Harley-Davidson Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 10 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HOG?
Source: seekingalpha
- Sales and Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue for Q4, totaling $4.5 billion, primarily driven by a 10% drop in HDMC revenue and a staggering 59% decrease in HDFS revenue, indicating significant market pressures.
- Inventory Management Challenges: While North American retail sales grew by 5%, dealer inventory fell by 17% year-over-year, failing to fully alleviate high inventory issues, leading management to express caution regarding future profitability and cost control.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Management anticipates achieving at least $150 million in annual savings starting in 2027, aimed at improving financial health through operational optimization and cost reduction, although short-term profit pressures remain a concern.
- 2026 Outlook: Management views 2026 as a transition year, forecasting operating income between $10 million and a loss of $40 million, while facing new tariff costs estimated between $75 million and $105 million, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
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Analyst Views on HOG
Wall Street analysts forecast HOG stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.770
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
Current: 18.770
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
About HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Company operates through three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The HDMC segment designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles. The HDMC segment also sells motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel as well as licenses its trademarks. The HDMC segment conducts business on a global basis, with sales in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids, parts and accessories and apparel in the United States and certain international markets. The HDFS segment is engaged in the business of financing and servicing wholesale inventory receivables and retail consumer loans, primarily for the purchase of Harley-Davidson and LiveWire motorcycles.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Harley-Davidson Reports Revenue Decline Amid Insider Buying
- Insider Buying: CEO Artie Starrs purchased 15,000 shares at $19.10 each, while director Lori Ann Flees bought 4,000 shares at $18.89, indicating executive confidence in the company despite ongoing financial challenges.
- Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year revenue decline in Q4, with a 10% drop in retail and a staggering 59% decrease in its financing segment, highlighting significant competitive pressures in the market.
- Sales Forecast: The company anticipates motorcycle retail sales between 130,000 and 135,000 units for 2026, slightly down from 132,535 in 2025, reflecting uncertainty in market demand.
- Stock Price Movement: Harley-Davidson shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading to $19.03, although Morgan Stanley cautioned that stock prices may struggle to rebound until demand and margins stabilize.
See More
Harley-Davidson CEO Makes Significant Insider Purchase
- Insider Buying Signal: Harley-Davidson CEO Artie Starrs purchased $286,500 worth of company stock over the past six months at an average cost of $19.10 per share, indicating strong confidence in the company's future and suggesting potential undervaluation.
- Market Trading Dynamics: On Tuesday, Harley-Davidson shares traded as low as $18.97, below Starrs' purchase price, reflecting rising market interest and a 1.5% increase in stock price, which indicates growing investor optimism.
- Price Volatility Analysis: The 52-week price range for Harley-Davidson is $17.11 to $31.25, with the current trading price at $18.93, suggesting the stock is hovering near its low point, potentially providing a buying opportunity while reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding future performance.
- Dividend Yield: Harley-Davidson currently pays an annual dividend of $0.75 per share, distributed quarterly, with the most recent ex-dividend date on March 2, 2026, offering an approximate 4.0% annualized yield that may attract income-seeking investors and enhance the stock's appeal.
See More
UBS Lowers Harley-Davidson Inc. Target Price from $27 to $19
- Stock Price Adjustment: Harley-Davidson has cut its target price from $27 to $19.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in market conditions and company performance expectations.
See More
Harley-Davidson to Present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference
- Conference Participation: Harley-Davidson will present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference on March 10, 2026, at the JW Marriott Miami Turnberry Resort, showcasing its leadership in the motorcycle industry.
- Investor Engagement: Investor Relations Director Shawn Collins will conduct one-on-one and group sessions to address questions related to the company, aiming to bolster investor confidence in Harley-Davidson's future growth.
- Company Background: Since its founding in 1903, Harley-Davidson has been dedicated to shaping motorcycle culture through innovation and emotion, offering distinctive and customizable motorcycles and related products, solidifying its position as the most desirable motorcycle brand globally.
- Electric Motorcycle Development: Harley-Davidson's controlling interest in LiveWire Group, the first publicly traded all-electric motorcycle company in the U.S., highlights the company's forward-looking strategy to become the most desirable electric motorcycle brand, reflecting its commitment to the electric transportation sector.
See More
Harley-Davidson to Present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference
- Conference Participation: Harley-Davidson will present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference on March 10, 2026, at the JW Marriott Miami Turnberry Resort & Spa, where Investor Relations Director Shawn Collins will engage in one-on-one and group sessions to enhance investor understanding and confidence in the company.
- Company Background: Since its founding in 1903, Harley-Davidson has led the motorcycle industry through innovation and emotion, offering distinctive and customizable motorcycles and accessories, thereby reinforcing its position as the most desirable motorcycle brand globally and driving long-term brand development.
- Electric Motorcycle Strategy: Harley-Davidson holds a controlling interest in LiveWire Group, the first publicly traded all-electric motorcycle manufacturer in the U.S., with LiveWire aiming to become the most desirable electric motorcycle brand, showcasing Harley's forward-looking approach in the electric transportation sector aligned with urban adventure trends.
- Brand Vision: Harley-Davidson's vision emphasizes building its legend through continuous innovation and evolution, transcending mere machine manufacturing to embody the timeless pursuit of adventure, reflecting the brand's profound impact on motorcycle culture and its commitment to consumer emotions.
See More
Congressional Trading Activity Insights
- Small-Cap Focus: Congressman Tim Moore has made multiple trades in 2025, including purchasing shares of Genprex, a gene therapy company with a market cap of $5.2 million, indicating a continued interest in small-cap stocks that may influence investor confidence in this sector.
- Significant Trade Amounts: Moore's three purchases of Genprex totaled between $31,000 and $115,000, reflecting his optimism about the company despite its recent poor performance, which could attract the attention of other investors.
- Investment in Simply Good Foods: Moore also bought shares of Simply Good Foods, with investments ranging from $30,000 to $100,000, despite the company's stock price dropping 53% over the past 52 weeks, highlighting the potential for high-risk investments.
- Outstanding Trading Performance: Moore was recognized as the top-performing member of Congress for stock trades in 2025, achieving a 52% return that significantly outperformed the S&P 500's 16.6% gain, which may draw more investors to his trading strategies.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports Revenue Decline Amid Insider Buying
- Insider Buying: CEO Artie Starrs purchased 15,000 shares at $19.10 each, while director Lori Ann Flees bought 4,000 shares at $18.89, indicating executive confidence in the company despite ongoing financial challenges.
- Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year revenue decline in Q4, with a 10% drop in retail and a staggering 59% decrease in its financing segment, highlighting significant competitive pressures in the market.
- Sales Forecast: The company anticipates motorcycle retail sales between 130,000 and 135,000 units for 2026, slightly down from 132,535 in 2025, reflecting uncertainty in market demand.
- Stock Price Movement: Harley-Davidson shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading to $19.03, although Morgan Stanley cautioned that stock prices may struggle to rebound until demand and margins stabilize.
See More
Harley-Davidson CEO Makes Significant Insider Purchase
- Insider Buying Signal: Harley-Davidson CEO Artie Starrs purchased $286,500 worth of company stock over the past six months at an average cost of $19.10 per share, indicating strong confidence in the company's future and suggesting potential undervaluation.
- Market Trading Dynamics: On Tuesday, Harley-Davidson shares traded as low as $18.97, below Starrs' purchase price, reflecting rising market interest and a 1.5% increase in stock price, which indicates growing investor optimism.
- Price Volatility Analysis: The 52-week price range for Harley-Davidson is $17.11 to $31.25, with the current trading price at $18.93, suggesting the stock is hovering near its low point, potentially providing a buying opportunity while reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding future performance.
- Dividend Yield: Harley-Davidson currently pays an annual dividend of $0.75 per share, distributed quarterly, with the most recent ex-dividend date on March 2, 2026, offering an approximate 4.0% annualized yield that may attract income-seeking investors and enhance the stock's appeal.
See More
UBS Lowers Harley-Davidson Inc. Target Price from $27 to $19
- Stock Price Adjustment: Harley-Davidson has cut its target price from $27 to $19.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in market conditions and company performance expectations.
See More
Harley-Davidson to Present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference
- Conference Participation: Harley-Davidson will present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference on March 10, 2026, at the JW Marriott Miami Turnberry Resort, showcasing its leadership in the motorcycle industry.
- Investor Engagement: Investor Relations Director Shawn Collins will conduct one-on-one and group sessions to address questions related to the company, aiming to bolster investor confidence in Harley-Davidson's future growth.
- Company Background: Since its founding in 1903, Harley-Davidson has been dedicated to shaping motorcycle culture through innovation and emotion, offering distinctive and customizable motorcycles and related products, solidifying its position as the most desirable motorcycle brand globally.
- Electric Motorcycle Development: Harley-Davidson's controlling interest in LiveWire Group, the first publicly traded all-electric motorcycle company in the U.S., highlights the company's forward-looking strategy to become the most desirable electric motorcycle brand, reflecting its commitment to the electric transportation sector.
See More
Harley-Davidson to Present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference
- Conference Participation: Harley-Davidson will present at Citi's 2026 Global Consumer & Retail Conference on March 10, 2026, at the JW Marriott Miami Turnberry Resort & Spa, where Investor Relations Director Shawn Collins will engage in one-on-one and group sessions to enhance investor understanding and confidence in the company.
- Company Background: Since its founding in 1903, Harley-Davidson has led the motorcycle industry through innovation and emotion, offering distinctive and customizable motorcycles and accessories, thereby reinforcing its position as the most desirable motorcycle brand globally and driving long-term brand development.
- Electric Motorcycle Strategy: Harley-Davidson holds a controlling interest in LiveWire Group, the first publicly traded all-electric motorcycle manufacturer in the U.S., with LiveWire aiming to become the most desirable electric motorcycle brand, showcasing Harley's forward-looking approach in the electric transportation sector aligned with urban adventure trends.
- Brand Vision: Harley-Davidson's vision emphasizes building its legend through continuous innovation and evolution, transcending mere machine manufacturing to embody the timeless pursuit of adventure, reflecting the brand's profound impact on motorcycle culture and its commitment to consumer emotions.
See More
Congressional Trading Activity Insights
- Small-Cap Focus: Congressman Tim Moore has made multiple trades in 2025, including purchasing shares of Genprex, a gene therapy company with a market cap of $5.2 million, indicating a continued interest in small-cap stocks that may influence investor confidence in this sector.
- Significant Trade Amounts: Moore's three purchases of Genprex totaled between $31,000 and $115,000, reflecting his optimism about the company despite its recent poor performance, which could attract the attention of other investors.
- Investment in Simply Good Foods: Moore also bought shares of Simply Good Foods, with investments ranging from $30,000 to $100,000, despite the company's stock price dropping 53% over the past 52 weeks, highlighting the potential for high-risk investments.
- Outstanding Trading Performance: Moore was recognized as the top-performing member of Congress for stock trades in 2025, achieving a 52% return that significantly outperformed the S&P 500's 16.6% gain, which may draw more investors to his trading strategies.
See More
