How Low Can Sunrun Stock Go?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 15 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Sunrun's Market Challenges: Sunrun, the largest residential solar installer in the U.S., faces significant challenges due to policy changes, financial pressures, and market conditions, leading to a 36% drop in its stock value over the past year and concerns about future profitability amid expiring tax credits and rising costs.
Investment Considerations: The company's historical volatility and underperformance during market downturns raise questions for investors about holding onto Sunrun stock, especially as it trades below its average price-to-sales ratio while still being valued as a growth company amidst uncertain economic conditions.
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Analyst Views on RUN
Wall Street analysts forecast RUN stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 18.200
Low
19.00
Averages
23.53
High
30.00
Current: 18.200
Low
19.00
Averages
23.53
High
30.00
About RUN
Sunrun Inc. is a provider of clean energy as a subscription service. It is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership and maintenance of residential solar energy systems (Projects) in the United States. It provides clean, solar energy typically at savings compared to traditional utility energy. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. It also offers battery storage along with solar energy systems to its customers in select markets and sells its services to certain commercial developers through its multi-family and new homes offerings. It installs solar energy systems on its customers’ homes and provides them with the solar power produced by those systems for typically a 20- or 25-year initial term. It monitors, maintains and insures the system during the term of the contract. It also provides electric vehicle (EV) chargers, battery retrofits, re-powered or expanding systems, home energy management services, and other home electrification products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of Sunrun Inc. Options Trading
- Options Selling Risk: Selling put options does not provide investors with the upside potential of owning shares, as they only acquire shares if the contract is exercised; unless Sunrun Inc. shares fall 58.6%, the seller only benefits from a 9.4% annualized return.
- Cost Basis Calculation: If the contract is exercised, the cost basis would be $6.55 per share, calculated by subtracting the $1.45 premium from the $8 strike price, indicating that the potential profit for the put seller is limited by market performance.
- Volatility Analysis: Sunrun Inc.'s trailing twelve-month volatility is 118%, and analyzing this alongside historical trading data and fundamental analysis can help assess whether selling the January 2028 put at the $8 strike is worthwhile.
- Market Sentiment Indicator: In mid-afternoon trading on Friday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 1.33 million contracts, equal to call volume, indicating a higher demand for puts than the long-term median expectation of 0.65.
See More
Sunrun Customer Participation Surges Fivefold
- Surge in Customer Participation: Sunrun reported that customer participation in its distributed power plant programs for 2025 exceeded 106,000, increasing nearly fivefold from last year, indicating strong demand for home battery storage and solar solutions, thereby solidifying its market position.
- Enhanced Dispatchable Capacity: The company expects to have 10 gigawatt-hours of dispatchable capacity online by the end of 2028, with recent dispatches of 18 gigawatt-hours capable of powering 15 million homes for one hour, showcasing its ability to meet surging electricity demand.
- Strong Stock Performance: Sunrun's shares jumped over 12% on Wednesday, marking its best session in nearly four months, reflecting investor optimism about the company's power plant programs, with the stock up nearly 13% year-to-date.
- Rising Market Demand: As electricity demand driven by AI and extreme weather increases, Sunrun's 17 programs leverage 217,000 home battery systems to support the grid during critical hours, effectively reducing energy costs for all ratepayers.
See More
Enphase Shares Jump 24% Post-Earnings as Optimism Grows for Solar Industry.
- Earnings Report: Enphase Energy's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue exceeded expectations.
- Stock Performance: The positive earnings report led to a significant boost in Enphase Energy's stock price.
See More
Sunrun to Release Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings on February 26
- Earnings Release Schedule: Sunrun announced it will issue its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings report after market close on February 26, 2026, which is expected to provide investors with critical financial performance data to assess the company's operational status.
- Conference Call Details: The company will hold a conference call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time to discuss the earnings results, allowing investors to participate by dialing (877) 407-5989 or (201) 689-8434, enhancing interaction and transparency with stakeholders.
- Audio Replay Service: An audio replay of the call will be available on the Sunrun Investor Relations website for approximately one month following the meeting, ensuring that investors who cannot attend live can access important information, thereby improving information accessibility.
- Company Background: Sunrun is the largest provider of home battery storage and solar solutions in the U.S., utilizing a no-upfront-cost subscription model that empowers customers with greater energy control and independence, showcasing its leadership in the renewable energy sector.
See More
Surging U.S. Electricity Demand Fuels Virtual Power Plant Growth
- Surging Electricity Demand: U.S. electricity demand is surging due to electric vehicles, data centers, and extreme temperatures, leading to increased reliance on variable wind and solar power as traditional coal and gas plants retire faster than replacements can be built.
- Rise of Virtual Power Plants: Utilities are deploying Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) that utilize thousands of small energy resources, including smart thermostats and home batteries, to create a cloud-based network that enhances grid flexibility and reliability during peak demand periods.
- National Grid's Growth Potential: National Grid's ConnectedSolutions program, launched in under four months, now boasts 250 megawatts of peak shaving capacity, with a reported underlying profit of £2.29 billion (approximately $3.1 billion), reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase and highlighting its strong performance amid rising energy demands.
- Sunrun's Market Opportunities: As the largest home-to-grid distributed power plant operator in the U.S., Sunrun's stock has surged over 100% in the past year, reporting $725 million in revenue for Q3, a 35% year-over-year increase, and partnering with HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to finance an additional 300 megawatts of capacity, further solidifying its market position.
See More
National Grid and Sunrun's Virtual Power Plant Advantages
- Surging Market Demand: U.S. electricity demand is soaring due to electric vehicles, data centers, and extreme temperatures, prompting utilities to adopt virtual power plants (VPPs) to ensure grid stability as traditional coal and gas plants retire rapidly.
- National Grid's Performance Growth: National Grid's stock has risen nearly 40% over the past year, reporting an underlying profit of £2.29 billion, up 12% year-over-year in its half-year report, reflecting successful implementation in the VPP sector amid strong market demand.
- Sunrun's Expansion Plans: As the largest home-to-grid distributed power plant operator in the U.S., Sunrun has enrolled 106,000 customers in 17 VPP programs and collaborated with three utilities to provide a 500-megawatt VPP, aimed at preventing rolling blackouts during peak times.
- Future Investment Potential: With solar power's share in the U.S. rising from 1% to 8% over the past 15 years, Sunrun's partnership with HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital is expected to finance an additional 300 megawatts of capacity, further solidifying its market position and driving future growth.
See More
Analysis of Sunrun Inc. Options Trading
- Options Selling Risk: Selling put options does not provide investors with the upside potential of owning shares, as they only acquire shares if the contract is exercised; unless Sunrun Inc. shares fall 58.6%, the seller only benefits from a 9.4% annualized return.
- Cost Basis Calculation: If the contract is exercised, the cost basis would be $6.55 per share, calculated by subtracting the $1.45 premium from the $8 strike price, indicating that the potential profit for the put seller is limited by market performance.
- Volatility Analysis: Sunrun Inc.'s trailing twelve-month volatility is 118%, and analyzing this alongside historical trading data and fundamental analysis can help assess whether selling the January 2028 put at the $8 strike is worthwhile.
- Market Sentiment Indicator: In mid-afternoon trading on Friday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 1.33 million contracts, equal to call volume, indicating a higher demand for puts than the long-term median expectation of 0.65.
See More
Sunrun Customer Participation Surges Fivefold
- Surge in Customer Participation: Sunrun reported that customer participation in its distributed power plant programs for 2025 exceeded 106,000, increasing nearly fivefold from last year, indicating strong demand for home battery storage and solar solutions, thereby solidifying its market position.
- Enhanced Dispatchable Capacity: The company expects to have 10 gigawatt-hours of dispatchable capacity online by the end of 2028, with recent dispatches of 18 gigawatt-hours capable of powering 15 million homes for one hour, showcasing its ability to meet surging electricity demand.
- Strong Stock Performance: Sunrun's shares jumped over 12% on Wednesday, marking its best session in nearly four months, reflecting investor optimism about the company's power plant programs, with the stock up nearly 13% year-to-date.
- Rising Market Demand: As electricity demand driven by AI and extreme weather increases, Sunrun's 17 programs leverage 217,000 home battery systems to support the grid during critical hours, effectively reducing energy costs for all ratepayers.
See More
Enphase Shares Jump 24% Post-Earnings as Optimism Grows for Solar Industry.
- Earnings Report: Enphase Energy's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue exceeded expectations.
- Stock Performance: The positive earnings report led to a significant boost in Enphase Energy's stock price.
See More
Sunrun to Release Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings on February 26
- Earnings Release Schedule: Sunrun announced it will issue its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings report after market close on February 26, 2026, which is expected to provide investors with critical financial performance data to assess the company's operational status.
- Conference Call Details: The company will hold a conference call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time to discuss the earnings results, allowing investors to participate by dialing (877) 407-5989 or (201) 689-8434, enhancing interaction and transparency with stakeholders.
- Audio Replay Service: An audio replay of the call will be available on the Sunrun Investor Relations website for approximately one month following the meeting, ensuring that investors who cannot attend live can access important information, thereby improving information accessibility.
- Company Background: Sunrun is the largest provider of home battery storage and solar solutions in the U.S., utilizing a no-upfront-cost subscription model that empowers customers with greater energy control and independence, showcasing its leadership in the renewable energy sector.
See More
Surging U.S. Electricity Demand Fuels Virtual Power Plant Growth
- Surging Electricity Demand: U.S. electricity demand is surging due to electric vehicles, data centers, and extreme temperatures, leading to increased reliance on variable wind and solar power as traditional coal and gas plants retire faster than replacements can be built.
- Rise of Virtual Power Plants: Utilities are deploying Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) that utilize thousands of small energy resources, including smart thermostats and home batteries, to create a cloud-based network that enhances grid flexibility and reliability during peak demand periods.
- National Grid's Growth Potential: National Grid's ConnectedSolutions program, launched in under four months, now boasts 250 megawatts of peak shaving capacity, with a reported underlying profit of £2.29 billion (approximately $3.1 billion), reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase and highlighting its strong performance amid rising energy demands.
- Sunrun's Market Opportunities: As the largest home-to-grid distributed power plant operator in the U.S., Sunrun's stock has surged over 100% in the past year, reporting $725 million in revenue for Q3, a 35% year-over-year increase, and partnering with HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to finance an additional 300 megawatts of capacity, further solidifying its market position.
See More
National Grid and Sunrun's Virtual Power Plant Advantages
- Surging Market Demand: U.S. electricity demand is soaring due to electric vehicles, data centers, and extreme temperatures, prompting utilities to adopt virtual power plants (VPPs) to ensure grid stability as traditional coal and gas plants retire rapidly.
- National Grid's Performance Growth: National Grid's stock has risen nearly 40% over the past year, reporting an underlying profit of £2.29 billion, up 12% year-over-year in its half-year report, reflecting successful implementation in the VPP sector amid strong market demand.
- Sunrun's Expansion Plans: As the largest home-to-grid distributed power plant operator in the U.S., Sunrun has enrolled 106,000 customers in 17 VPP programs and collaborated with three utilities to provide a 500-megawatt VPP, aimed at preventing rolling blackouts during peak times.
- Future Investment Potential: With solar power's share in the U.S. rising from 1% to 8% over the past 15 years, Sunrun's partnership with HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital is expected to finance an additional 300 megawatts of capacity, further solidifying its market position and driving future growth.
See More
