Imperial Oil intends to increase its capital budget for 2026.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 15 2025
0mins
Should l Buy IMO?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Capital Expenditures: Imperial Oil is budgeting C$2 billion-C$2.2 billion for capital and exploration expenditures in 2026, an increase from the current year's C$1.9 billion-C$2.1 billion range.
Production Forecast: The company anticipates upstream production of 441,000-460,000 gross boe/day in 2026, slightly higher than the 433,000-456,000 boe/day expected for this year, driven by reliability improvements and growth at Kearl and Cold Lake.
Refinery Throughput: Refinery throughput is projected to be 395,000-405,000 bbl/day, a decrease from the 2025 guidance of 405,000-415,000 bbl/day, with a capacity utilization rate of 91%-93%.
Turnarounds Planned: Imperial Oil plans to conduct turnarounds at Cold Lake, Syncrude, and Kearl, extending the turnaround interval at the K1 plant from two years to four years after achieving a record run length of 10 years.
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Analyst Views on IMO
Wall Street analysts forecast IMO stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
5 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 116.350
Low
67.67
Averages
82.50
High
100.78
Current: 116.350
Low
67.67
Averages
82.50
High
100.78
About IMO
Imperial Oil Limited is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission business opportunities including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Its segments include Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment is organized and operates to explore for and produce crude oil and its equivalent, and natural gas. The Downstream segment is organized and operates to refine crude oil into petroleum products and to distribute and market these products. The Chemical segment is organized and operates to manufacture and market hydrocarbon-based chemicals and chemical products. The Company's operations include Cold Lake, Kearl, Syncrude, Nanticoke, Sarnia and Strathcona refinery.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Imperial Oil Reports Significant Drop in Q4 Net Income
- Net Income Plunge: Imperial Oil's Q4 net income fell to C$492 million or C$1.00 per share, down significantly from C$1.23 billion or C$2.37 per share in the prior year, indicating market pressures and declining profitability.
- Adjusted Earnings Decline: Excluding special items, adjusted earnings per share dropped to C$1.97 from C$2.37 a year ago, highlighting challenges in cost control and profitability.
- Revenue Decrease: Total revenues and other income for the quarter decreased to C$11.28 billion from C$12.61 billion last year, missing analysts' expectations of C$12.00 billion, reflecting weak market demand.
- Dividend Increase: The company declared a 20% increase in its quarterly dividend to C$0.87 per share, payable on April 1, 2026, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns despite declining profitability.
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- Production Capacity Growth: The quarterly upstream production reached 444,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day, marking the highest annual production of 438,000 barrels per day in over 30 years, showcasing significant advancements in resource development and production efficiency that enhance market competitiveness.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The company returned C$2.072 billion to shareholders in the quarter, including C$361 million in dividend payments and C$1.711 billion in share repurchases, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder value and effective cash flow management.
- Dividend Growth: The quarterly dividend increased by 20% from 72 cents to 87 cents per share, which not only boosts investor confidence but may also attract more long-term investors, further solidifying the company's capital structure.
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- Expectation Adjustment Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward and one downward revision, indicating some divergence in market perceptions of the company's future performance, which could affect stock price volatility.
- Cost Reduction Target: Imperial Oil aims to achieve an annual expense reduction of $150 million by 2028 through restructuring, a strategic move designed to enhance operational efficiency and strengthen its long-term sustainability in a competitive energy market.
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- Webcast Availability: The call will be accessible via webcast, with registration available on the company’s website, and the recording will be stored for one year, enhancing information transparency for stakeholders.
- Technical Issue Response: In case of EDGAR system failures, Imperial Oil plans to release financial information through its website or Canada’s SEDAR+ system, ensuring investors can access the latest financial data under any circumstances, thereby reinforcing the company's accountability to its investors.
- Industry Leadership: As Canada’s largest petroleum refiner, Imperial Oil continues to lead the industry in technology and innovation, committed to high standards in energy resource development, showcasing its strong competitive position and commitment to sustainable growth in the energy market.
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- Net Income Plunge: Imperial Oil's Q4 net income fell to C$492 million or C$1.00 per share, down significantly from C$1.23 billion or C$2.37 per share in the prior year, indicating market pressures and declining profitability.
- Adjusted Earnings Decline: Excluding special items, adjusted earnings per share dropped to C$1.97 from C$2.37 a year ago, highlighting challenges in cost control and profitability.
- Revenue Decrease: Total revenues and other income for the quarter decreased to C$11.28 billion from C$12.61 billion last year, missing analysts' expectations of C$12.00 billion, reflecting weak market demand.
- Dividend Increase: The company declared a 20% increase in its quarterly dividend to C$0.87 per share, payable on April 1, 2026, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns despite declining profitability.
See More
Imperial Oil Reports Strong Q4 Earnings and Production Milestones
- Earnings Performance: Imperial Oil reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of C$1.97, despite a 10.5% year-over-year revenue decline to C$11.28 billion, indicating resilience in profitability amidst market fluctuations and reflecting operational stability.
- Production Capacity Growth: The quarterly upstream production reached 444,000 gross oil-equivalent barrels per day, marking the highest annual production of 438,000 barrels per day in over 30 years, showcasing significant advancements in resource development and production efficiency that enhance market competitiveness.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The company returned C$2.072 billion to shareholders in the quarter, including C$361 million in dividend payments and C$1.711 billion in share repurchases, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder value and effective cash flow management.
- Dividend Growth: The quarterly dividend increased by 20% from 72 cents to 87 cents per share, which not only boosts investor confidence but may also attract more long-term investors, further solidifying the company's capital structure.
See More
Imperial Oil to Announce Q4 Earnings on January 30
- Earnings Announcement Date: Imperial Oil is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on January 30 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.38 and revenue at $8.76 billion, reflecting a 30.5% year-over-year decline, which may impact investor expectations regarding the company's future performance.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past year, Imperial Oil has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating strong market performance and profitability, potentially boosting investor confidence.
- Expectation Adjustment Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward and one downward revision, indicating some divergence in market perceptions of the company's future performance, which could affect stock price volatility.
- Cost Reduction Target: Imperial Oil aims to achieve an annual expense reduction of $150 million by 2028 through restructuring, a strategic move designed to enhance operational efficiency and strengthen its long-term sustainability in a competitive energy market.
See More
U.S. Stocks Face Second Week of Losses, Nasdaq Dips 0.1%
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 index barely rose 0.03% this week but fell 0.4% overall, indicating investors' insufficient capacity to digest geopolitical news, leaving market sentiment unsettled.
- Natural Gas Surge: Natural gas futures spiked 75% over five trading days due to Winter Storm Fern, reflecting the impact of extreme weather on energy demand and potentially raising profit expectations for related companies.
- Dollar Depreciation Trend: Over the past five days, the EUR/USD rose nearly 2%, while the dollar fell over 2.7% against the Swiss franc, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from the dollar, which may affect future forex market dynamics.
- Fed Policy Expectations: The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range at next week's meeting, with investors closely watching Trump's nomination for the new Fed chair, which could influence future monetary policy direction.
See More
Imperial Oil to Host 2025 Q4 Earnings Call on January 30
- Earnings Call Schedule: Imperial Oil will host its Q4 2025 earnings call on January 30 at 9 a.m. MT, releasing its earnings report and facilitating analyst questions to ensure timely financial information for investors.
- Webcast Availability: The call will be accessible via webcast, with registration available on the company’s website, and the recording will be stored for one year, enhancing information transparency for stakeholders.
- Technical Issue Response: In case of EDGAR system failures, Imperial Oil plans to release financial information through its website or Canada’s SEDAR+ system, ensuring investors can access the latest financial data under any circumstances, thereby reinforcing the company's accountability to its investors.
- Industry Leadership: As Canada’s largest petroleum refiner, Imperial Oil continues to lead the industry in technology and innovation, committed to high standards in energy resource development, showcasing its strong competitive position and commitment to sustainable growth in the energy market.
See More
Stocks Have Overlooked Geopolitical Issues, But Trump's Actions in Venezuela Shift the Landscape.
Geopolitical Impact: The U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signifies a significant shift in President Trump's foreign policy ambitions, particularly regarding Venezuela.
Oil's Central Role: Oil is a crucial element in Trump's strategy to influence global dynamics and reshape international relations.
See More
