, with a calculated volatility of 67%, suggesting significant price fluctuations and relatively high investment risk.
- Options Trading Strategy: Given the current volatility, selling September covered calls at a $60 strike price may pose risks for investors, as any price increase beyond $60 would forfeit potential upside gains.
- Market Sentiment and Options Myths: While most options may expire worthless, combining fundamental analysis with historical data allows investors to better assess the risks and rewards of options trading.
See More
Analysis of XOP ETF Trading Dynamics
- Price Range Analysis: The XOP ETF has a 52-week low of $99.01 and a high of $190.36, with the last trade at $187.64, indicating significant volatility near its high, which may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade similarly to stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the ETF's liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), which can significantly affect the performance of the underlying stocks within the ETF.
See More
PBF Energy Executive Sells 50,000 Shares of Stock
- Transaction Overview: Paul T Davis, Senior VP of PBF Energy, reported the sale of 50,000 shares of Class A Common Stock for approximately $2.24 million, indicating a liquidity event rather than a conventional sale.
- Ownership Change: Following the sale, Davis's direct holdings decreased by 21.42%, leaving him with 183,426 shares valued at about $8.22 million, reflecting a decline in his ownership stake in the company.
- Options Exercise: The transaction involved the exercise of 50,000 fully vested employee stock options, indicating that Davis retains 50,000 options for future Class A shares, preserving potential upside participation.
- Investor Focus: While Davis's transaction fits a long-established pattern of option exercises, investors should concentrate on PBF Energy's profitability recovery in the 2026 market landscape rather than on this routine executive trading activity.
See More
PBF Energy to Release Q1 2026 Earnings on April 30
- Earnings Release Announcement: PBF Energy has announced that it will release its Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, which is expected to provide key financial metrics reflecting the company's operational status and aiding investors in assessing future performance.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET on the earnings release date, allowing investors to dial in at (800) 549-8228 or (646) 564-2877, enhancing engagement with stakeholders.
- Webcast Availability: The call will be webcast on PBF Energy's website, ensuring that global investors can access real-time updates on the company's latest developments, thereby improving transparency and information sharing.
- Company Background: PBF Energy is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, committed to safe, reliable, and environmentally responsible operations, while also partnering with St. Bernard Renewables in sustainable fuel production, showcasing its commitment to future energy transitions.
See More
Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure on Oil Prices
- Crude Supply Tightness: The IEA reports that 25% of global seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the prospect of its closure has driven oil prices up, prompting investors to consider U.S. companies like Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy to mitigate supply risks and secure capital returns.
- LNG Trade Disruption: Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait, and its closure will lead to rising prices worldwide, particularly impacting Europe; investors might look to Norway's Equinor and Australia's Woodside Energy to fill the supply gap in Asia.
- Refining Profit Surge: Refining stocks such as PBF Energy and Valero Energy have seen significant gains in 2026, with the 3-2-1 crack spread soaring from $20 at the start of the year to over $58, indicating that Asian refiners are facing higher crude procurement costs due to product shortages from the Gulf.
- Fertilizer Price Surge: The blockade of the Strait has stranded many fertilizer-laden ships, causing prices to soar and severely impacting Asian and African countries reliant on Gulf fertilizers; investors are turning to U.S. producers like CF Industries to navigate the tightening global fertilizer supply situation.
See More
Closure of Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Global Energy Markets
- Oil Price Surge: The International Energy Agency reports that 25% of the world's seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure has led to a sharp increase in oil prices, destabilizing global energy markets, particularly affecting import-dependent nations.
- LNG Trade Disruption: Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait, and Iran's threats to energy infrastructure create uncertainty in LNG supply, potentially driving up global prices, especially pressuring the European market.
- Refining Sector Gains: Due to crude oil supply shortages, the refining crack spread has skyrocketed from $20 at the beginning of the year to $58, significantly boosting stocks of refining companies like PBF Energy and Valero Energy, indicating strong profit potential in the current market environment.
- Fertilizer Price Increases: The blockade of the Strait has left many fertilizer-laden ships stranded, causing fertilizer prices to soar, which poses a significant challenge for Asian and African countries reliant on Gulf fertilizers, prompting investors to focus on U.S. producers like CF Industries.
See More
Analysis of PBF Energy's Dividend and Volatility
- Dividend Yield Expectation: PBF Energy's latest dividend yield is projected at 2.2%, and its sustainability must be assessed in conjunction with the company's historical profitability fluctuations, providing investors with a reasonable return expectation.
- Historical Volatility Analysis: PBF's trading history over the past twelve months indicates a current stock price of $49.53, with a calculated volatility of 67%, suggesting significant price fluctuations and relatively high investment risk.
- Options Trading Strategy: Given the current volatility, selling September covered calls at a $60 strike price may pose risks for investors, as any price increase beyond $60 would forfeit potential upside gains.
- Market Sentiment and Options Myths: While most options may expire worthless, combining fundamental analysis with historical data allows investors to better assess the risks and rewards of options trading.
See More
