Is MDU (MDU) Undervalued Following Its Recent Drop in Share Price?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MDU?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Recent Stock Performance: MDU Resources Group has experienced a 10% pullback in share price over the past week, despite a 19% increase over the last three months and ongoing earnings growth.
Valuation Insights: The stock is currently trading at $19.26, below the narrative fair value of $20.50, raising questions about whether it is undervalued or if future growth is already priced in.
Growth Potential: MDU is well-positioned to benefit from significant investments in U.S. infrastructure, particularly in pipeline expansions and energy needs, which could lead to substantial revenue and earnings growth.
Investment Risks: The stock trades at a higher price-to-earnings ratio compared to its peers, indicating limited margin for error if growth falters, and potential risks include faster clean energy adoption and persistent cost inflation.
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Analyst Views on MDU
Wall Street analysts forecast MDU stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 20.810
Low
20.00
Averages
21.00
High
22.00
Current: 20.810
Low
20.00
Averages
21.00
High
22.00
About MDU
MDU Resources Group Inc. provides electric and natural gas distribution services across the Pacific Northwest and Midwest. The Company's segments include electric, natural gas distribution and pipeline. Its electric segment provides electric service at retail, serving residential, commercial, industrial and municipal customers in approximately 185 communities and adjacent rural areas. It has interests in approximately 14 electric generating units at 11 facilities and two small portable diesel generators. Its natural gas distribution segment sells natural gas at retail, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers in approximately 339 communities and adjacent rural areas across eight states. Its pipeline segment operates a more than 3,800-mile natural gas pipeline network and storage system, ensuring energy delivery across the Northern Plains. Its underground storage fields provide natural gas storage services to local distribution companies, industrial customers and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MDU Resources (MDU) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
MDU Resources Group Reports Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: MDU Resources Group reported full-year 2025 earnings of $190.4 million, or $0.93 per share, aligning with company guidance, demonstrating stability following its transition to a pure-play regulated energy delivery business.
- Capital Investment Plan Update: The company revised its capital investment plan for 2026-2030 to $3.1 billion, reflecting the accelerated acquisition of the Badger Wind Farm, which is expected to further drive future business growth.
- Sustained Customer Growth: MDU experienced a retail customer growth rate of 1.5%, aligning with its annual growth target of 1% to 2%, indicating the company's competitive position and solid customer base in the market.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The 2026 EPS guidance is set between $0.93 and $1 per share, with a long-term EPS growth target of 6% to 8%, reflecting the company's confidence in its future growth strategy.
See More
MDU Resources Reports Q4 Earnings Miss with Guidance for 2026
- Earnings Report Disappointment: MDU Resources reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.37, which fell short of market expectations, with revenue of $534 million reflecting a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3% and missing analyst estimates by $27.46 million, indicating challenges in revenue growth for the company.
- Future Guidance: The company has set its earnings per share guidance for 2026 in the range of $0.93 to $1.00, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on future profitability, which may attract long-term investors despite the current disappointing performance.
- Public Offering Activity: MDU Resources plans to publicly offer 10.15 million shares, aiming to raise capital through the equity market to support future growth strategies, which could impact the company's capital structure and market liquidity.
- Historical Performance Review: Historical earnings data and dividend scorecards for MDU Resources indicate that despite the current underperformance, the company has maintained a degree of stability in past financial performance and shareholder returns, potentially providing confidence to investors.
See More
MDU Resources Group Reports 2025 Financial Results
- Infrastructure Investment: MDU Resources deployed $792 million in capital during 2025, advancing key projects including a 49% stake in Badger Wind Farm, achieving customer growth despite higher operating costs and weather variability, demonstrating the company's ongoing execution in energy delivery.
- Electric Utility Performance: The electric utility segment reported net income of $64.9 million, down from $74.8 million in 2024, primarily due to rising operation and maintenance expenses, particularly related to planned outages at the Coyote generating station, reflecting challenges in cost control.
- Natural Gas Distribution Growth: The natural gas distribution segment's net income rose to $56.1 million from $46.9 million in 2024, driven by rate relief in Washington, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming, showcasing the company's regulatory progress across multiple jurisdictions.
- Future Outlook: MDU Resources expects earnings per share in the range of $0.93 to $1.00 for 2026 and plans to invest $560 million to support major pipeline projects, indicating the company's strategic commitment to meeting rising energy demand.
See More
Major Earnings Reports Expected Before Thursday's Open
- Earnings Reporting Companies: Major companies expected to report earnings before Thursday's open include Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Shell (SHEL), Barrick Gold (B), and ConocoPhillips (COP), all of which hold significant positions in their respective industries and could impact market sentiment.
- Additional Earnings Forecasts: Other companies slated to release earnings before Thursday's open include AGCO, BBVA, and HP, spanning multiple sectors, reflecting broad market interest and investor anticipation.
- Market Reaction Expectations: The release of these earnings reports may trigger market volatility, prompting investors to closely monitor company performance to adjust their investment strategies and seize potential opportunities.
- Earnings Season Calendar: Seeking Alpha provides a comprehensive earnings season calendar, allowing investors to access more information to make informed investment decisions.
See More
MDU Resources Set to Announce FY Earnings on February 5th
- Earnings Announcement Date: MDU Resources is set to release its FY earnings report on February 5th before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.92 and revenue expected to reach $1.92 billion, reflecting the company's commitment to financial transparency.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, MDU has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating strong performance in profitability and market expectation management.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions but experienced two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates had two upward revisions, suggesting increased market confidence in MDU's future revenue growth.
- Market Reaction Expectations: As the earnings report approaches, investor interest in MDU Resources is rising, particularly against the backdrop of the company's recent public offering of 10.15 million shares and a $200 million stock offering, which may influence stock price volatility.
See More
MDU Resources (MDU) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
MDU Resources Group Reports Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: MDU Resources Group reported full-year 2025 earnings of $190.4 million, or $0.93 per share, aligning with company guidance, demonstrating stability following its transition to a pure-play regulated energy delivery business.
- Capital Investment Plan Update: The company revised its capital investment plan for 2026-2030 to $3.1 billion, reflecting the accelerated acquisition of the Badger Wind Farm, which is expected to further drive future business growth.
- Sustained Customer Growth: MDU experienced a retail customer growth rate of 1.5%, aligning with its annual growth target of 1% to 2%, indicating the company's competitive position and solid customer base in the market.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The 2026 EPS guidance is set between $0.93 and $1 per share, with a long-term EPS growth target of 6% to 8%, reflecting the company's confidence in its future growth strategy.
See More
MDU Resources Reports Q4 Earnings Miss with Guidance for 2026
- Earnings Report Disappointment: MDU Resources reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.37, which fell short of market expectations, with revenue of $534 million reflecting a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3% and missing analyst estimates by $27.46 million, indicating challenges in revenue growth for the company.
- Future Guidance: The company has set its earnings per share guidance for 2026 in the range of $0.93 to $1.00, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on future profitability, which may attract long-term investors despite the current disappointing performance.
- Public Offering Activity: MDU Resources plans to publicly offer 10.15 million shares, aiming to raise capital through the equity market to support future growth strategies, which could impact the company's capital structure and market liquidity.
- Historical Performance Review: Historical earnings data and dividend scorecards for MDU Resources indicate that despite the current underperformance, the company has maintained a degree of stability in past financial performance and shareholder returns, potentially providing confidence to investors.
See More
MDU Resources Group Reports 2025 Financial Results
- Infrastructure Investment: MDU Resources deployed $792 million in capital during 2025, advancing key projects including a 49% stake in Badger Wind Farm, achieving customer growth despite higher operating costs and weather variability, demonstrating the company's ongoing execution in energy delivery.
- Electric Utility Performance: The electric utility segment reported net income of $64.9 million, down from $74.8 million in 2024, primarily due to rising operation and maintenance expenses, particularly related to planned outages at the Coyote generating station, reflecting challenges in cost control.
- Natural Gas Distribution Growth: The natural gas distribution segment's net income rose to $56.1 million from $46.9 million in 2024, driven by rate relief in Washington, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming, showcasing the company's regulatory progress across multiple jurisdictions.
- Future Outlook: MDU Resources expects earnings per share in the range of $0.93 to $1.00 for 2026 and plans to invest $560 million to support major pipeline projects, indicating the company's strategic commitment to meeting rising energy demand.
See More
Major Earnings Reports Expected Before Thursday's Open
- Earnings Reporting Companies: Major companies expected to report earnings before Thursday's open include Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Shell (SHEL), Barrick Gold (B), and ConocoPhillips (COP), all of which hold significant positions in their respective industries and could impact market sentiment.
- Additional Earnings Forecasts: Other companies slated to release earnings before Thursday's open include AGCO, BBVA, and HP, spanning multiple sectors, reflecting broad market interest and investor anticipation.
- Market Reaction Expectations: The release of these earnings reports may trigger market volatility, prompting investors to closely monitor company performance to adjust their investment strategies and seize potential opportunities.
- Earnings Season Calendar: Seeking Alpha provides a comprehensive earnings season calendar, allowing investors to access more information to make informed investment decisions.
See More
MDU Resources Set to Announce FY Earnings on February 5th
- Earnings Announcement Date: MDU Resources is set to release its FY earnings report on February 5th before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.92 and revenue expected to reach $1.92 billion, reflecting the company's commitment to financial transparency.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, MDU has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating strong performance in profitability and market expectation management.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions but experienced two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates had two upward revisions, suggesting increased market confidence in MDU's future revenue growth.
- Market Reaction Expectations: As the earnings report approaches, investor interest in MDU Resources is rising, particularly against the backdrop of the company's recent public offering of 10.15 million shares and a $200 million stock offering, which may influence stock price volatility.
See More
