Kalshi Co-Founder Discusses Risk Management Strategies
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 14 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CME?
Source: CNBC
- Market Innovation: Founded in 2018, Kalshi allows users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes across diverse areas such as weather, sports, and economics, driving innovation in the U.S. prediction market and showcasing its potential in fintech.
- Regulatory Challenges: Before receiving approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi faced years of regulatory battles, with founders defending their market concept through legal research and data analysis, ultimately succeeding in legitimizing prediction markets.
- Volume Growth: Kalshi currently sees $2 billion in weekly transactions, with over $130 million in trading volume during the New York City mayoral election, demonstrating its market influence and user engagement during significant events.
- Funding and Valuation: Recently, Kalshi raised $1 billion, achieving an $11 billion valuation, reflecting strong investor confidence in its business model and future growth potential, while also navigating legal and regulatory challenges.
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Analyst Views on CME
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 297.580
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
Current: 297.580
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
About CME
CME Group Inc. provides a derivatives marketplace. The Company enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and over the counter (OTC) markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data. It exchanges offer a range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), energy, agricultural products and metals. It offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and FX trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates central counterparty clearing provider, CME Clearing. Its products provide a means for hedging, speculation and asset allocation related to the risks associated with, among other things, interest rate sensitive instruments, and changes in the prices of agricultural, energy and metal commodities. It provides clearing and settlement services for a range of exchange-traded futures and options on futures contracts and OTC derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Reaction Weakens: Trump's extension of the deadline to attack Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6 initially boosted stock futures as oil prices fell, but investor anxiety about the situation kept the market under pressure.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Iran's foreign minister stated that Tehran does not intend to negotiate with the U.S., and the Pentagon is considering sending an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East, raising concerns about further conflict escalation and impacting investor confidence.
- Economic Growth Outlook Downgraded: The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tracker shows first-quarter growth expectations have been revised down from 3.1% to 2%, reflecting investor worries about the war's impact on the U.S. and global economy.
- Inflation Concerns Rise: With rising energy prices, the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 52% probability of a rate hike by year-end, intensifying fears regarding the economic outlook and the potential for stagflation.
See More
Legislation Introduced to Ban Election Prediction Market Bets
- Legislative Proposal: Senators Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren, along with Rep. Jamie Raskin, have introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, aimed at banning prediction market bets on elections, government actions, and sports, highlighting increasing scrutiny on these platforms.
- Corruption Risks: Merkley emphasized that allowing individuals to place well-timed bets on congressional bills or military actions creates ripe conditions for corruption and undermines public trust, potentially affecting the integrity of democratic institutions.
- Market Regulation: The new bill imposes broader restrictions on prediction markets than previous measures, clarifying that these markets contradict the intent of federal trading laws and returning regulatory power over gambling to the states, addressing existing legal loopholes.
- Industry Response: Prediction market platform Kalshi criticized the legislation, claiming it is driven by casino interests threatened by competition, reflecting strong opposition within the industry and concerns about the future of prediction markets.
See More
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- Legislative Proposal: Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act, aiming to transfer regulatory control of sports betting and casino-style games to states rather than federal agencies, which could significantly alter the existing market structure.
- Insufficient Self-Regulation: Despite Kalshi and Polymarket announcing new rules to restrict relevant individuals from betting on their platforms, Schiff argues that these measures are inadequate, emphasizing the need for stricter oversight to prevent insider trading and market manipulation.
- Market Risk Warning: Schiff cautioned that current regulations fail to effectively address the potential risks of insider trading, particularly with the application of blockchain technology, which could lead to unregulated gambling activities that undermine market fairness.
- Economic Impact Analysis: Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that while only about 3% of the population engages in sports betting post-legalization, overall credit delinquency rises by 0.3 percentage points, highlighting the potential negative impact of widespread gambling on household financial stability.
See More
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Impact of Trade on STP: The article discusses the implications of trade issues affecting the STP (São Tomé and Príncipe) region, highlighting the challenges faced by local businesses.
Awareness Initiatives: It emphasizes the importance of raising awareness about these trade impacts to foster better understanding and support for affected communities.
Economic Consequences: The piece outlines potential economic consequences for the region, including job losses and reduced economic growth due to trade disruptions.
Call to Action: There is a call for stakeholders to engage in dialogue and develop strategies to mitigate the negative effects of trade on the STP region.
See More
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