Jet Fuel Crisis Threatens Global Supply Chains
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Supply Chain Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a 30% drop in global jet fuel exports in April, down to 1.3 million barrels per day, directly impacting air travel in Europe and Asia and potentially causing significant disruptions this summer.
- Price Surge: As of May 1, jet fuel prices in Europe have doubled to $187 per barrel, forcing Lufthansa to cut 20,000 short-haul flights, highlighting the immense pressure fuel costs are placing on the airline industry.
- Alternative Supply Efforts: The EU is actively seeking jet fuel supplies from the U.S., with exports to Europe surging over 400% to 94,000 bpd in April, demonstrating a proactive response from U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum to global demand.
- Future Risks: As the market relies on commercial inventories to mitigate supply disruptions, countries dependent on energy imports may face critical shortages by June or July, with the broader economic impacts becoming increasingly apparent.
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Analyst Views on VLO
Wall Street analysts forecast VLO stock price to fall
17 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 236.350
Low
149.00
Averages
186.56
High
223.00
Current: 236.350
Low
149.00
Averages
186.56
High
223.00
About VLO
Valero Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The Company sells its products primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America. Its segments include Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The Refining segment includes the operations of its petroleum refineries, the associated activities to market its refined petroleum products, and the logistics assets that support its refining operations. The Renewable Diesel segment represents the operations of Diamond Green Diesel (DGD), and the associated activities to market renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat SAF. The Ethanol segment includes the operations of its ethanol plants and the associated activities to market its ethanol and co-products. It owns 15 petroleum refineries located in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Supply Chain Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a 30% drop in global jet fuel exports in April, down to 1.3 million barrels per day, directly impacting air travel in Europe and Asia and potentially causing significant disruptions this summer.
- Price Surge: As of May 1, jet fuel prices in Europe have doubled to $187 per barrel, forcing Lufthansa to cut 20,000 short-haul flights, highlighting the immense pressure fuel costs are placing on the airline industry.
- Alternative Supply Efforts: The EU is actively seeking jet fuel supplies from the U.S., with exports to Europe surging over 400% to 94,000 bpd in April, demonstrating a proactive response from U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum to global demand.
- Future Risks: As the market relies on commercial inventories to mitigate supply disruptions, countries dependent on energy imports may face critical shortages by June or July, with the broader economic impacts becoming increasingly apparent.
See More
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- Yield Information: The forward yield of 2.03% provides investors with a relatively stable return, enhancing market attractiveness for the company's stock.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on June 23, with a record date of May 21 and an ex-dividend date also set for May 21, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly.
- Dividend Growth Potential: Valero's consistent dividend growth and stability reflect its strong performance in the energy market, potentially attracting more income-seeking investors to its stock.
See More
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- Market Retreat: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.28%, indicating a retreat in market sentiment as rising oil prices weigh on investor confidence and raise concerns about future economic prospects.
- Strong Employment Data: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 10,000 to 200,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 205,000, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to a 2.25-year low of 1.766 million, showcasing economic resilience.
- Productivity and Costs: U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.6%, while unit labor costs rose by 2.3%, below the anticipated 2.5%, which may influence future inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Boston Fed President indicated that interest rates should remain at “mildly restrictive” levels, suggesting that if inflation trends worsen significantly, a reassessment of policy would be necessary, with markets pricing in only a 6% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.
See More
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- Tech Stock Surge: Datadog reported Q1 revenue of $1.01 billion, exceeding the consensus of $957.8 million, leading to a stock price increase of over 30%, which boosts overall market sentiment and reflects strong recovery in the tech sector amid high investor expectations for artificial intelligence.
- Stable Labor Market: Initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000, lower than the expected 205,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to a 2.25-year low of 1.766 million, further enhancing market confidence.
- Crude Oil Price Decline: WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 4% as markets await updates on a potential US-Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, negatively impacting energy producers and leading to widespread declines in related stocks.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Boston Fed President indicated that interest rates should remain at
See More
Mixed US Stock Indices with Nasdaq 100 Reaching All-Time High
- Nasdaq Milestone: The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.20%, achieving a new all-time high, driven by strong performance in tech stocks, particularly Datadog, which surged over 30% following its blowout earnings report.
- Oil Price Decline: WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 4% today as the market awaits updates on a potential US-Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil prices and supply chains.
- Stable Labor Market: Initial US unemployment claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000, below expectations of 205,000, indicating labor market resilience, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell to a 2.25-year low of 1.766 million.
- Strong Corporate Earnings: So far, 84% of the 411 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have beaten estimates, with Q1 earnings projected to climb 12% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing improvements in corporate profitability, although growth outside the tech sector is only 3%.
See More
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- Tech Stocks Rally: The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.08% to reach an all-time high on Wednesday, driven by stellar earnings from chipmakers and AI infrastructure firms, particularly Advanced Micro Devices, which rose over 17% as it raised its full-year sales forecast, reflecting strong investor optimism about ongoing AI investments.
- Crude Oil Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell more than 7% to a two-week low as market expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement increased, easing inflation fears and contributing to stock market gains, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a one-week low of 4.33%.
- Employment Data Impact: The April ADP employment report indicated that US companies added 109,000 jobs, below the expected 120,000, yet the market remains optimistic about the Fed's monetary policy, believing it will help maintain a low interest rate environment.
- International Market Surge: Overseas stock markets closed sharply higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 2.68% and China's Shanghai Composite gaining 1.17%, indicating a positive global market response to the US economic recovery, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Jet Fuel Crisis Threatens Global Supply Chains
- Supply Chain Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a 30% drop in global jet fuel exports in April, down to 1.3 million barrels per day, directly impacting air travel in Europe and Asia and potentially causing significant disruptions this summer.
- Price Surge: As of May 1, jet fuel prices in Europe have doubled to $187 per barrel, forcing Lufthansa to cut 20,000 short-haul flights, highlighting the immense pressure fuel costs are placing on the airline industry.
- Alternative Supply Efforts: The EU is actively seeking jet fuel supplies from the U.S., with exports to Europe surging over 400% to 94,000 bpd in April, demonstrating a proactive response from U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum to global demand.
- Future Risks: As the market relies on commercial inventories to mitigate supply disruptions, countries dependent on energy imports may face critical shortages by June or July, with the broader economic impacts becoming increasingly apparent.
See More
