Investment Outlook for Rocket Lab vs. Joby Aviation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RKLB?
Source: Fool
- Rocket Lab's Market Position: Rocket Lab's stock surged nearly 300% over the past year, with 2025 annual revenue reaching $602 million, a 38% year-over-year increase, indicating strong demand in the small and medium-lift launch market, and future success hinges on the upcoming Neutron rocket launch.
- Backlog Growth: Rocket Lab's backlog has grown to $1.85 billion, a 73% increase from last year, reflecting its competitive edge in the aerospace sector and providing robust support for future revenue growth.
- Joby Aviation's Expansion Plans: Joby Aviation plans to double its monthly production capacity from two to four aircraft by 2027 to meet global demand for advanced air mobility; despite a net loss of nearly $930 million in 2025, its $1.4 billion liquid position supports future growth.
- Importance of FAA Certification: Joby Aviation's success hinges on obtaining final FAA certification, expected in 2026, and while facing high operating costs and regulatory uncertainties, its projected revenue for 2026 is set to double to $105 million to $115 million, indicating potential market opportunities.
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Analyst Views on RKLB
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 60.930
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
Current: 60.930
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
About RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation is an end-to-end space company. The Company designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets, spacecraft and spacecraft components, and related software and services to support the space economy. The Company delivers reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it easier to access space. Its Launch Services segment provides launch and launch-related services to customers on a dedicated mission or ride-share basis. Its Space Systems segment comprises the design and manufacture of spacecraft components and spacecraft program management services, space data applications, and mission operations. Its space systems solutions are the building blocks for spacecraft, which include composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, solar solutions, radios, separation systems, and command and control spacecraft software.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rocket Lab Secures $190 Million HASTE Contract
- Historic Contract: On March 23, Rocket Lab secured a $190 million HASTE launch contract, marking the largest launch contract in the company's history and indicating a significant expansion in its defense sector presence, which is expected to enhance its market position.
- Increased Launch Backlog: This contract brings Rocket Lab's total launch backlog to over 70, showcasing its robust capabilities in rapid response and high-frequency launches, further solidifying its position as the small launch vehicle of choice.
- Defense Collaboration: The contract supports the U.S. Department of Defense's initiative to accelerate hypersonic flight testing over a four-year period, highlighting Rocket Lab's technological capabilities and the strong growth in market demand within the defense sector.
- Maintained Success Rate: Rocket Lab boasts a 100% mission success rate across all HASTE launches and has already sold 28 new launches in Q1 2026, nearly matching last year's total, reflecting its critical role in commercial, civil, and defense missions.
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- AST SpaceMobile Reaction: Following the SpaceX news, AST SpaceMobile's stock surged by 10.4%, but it subsequently fell by 8.5% on Thursday, indicating investor concerns over its valuation at 325 times sales amidst a lack of earnings.
- Rocket Lab Performance: Rocket Lab's stock also rose by 10.3% due to the SpaceX announcement but dropped 9.5% afterward; despite its consistent revenue growth and potential profitability next year, its valuation at nearly 60 times sales remains high.
- Investor Caution: While the SpaceX IPO prospect has generated market excitement, investors are showing caution towards the high valuations of AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, reflecting uncertainties about the future of the space industry.
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- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX is expected to file its IPO prospectus within days, aiming to raise $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially overshadowing other space companies.
- Market Reaction: The news of SpaceX's IPO sparked investor enthusiasm, with AST SpaceMobile shares rising 10.4% and Rocket Lab increasing by 10.3%, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the aerospace sector.
- Price Volatility: However, the following trading day saw AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab stocks drop 8.5% and 9.5%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and rapid shifts in market sentiment.
- Investment Advice: While Rocket Lab shows stable revenue growth and is expected to be profitable next year, its stock trades at nearly 60 times sales, prompting investors to carefully assess their buying decisions to avoid entering at inflated prices.
See More
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- Flight Testing Initiative: This collaboration will utilize Starfighters' F-104 supersonic aircraft for manned flight tests, culminating in a high-altitude supersonic release that models the reentry flight trajectory of Blackstar's 'microshuttle' platform, further validating its performance in real-world conditions.
- Innovative Technical Interface: Starfighters has provided a specialized BL75 pylon as the structural interface between the F-104 and the SpaceDrone, enabling phased captive carry and eventual release testing, thereby enhancing its technical capabilities in the aerospace sector.
- Expanding Market Potential: With the U.S. Space Force budget reaching $40 billion, hypersonic testing and reusable space systems are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the aerospace and defense market, and this partnership will further solidify Starfighters' position in this rapidly evolving landscape.
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- Integration Advantage: By integrating Blackstar's SpaceDrone with its F-104 supersonic aircraft platform, Starfighters not only enhances testing efficiency but also provides a high-performance environment for validating future aerospace systems, further solidifying its leadership in the aerospace defense market.
- Market Potential: With the U.S. Space Force's budget reaching $40 billion this year and the Pentagon shifting decisively towards commercial solutions, this partnership positions Starfighters as a critical player in the rapidly growing hypersonic weapons development sector, attracting increased capital investment.
- Diversified Development Strategy: This collaboration complements Starfighters' operational expansion at Midland International Air & Space Port in Texas, showcasing the company's strategic positioning across multiple domains, including microgravity flight and hypersonic testing, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
See More
Rocket Lab Completes First Dedicated Mission for ESA
- Successful Launch: Rocket Lab successfully launched the 'Daughter Of The Stars' mission on March 28, highlighting the increasing importance of its Electron rocket in providing commercial launch services for government space programs, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the aerospace market.
- Mission Details: The launch took place from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand, successfully deploying the European Space Agency's 'Celeste' payload into low Earth orbit at an altitude of 510 km, demonstrating Rocket Lab's capabilities in precision launches.
- Future Plans: Rocket Lab has a full pipeline of upcoming missions, including commercial Earth observation, government and defense payloads, and hypersonic technology development, ensuring sustained growth in the aerospace sector.
- Technology Testing: The 'Celeste' satellites will test how a low Earth orbit constellation can complement the Galileo constellation in medium Earth orbit, aimed at enhancing Europe's positioning capabilities and advancing technologies for autonomous vehicles, maritime navigation, and critical infrastructure projects.
See More
Rocket Lab Secures $190 Million HASTE Contract
- Historic Contract: On March 23, Rocket Lab secured a $190 million HASTE launch contract, marking the largest launch contract in the company's history and indicating a significant expansion in its defense sector presence, which is expected to enhance its market position.
- Increased Launch Backlog: This contract brings Rocket Lab's total launch backlog to over 70, showcasing its robust capabilities in rapid response and high-frequency launches, further solidifying its position as the small launch vehicle of choice.
- Defense Collaboration: The contract supports the U.S. Department of Defense's initiative to accelerate hypersonic flight testing over a four-year period, highlighting Rocket Lab's technological capabilities and the strong growth in market demand within the defense sector.
- Maintained Success Rate: Rocket Lab boasts a 100% mission success rate across all HASTE launches and has already sold 28 new launches in Q1 2026, nearly matching last year's total, reflecting its critical role in commercial, civil, and defense missions.
See More
SpaceX IPO Sparks Surge in Space Stocks
- SpaceX IPO Outlook: SpaceX is preparing to file its IPO prospectus, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history by raising $75 billion and achieving a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which may make other space companies appear cheaper and attract investor interest.
- AST SpaceMobile Reaction: Following the SpaceX news, AST SpaceMobile's stock surged by 10.4%, but it subsequently fell by 8.5% on Thursday, indicating investor concerns over its valuation at 325 times sales amidst a lack of earnings.
- Rocket Lab Performance: Rocket Lab's stock also rose by 10.3% due to the SpaceX announcement but dropped 9.5% afterward; despite its consistent revenue growth and potential profitability next year, its valuation at nearly 60 times sales remains high.
- Investor Caution: While the SpaceX IPO prospect has generated market excitement, investors are showing caution towards the high valuations of AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, reflecting uncertainties about the future of the space industry.
See More
SpaceX Set to File IPO, Anticipated to Raise $75 Billion
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX is expected to file its IPO prospectus within days, aiming to raise $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially overshadowing other space companies.
- Market Reaction: The news of SpaceX's IPO sparked investor enthusiasm, with AST SpaceMobile shares rising 10.4% and Rocket Lab increasing by 10.3%, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the aerospace sector.
- Price Volatility: However, the following trading day saw AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab stocks drop 8.5% and 9.5%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and rapid shifts in market sentiment.
- Investment Advice: While Rocket Lab shows stable revenue growth and is expected to be profitable next year, its stock trades at nearly 60 times sales, prompting investors to carefully assess their buying decisions to avoid entering at inflated prices.
See More
Starfighters Partners with Blackstar for Hypersonic Flight Testing
- Strategic Partnership: Starfighters Space has signed a Technical Interchange Agreement with Blackstar Orbital to advance flight testing of reusable hypersonic 'SpaceDrone' systems, with captive carry tests expected in Q4 FY26, marking a critical transition from simulation to real-world flight testing that could propel the development of a new class of reusable satellites.
- Flight Testing Initiative: This collaboration will utilize Starfighters' F-104 supersonic aircraft for manned flight tests, culminating in a high-altitude supersonic release that models the reentry flight trajectory of Blackstar's 'microshuttle' platform, further validating its performance in real-world conditions.
- Innovative Technical Interface: Starfighters has provided a specialized BL75 pylon as the structural interface between the F-104 and the SpaceDrone, enabling phased captive carry and eventual release testing, thereby enhancing its technical capabilities in the aerospace sector.
- Expanding Market Potential: With the U.S. Space Force budget reaching $40 billion, hypersonic testing and reusable space systems are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the aerospace and defense market, and this partnership will further solidify Starfighters' position in this rapidly evolving landscape.
See More
Starfighters Space Partners with Blackstar Orbital for Hypersonic Testing
- Strategic Partnership: Starfighters Space has signed a Technical Interchange Agreement with Blackstar Orbital to advance flight testing of next-generation reusable hypersonic space systems, with captive carry flights expected in Q4 FY26, marking a significant innovation milestone in aerospace.
- Integration Advantage: By integrating Blackstar's SpaceDrone with its F-104 supersonic aircraft platform, Starfighters not only enhances testing efficiency but also provides a high-performance environment for validating future aerospace systems, further solidifying its leadership in the aerospace defense market.
- Market Potential: With the U.S. Space Force's budget reaching $40 billion this year and the Pentagon shifting decisively towards commercial solutions, this partnership positions Starfighters as a critical player in the rapidly growing hypersonic weapons development sector, attracting increased capital investment.
- Diversified Development Strategy: This collaboration complements Starfighters' operational expansion at Midland International Air & Space Port in Texas, showcasing the company's strategic positioning across multiple domains, including microgravity flight and hypersonic testing, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
See More
Rocket Lab Completes First Dedicated Mission for ESA
- Successful Launch: Rocket Lab successfully launched the 'Daughter Of The Stars' mission on March 28, highlighting the increasing importance of its Electron rocket in providing commercial launch services for government space programs, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the aerospace market.
- Mission Details: The launch took place from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand, successfully deploying the European Space Agency's 'Celeste' payload into low Earth orbit at an altitude of 510 km, demonstrating Rocket Lab's capabilities in precision launches.
- Future Plans: Rocket Lab has a full pipeline of upcoming missions, including commercial Earth observation, government and defense payloads, and hypersonic technology development, ensuring sustained growth in the aerospace sector.
- Technology Testing: The 'Celeste' satellites will test how a low Earth orbit constellation can complement the Galileo constellation in medium Earth orbit, aimed at enhancing Europe's positioning capabilities and advancing technologies for autonomous vehicles, maritime navigation, and critical infrastructure projects.
See More
