Is Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) Currently Priced 41% Below Its Value?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 31 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MO?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Altria Group Valuation Analysis
- Fair Value Estimate: Altria Group's fair value is estimated at US$114, indicating a significant undervaluation of 41% compared to its current share price of US$67.21.
- Analyst Price Target: The average analyst price target for Altria is US$62.88, which is 45% lower than the fair value estimate.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model
- Methodology: The analysis employs a two-stage DCF model, which accounts for an initial high growth phase followed by a steady growth period. Future cash flows are estimated and discounted to present value.
- Projected Cash Flows: Expected levered free cash flows (FCF) from 2026 to 2035 are projected to grow from US$8.97 billion to US$11.5 billion, with growth rates gradually increasing from 1.70% to 2.85%.
- Present Value Calculation: The present value of the 10-year cash flows totals approximately US$69 billion, discounted at a rate of 7.7%.
Terminal Value and Total Equity Value
- Terminal Value Calculation: The terminal value is calculated at US$256 billion, using a conservative growth rate of 3.1% based on the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield.
- Total Equity Value: The total equity value, combining the present value of cash flows and terminal value, is estimated at US$191 billion, leading to a per-share valuation that suggests the stock is undervalued.
Financial Strengths and Weaknesses
- Strengths: Altria's earnings and cash flows adequately cover its debt and dividends, placing it in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Weaknesses: The company has experienced a decline in earnings over the past year, and total liabilities exceed total assets, raising financial distress concerns.
Future Outlook and Risks
- Growth Forecast: Annual earnings are expected to grow over the next three years, although at a slower rate compared to the broader American market.
- Investment Considerations: The analysis emphasizes that valuation is just one aspect of investment decisions, and potential investors should consider risks, future earnings growth, and alternative investment opportunities.
Conclusion
- Valuation Limitations: The DCF model is not foolproof and should be used to test assumptions rather than provide definitive valuations. Changes in growth rates or cost of equity can significantly alter outcomes.
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Analyst Views on MO
Wall Street analysts forecast MO stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 67.040
Low
57.00
Averages
65.00
High
72.00
Current: 67.040
Low
57.00
Averages
65.00
High
72.00
About MO
Altria Group, Inc. operates a portfolio of tobacco products for United States tobacco consumers aged 21+. Its segments include smokeable products and oral tobacco products. The smokeable products segment consists of combustible cigarettes and machine-made large cigars. The oral tobacco products segment includes moist smokeless tobacco (MST) products and oral nicotine pouches. Its wholly owned subsidiaries include manufacturers of both combustible and smoke-free products. In combustibles, it owns Philip Morris USA Inc. (PM USA), and John Middleton Co. (Middleton), which are cigarette manufacturers. Its smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC (USSTC), a global MST manufacturer, Helix Innovations LLC (Helix), a manufacturer of oral nicotine pouches, and NJOY, LLC (NJOY), an e-vapor manufacturer with a commercialized product portfolio. The brand portfolios of its operating companies include Marlboro, Black & Mild, Copenhagen, Skoal, on! and NJOY.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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