Should I Buy MDU? MDU 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

20.530

1 Day change

0.44%

52 Week Range

21.490

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

MDU is not a good buy right now. The chart is mildly bullish, but the stock is already above the latest $20 analyst price target, fundamentals in 2025/Q3 showed a sharp earnings drop, and there are no Intellectia buy signals today. With an upcoming earnings event (2026-02-05 pre-market) and no clear edge at the current ~$20.52 level, the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Mildly bullish. The moving averages are aligned bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an uptrend is in place. Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.00784) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~55.8 is neutral, consistent with a grind higher rather than a breakout. Levels: Price is sitting right on the pivot (~20.513). Near-term resistance is R1 ~20.883 then R2 ~21.112; support is S1 ~20.142 then S2 ~19.913. From here, upside to R1 is limited versus a similar-sized pullback risk to S1/S2. Pattern/stat edge: The provided pattern model suggests +1.66% over the next week but -1.04% over the next month, which aligns with a short-term drift higher but weaker medium-term expectancy. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open interest put/call at 0.25 is strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning). Volume put/call at 0.0 reflects essentially no put volume today, but total volume is tiny (only 4 contracts), so the signal is not very reliable. Volatility: 30D IV ~73.9% versus historical volatility ~21.8% indicates options are priced very expensively relative to realized moves. That usually implies the market is pricing event risk (earnings is coming on 2026-02-05) or uncertainty; it does not automatically mean the stock is a buy. Takeaway: Options positioning leans bullish, but low liquidity and very high IV reduce the usefulness of the signal for a clean directional buy right now.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

indicates bullish positioning.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

profitability deteriorated sharply (Net Income and EPS down ~72% YoY), which can cap valuation and upside.
is already above that target, implying limited upside per that coverage.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $315.036M, up 8.75% YoY (top-line growth is positive). Profitability: Net income $18.311M, down 71.66% YoY; EPS $0.09, down 71.88% YoY (major earnings compression). Margins: Gross margin 64.91%, up 0.84% YoY (slight improvement, but not enough to prevent earnings decline). Overall: Growth in revenue is being overshadowed by a steep decline in earnings power, which weakens the case for buying at current levels ahead of earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change: On 2025-12-25, Freedom Capital initiated coverage at Hold with a $20 price target. Trend: Only one recent data point provided; it’s a neutral stance rather than an upgrade cycle. Wall Street pro view (pros/cons): Pros: Regulated electric/natural gas/pipeline mix across multiple states implies predictable cost recovery and stable returns. Cons: Valuation and regulatory gaps could hurt near-term results; current price is already above the $20 target, limiting implied upside. Influential/insider/political activity: Hedge fund and insider trends are Neutral; no recent Congress trading data available (no politician-driven signal).

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MDU stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDU is 21 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 20.440

Low

Averages

High

Current: 20.440

Low

Averages

High

Freedom Capital

Hold

initiated

$20

AI Analysis

2025-12-25

Reason

Freedom Capital

Price Target

$20

AI Analysis

2025-12-25

initiated

Hold

Reason

Freedom Capital initiated coverage of MDU Resources with a Hold rating and $20 price target. The firm says MDU operates regulated electric, natural gas, and pipeline businesses across eight U.S. states. This provides "predictable long-term cost recovery and stable returns," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Freedom cites the stock's valuation and "regulatory gaps" potentially hurting the company's financial results in the near-term for the Hold rating.

Jefferies

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Buy

maintain

$20 -> $22

2025-10-22

Reason

Jefferies

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Price Target

$20 -> $22

2025-10-22

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith raised the firm's price target on MDU Resources to $22 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees a mostly positive Q3 "super cycle" of updates with messages of "capex up & cost of capital down" from the utilities group, the analyst tells investors in a sector preview.

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MDU Should I Buy

MDU Should I Buy

Should You Buy MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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