FedEx Shares Slip After Fiscal Q4 Earnings: ETFs in Focus
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy FDX?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
FedEx Earnings Report: FedEx reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, exceeding earnings and revenue estimates, but provided a cautious outlook that led to a more than 5% drop in shares after market close. The company achieved its $4 billion cost-cutting goal and plans to cut an additional $1 billion in the upcoming fiscal year.
Impact on ETFs: The disappointing outlook from FedEx is expected to affect several ETFs with significant allocations to the company, including ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF, iShares U.S. Transportation ETF, First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF, and Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF, which all have varying degrees of exposure to FedEx's performance.
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Analyst Views on FDX
Wall Street analysts forecast FDX stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 385.950
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
Current: 385.950
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
About FDX
FedEx Corporation provides customers and businesses with a portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services. The Company offers integrated business solutions utilizing its flexible and efficient global network. Its segments include Federal Express, FedEx Freight, and Corporate, other, and eliminations. Federal Express segment includes express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation, and it also operates combined sales, marketing, administrative, and information-technology functions in shared service operations for United States customers. FedEx Freight segment includes FedEx Freight (LTL freight transportation) and FedEx Custom Critical (time-critical transportation). Corporate, other, and elimination segments include FedEx Dataworks, Inc. (FedEx Dataworks), FedEx Office and Print Services, Inc. (FedEx Office), and FedEx Logistics, Inc. (FedEx Logistics). FedEx Logistics offers customs brokerage, specialty transportation, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Effective Date: The partnership is set to take effect on April 26.
See More
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- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's announcement of the ceasefire extension, U.S. stock index futures rose, despite a lower close on Tuesday, while crude oil prices increased, indicating market sensitivity to developments in the Middle East.
- Aviation Industry Outlook: United Airlines has slashed its 2026 earnings outlook due to supply chain issues stemming from the Middle East conflict, reflecting the direct impact of soaring fuel prices on the airline industry and potentially leading to broader industry adjustments.
See More
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- Tariff Refund Policy: Trump stated he will 'remember' companies that do not seek refunds, implying these firms might receive government support in the future, thereby influencing corporate refund decisions and their relationship with the government.
- Refund System Launch: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) launched the CAPE refund processing system on Monday, expected to handle up to $166 billion in refund applications, although payments are not anticipated until 60 to 90 days post-application acceptance.
- Legal Action Dynamics: Major companies like Costco and FedEx have sued the U.S. government to secure timely tariff refunds, while Walmart and Amazon have refrained from litigation, possibly to avoid negative attention from Trump.
- Future Tariff Plans: Trump mentioned that the alternative tariffs being developed could yield higher revenue but will be more complex to implement, with these new tariffs not expected to take effect until July, potentially impacting corporate financial planning.
See More
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- Tariff Refund Applications: UPS and FedEx have initiated requests for tariff refunds through the government process, which only applies to tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, highlighting both companies' commitment to customer rights.
- Refund Process Initiation: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) opened the refund process on Monday, allowing companies to request refunds, although it may take months for customers to receive their money, indicating the complexity of the process.
- UPS Customer Support: UPS stated it will request tariff refunds on behalf of customers, eliminating the need for them to contact UPS directly, which aims to streamline the customer experience and ensure they can fully exercise their rights.
- FedEx Refund Strategy: FedEx has also begun filing claims with CBP for refunds and has committed to issuing refunds to shippers and consumers promptly once received, demonstrating its support and transparency towards customers.
See More
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- Tariff Refund Initiation: The Trump administration is set to initiate $166 billion in tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling, impacting over 53 million shipments and potentially alleviating financial pressure on importers.
- Lawsuit Surge: Major U.S. importers, including FedEx, Costco, and UPS, are facing lawsuits from consumers seeking compensation for increased costs due to tariffs, which could negatively affect these companies' market performance.
- Market Reaction: Following the acceptance of tariff refund claims, FedEx shares surged to record highs, gaining 35% year-to-date, while Costco shares also rose 17%, indicating a positive market response to the refund news.
- Retailer Strategies: FedEx has committed to returning tariff refunds to customers, while Costco plans to pass on refunds through lower prices and better values, showcasing differing strategies among retailers in response to tariff pressures.
See More
Costco and FedEx Face Legal Pressure Over Tariff Refunds
- Increase in Legal Suits: With the U.S. Supreme Court striking down a batch of tariffs, billions in tariff refunds are set to flow back to U.S. businesses, leading to legal pressure on Costco and FedEx as consumers argue they should share in these refunds, highlighting market concerns over corporate pricing strategies.
- Refund Application Process: Despite the substantial refund amounts, companies must file claims through a new government system, which has just begun, potentially taking months to process and impacting companies' cash flow and short-term financial performance.
- Strategic Differences Between Costco and FedEx: FedEx has stated it will directly return tariff refunds to customers, while Costco opts for a strategy of lowering prices and enhancing value over time, indicating a divergence that could affect brand perception and competitive positioning in the market.
- Consumer Impact: As businesses may have absorbed some tariff costs or passed them on through higher prices, the question of refund allocation has sparked widespread discussion, likely leading to more lawsuits in the future, which could influence corporate operational strategies and market dynamics.
See More
