Should I Buy IMO? IMO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

105.710

1 Day change

2.16%

52 Week Range

106.640

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 to invest. While the stock has shown recent price momentum and bullish technical indicators, the overbought RSI, declining financial performance, and mixed analyst sentiment suggest limited upside potential in the near term. A 'hold' recommendation is appropriate until more favorable entry conditions or catalysts emerge.

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bullish momentum with MACD above zero and positively expanding, RSI at 85.908 indicating overbought conditions, and bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The stock is trading near resistance levels (R1: 105.17, R2: 107.775), suggesting limited short-term upside.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Consistent EPS and revenue beats over the past year.
Restructuring efforts to reduce annual expenses by $150 million by
SwingMax entry signal on 2026-01-02 with an 18.94% price change since then.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Declining financial performance in Q3 2025 with revenue down -9.24% YoY, net income down -56.43% YoY, and EPS down -54.08% YoY.
Overbought RSI indicating potential short-term pullback.
Mixed analyst sentiment with multiple price target reductions and downgrades.
Stock trend analysis predicts a potential decline of -7.22% in the next month.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, Imperial Oil reported a revenue decline of -9.24% YoY to $11.99 billion, net income dropped -56.43% YoY to $539 million, and EPS decreased -54.08% YoY to $1.07. Gross margin also declined to 14.02%, down -24.54% YoY.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed to negative. Recent downgrades and price target reductions include Morgan Stanley lowering the target to C$98, JPMorgan to C$99, and TD Securities to C$106 with a Sell rating. Analysts cite limited near-term upside, valuation concerns, and preference for U.S. oil majors over Canadian integrateds.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast IMO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IMO is 82.5 USD with a low forecast of 67.67 USD and a high forecast of 100.78 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

5 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 103.470

Low

67.67

Averages

82.5

High

100.78

Current: 103.470

Low

67.67

Averages

82.5

High

100.78

Morgan Stanley

Devin McDermott

Equal Weight

downgrade

$101 -> $98

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Devin McDermott

Price Target

$101 -> $98

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott lowered the firm's price target on Imperial Oil to C$98 from C$101 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.

JPMorgan

Underweight

downgrade

$110 -> $99

2026-01-20

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$110 -> $99

2026-01-20

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Imperial Oil to C$99 from C$110 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the integrated oils sector as part of its 2026 outlook. The outlook for the group continues to shaped by supply side risks for oil, but a more constructive outlook downstream, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Amid the rise in geopolitical risks, JPMorgan says the U.S. majors screen more attractive than the Canadian integrateds. It cites relative valuations for the rating changes.

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IMO Should I Buy

IMO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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