Market Rotation: Software to Hardware Shift
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXP?
Source: CNBC
- Market Dynamics: During Thursday's livestream, Jim Cramer highlighted that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced a rotation from software to hardware following a 17% drop in ServiceNow shares, which, despite beating earnings expectations, cited the Iran war as a drag on subscription revenue growth.
- Hardware Stock Performance: Chip designer Arm led the hardware rally with a roughly 6% increase, reaching all-time highs, and has risen over 20% since we initiated a position three days ago; Jim called it an 'incredible move' but expressed concerns about CEO Rene Haas's expanded role at SoftBank.
- Procter & Gamble Outlook: Procter & Gamble's stock rose over 1%, trading around $145, with Jim indicating he would consider buying more if it drops below $140, expressing optimism about new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar, while the Street anticipates about 1% EPS growth and slightly below 2% organic revenue growth.
- Quick Recap: In Thursday's rapid-fire segment, Jim covered stocks including American Express, IBM, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and Thermo Fisher, emphasizing his ongoing focus on these companies and reminding subscribers that they will receive trade alerts before any transactions.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 318.690
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 318.690
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand powered by technology. Its card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses offer products and services to a broad range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its range of products and services includes credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, lifestyle and expense management products and services; banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, and network services. These products and services are offered through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers, and business partners.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Miss: Capital One reported Q1 revenue of $15.2 billion and an adjusted EPS of $4.42, down 2% year-over-year and missing analyst expectations of $15.4 billion and $4.55, indicating increasing financial strain on consumers.
- Rising Loan Loss Provisions: The company's loan-loss provision surged to $4.07 billion, exceeding estimates of $3.77 billion and significantly up from $2.37 billion a year ago, highlighting escalating bad debt risks that could impact future profitability.
- Increasing Delinquency Rates: TransUnion reported that the percentage of credit card holders 90 days late on payments rose to 2.53%, nearing a two-year high, reflecting consumer vulnerability amid record-high credit card balances and ongoing spending pressures.
- Widespread Industry Challenges: The struggles are not limited to Capital One, as both Papa John's and McDonald's reported revenue and earnings misses, underscoring the broader economic challenges affecting various sectors, which could lead to weakened overall market performance.
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- Rising Loan Defaults: Capital One Financial's Q1 report reveals a loan-loss provision of $4.07 billion, exceeding the $3.77 billion estimate, indicating increasing financial strain on consumers that could impact the company's future profitability.
- Consumer Spending Risks: While consumer spending is up, the rise in bad debt is concerning, with Capital One's charge-offs increasing from $2.74 billion to $3.85 billion, reflecting negative economic impacts that may lead to a contraction in the overall consumer market.
- Restaurant Sector Challenges: Reports from Papa John's and McDonald's indicate that the former experienced a 6.4% decline in same-store sales, while the latter relied heavily on value meals to navigate economic pressures, suggesting even strong brands are not immune to economic slowdowns, potentially affecting their market share.
- Increasing Credit Card Delinquencies: TransUnion reports that the percentage of credit card holders 90 days late on payments has risen to a near two-year high of 2.53%, amidst record credit card balances of $1.12 trillion, raising concerns about consumer financial health that could trigger broader economic repercussions.
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- Strong Revenue Growth: Visa's revenue for Q2 2026 rose 17% year-over-year to $11.23 billion, exceeding analysts' estimates by $480 million, marking its strongest growth since 2022 and indicating robust market demand recovery.
- Earnings Per Share Increase: Adjusted EPS grew 20% to $3.31, surpassing consensus forecasts by $0.22, reflecting effective cost management and profitability, which boosts investor confidence in its future performance.
- Business Model Advantage: Visa's partnership model with banks rather than issuing its own cards allows for rapid expansion and the introduction of value-added services like cybersecurity and data analytics, enhancing its competitive edge and customer stickiness.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite facing inflation and regulatory pressures, Visa raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance and launched a $20 billion share repurchase program, with expected revenue and EPS growth rates of 11% and 18% CAGR from fiscal 2025 to 2028.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Visa's revenue for Q2 of fiscal 2026 rose 17% year-over-year to $11.23 billion, exceeding analysts' estimates by $480 million, marking the strongest revenue growth since 2022 and indicating robust market demand recovery.
- Earnings Per Share Increase: The adjusted EPS grew by 20% to $3.31, surpassing the consensus forecast by $0.22, reflecting effective strategies in cost control and revenue enhancement, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Share Buyback Program Launched: Visa announced a new $20 billion stock repurchase program aimed at enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence in its future growth, indicating the company's trust in its financial health.
- Long-Term Growth Outlook: Analysts expect Visa's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 11% and 18% from fiscal 2025 to 2028, and despite facing inflation and regulatory pressures, its strong market position and business model suggest it remains a valuable investment for the future.
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- Significant Earnings Growth: American Express reported $18.9 billion in revenue and $4.28 earnings per share for Q1, marking increases of 10% and 18% respectively, surpassing analysts' expectations of $18.6 billion and about $4 per share, demonstrating the company's resilience amid economic uncertainty.
- High-End Consumer Spending Rebounds: Despite economic pressures, restaurant and airline spending rose by 9% and 8% respectively, indicating the continued strong purchasing power of affluent customers, which further solidifies American Express's market position.
- Stable Outlook: While the market remains cautious about future marketing and technology expenditures, American Express still anticipates revenue growth of 9% to 10% by 2026, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects.
- Investor Caution: Despite strong performance, the stock price fell due to failure to raise future guidance, highlighting a gap between investor expectations for future growth and the company's actual projections.
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- Strong Earnings Report: American Express reported first-quarter revenue of $18.9 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, with earnings per share at $4.28, surpassing analysts' expectations of $4, demonstrating the company's resilience amid economic uncertainty.
- Affluent Customer Spending: Despite a challenging economic backdrop, spending from affluent customers remained robust, with restaurant spending up 9% and airline spending up 8%, indicating the strength of American Express's customer base during economic fluctuations.
- Future Growth Outlook: The company anticipates revenue growth between 9% and 10% for 2026, with earnings per share projected between $17.30 and $17.90; although the market was disappointed by the lack of an upward revision, it still reflects stable growth potential.
- Investor Confidence Recovery: Despite a decline in stock price following the earnings report, investor confidence appears to be gradually returning as the market recognizes the company's long-term performance capabilities, indicating American Express's ability to perform well across various economic environments.
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