Fed Likely to Pause Rate Hikes Amid Oil Price Shock
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 31 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Oil Price Shock Impact: Gasoline prices in the U.S. have surpassed $4 per gallon, leading to diminished expectations for Fed rate hikes, with investors anticipating that the central bank may hold rates steady or even pivot to cuts later this year to mitigate the potential drag on economic growth from high energy prices.
- Fed Policy Signals: Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that raising rates now may not be appropriate for the economy, particularly given the softening labor market and rising recession concerns, emphasizing the need to focus on the long-term effects of the oil price shock rather than short-term inflation pressures.
- Market Expectation Shifts: Despite recent disappointing inflation data, market expectations for rate hikes have significantly decreased, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicating only a 2.1% chance of a rate hike by year-end, while the likelihood of cuts has risen to about 25% over the past two days.
- Growth Concerns: Economists warn that rising energy prices could lead to
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 147.680
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 147.680
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
First LNG Export Begins at Golden Pass Facility in Texas
- First Export Launch: The Golden Pass facility in Texas welcomed its inaugural LNG export tanker, Al Qaiyyah, on Monday, marking the commencement of production after prolonged construction delays, which is expected to significantly enhance the U.S. competitiveness in the global LNG market.
- Ownership Structure: The project is owned 70% by QatarEnergy and 30% by Exxon Mobil, indicating a deep collaboration between these two energy giants in the LNG sector, which may drive future market expansion and technological innovation.
- Subsequent Shipment Plans: The Exxon Mobil-chartered LNG carrier, HL Sea Eagle, is heading to Golden Pass to load the second shipment, which not only demonstrates the gradual ramp-up of production capacity but also signals an increase in future export volumes.
- Capacity Potential: Golden Pass is expected to have an export capacity exceeding 18 million metric tons per year when fully operational, and despite facing multiple delays and cost overruns since its inception in 2019, its eventual launch will hold significant strategic implications for U.S. energy exports.
See More
Oil Market Volatility Heightens, Investor Bets on Energy Stocks
- Pricing Discrepancy: Investor George Noble highlights a significant pricing difference between paper oil markets, which reflect peace deals, and physical oil markets, which account for war risks, indicating a severe divergence in market expectations for future trends.
- Transport Bottleneck: Currently, 230 oil tankers are stuck in the Persian Gulf, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping over 90%, while Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline can only handle 9 million barrels per day, creating a massive supply gap that cannot be bridged with existing infrastructure.
- Energy Stock Volatility: The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has shown significant divergence from the S&P 500 since the war began, initially outperforming the benchmark due to the Hormuz crisis but underperforming after signs of a ceasefire, reflecting the market's sensitivity to energy stocks.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the United States Oil Fund (USO) gaining nearly 86% year-to-date, market sentiment remains bearish, reflecting investor concerns about future oil price movements, particularly after Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, leading to a pullback in oil prices.
See More
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Deadline Amid Market Uncertainty
- Ceasefire Extension: President Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire deadline by two weeks, a move that may exacerbate uncertainty in the Middle East conflict as Tehran shows reluctance to engage in diplomatic efforts, potentially impacting global market sentiment.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's announcement of the ceasefire extension, U.S. stock index futures rose, despite a lower close on Tuesday, while crude oil prices increased, indicating market sensitivity to developments in the Middle East.
- Aviation Industry Outlook: United Airlines has slashed its 2026 earnings outlook due to supply chain issues stemming from the Middle East conflict, reflecting the direct impact of soaring fuel prices on the airline industry and potentially leading to broader industry adjustments.
See More
Brent Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Impact Oil Companies' Outlook
- Price Decline Context: Brent crude oil prices have recently dipped below $100 a barrel, significantly lower than the $119.50 peak caused by Iran's attack, indicating a fragile de-escalation in the Middle East that could lead to future price volatility.
- War Impact Assessment: While the current ceasefire has temporarily lowered oil prices, a resumption of conflict could cause a significant spike in prices, further impacting oil infrastructure in the Gulf and leading to supply disruptions that affect the global market.
- Oil Company Earnings Outlook: With oil prices starting the year around $60, many oil companies budgeted for prices between $60 and $70, resulting in substantial profits now, particularly Chevron, which expects to generate $12.5 billion in free cash flow at $70 oil.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Even if a peace deal is reached, oil prices are unlikely to quickly revert to the $60 range, with ongoing supply shortages expected, positioning companies like Exxon and Chevron to significantly exceed their growth expectations, making them compelling long-term investment opportunities.
See More
UBS Analysis: Impact of US-Iran Ceasefire on Stocks
- Ceasefire Impact Assessment: UBS analysts evaluated individual stocks' performance during the US-Iran ceasefire using three metrics, including exposure to Middle Eastern commodities, pricing power, and sensitivity to past supply shocks, providing investors with clear investment directions.
- Southwest Airlines Outlook: The stock of Southwest Airlines fell over 25% during the war, but UBS believes it will benefit if hostilities cease; prior to the conflict, analysts upgraded the stock to buy, anticipating that new initiatives would enhance profitability.
- Procter & Gamble Potential Winner: As of Monday, Procter & Gamble's stock was 14% below its pre-war level, despite gaining 17% in the first two months of the year, and UBS sees potential for recovery and increased market confidence if peace is achieved.
- UPS Growth Opportunities: UPS's stock rose 17% in the two months before the war but fell 18% during hostilities; UBS analysts noted that avoiding further conflict could benefit UPS due to its undervalued stock and potential earnings growth.
See More
ExxonMobil: A Prime Choice for Energy Investment
- Company Overview: ExxonMobil is one of the world's largest energy companies, boasting a globally diversified asset portfolio across the entire energy value chain, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.19, indicating strong financial health among its peers.
- Dividend Appeal: The company offers a 2.8% dividend yield, significantly higher than the 0.63% from the S&P 500 index, making it an attractive option for conservative investors, especially amid current market volatility.
- Market Volatility: Although ExxonMobil's stock has recently declined over 10%, it remains up more than 35% over the past year, highlighting its long-term investment value, suggesting that investors should consider waiting for a downturn in the energy sector before buying.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Investors are advised to monitor ExxonMobil's dividend yield, considering a buy signal if it reaches around 3.5%, which would historically represent an attractive entry point to navigate potential future market fluctuations.
See More
First LNG Export Begins at Golden Pass Facility in Texas
- First Export Launch: The Golden Pass facility in Texas welcomed its inaugural LNG export tanker, Al Qaiyyah, on Monday, marking the commencement of production after prolonged construction delays, which is expected to significantly enhance the U.S. competitiveness in the global LNG market.
- Ownership Structure: The project is owned 70% by QatarEnergy and 30% by Exxon Mobil, indicating a deep collaboration between these two energy giants in the LNG sector, which may drive future market expansion and technological innovation.
- Subsequent Shipment Plans: The Exxon Mobil-chartered LNG carrier, HL Sea Eagle, is heading to Golden Pass to load the second shipment, which not only demonstrates the gradual ramp-up of production capacity but also signals an increase in future export volumes.
- Capacity Potential: Golden Pass is expected to have an export capacity exceeding 18 million metric tons per year when fully operational, and despite facing multiple delays and cost overruns since its inception in 2019, its eventual launch will hold significant strategic implications for U.S. energy exports.
See More
Oil Market Volatility Heightens, Investor Bets on Energy Stocks
- Pricing Discrepancy: Investor George Noble highlights a significant pricing difference between paper oil markets, which reflect peace deals, and physical oil markets, which account for war risks, indicating a severe divergence in market expectations for future trends.
- Transport Bottleneck: Currently, 230 oil tankers are stuck in the Persian Gulf, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping over 90%, while Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline can only handle 9 million barrels per day, creating a massive supply gap that cannot be bridged with existing infrastructure.
- Energy Stock Volatility: The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has shown significant divergence from the S&P 500 since the war began, initially outperforming the benchmark due to the Hormuz crisis but underperforming after signs of a ceasefire, reflecting the market's sensitivity to energy stocks.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the United States Oil Fund (USO) gaining nearly 86% year-to-date, market sentiment remains bearish, reflecting investor concerns about future oil price movements, particularly after Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, leading to a pullback in oil prices.
See More
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Deadline Amid Market Uncertainty
- Ceasefire Extension: President Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire deadline by two weeks, a move that may exacerbate uncertainty in the Middle East conflict as Tehran shows reluctance to engage in diplomatic efforts, potentially impacting global market sentiment.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's announcement of the ceasefire extension, U.S. stock index futures rose, despite a lower close on Tuesday, while crude oil prices increased, indicating market sensitivity to developments in the Middle East.
- Aviation Industry Outlook: United Airlines has slashed its 2026 earnings outlook due to supply chain issues stemming from the Middle East conflict, reflecting the direct impact of soaring fuel prices on the airline industry and potentially leading to broader industry adjustments.
See More
Brent Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Impact Oil Companies' Outlook
- Price Decline Context: Brent crude oil prices have recently dipped below $100 a barrel, significantly lower than the $119.50 peak caused by Iran's attack, indicating a fragile de-escalation in the Middle East that could lead to future price volatility.
- War Impact Assessment: While the current ceasefire has temporarily lowered oil prices, a resumption of conflict could cause a significant spike in prices, further impacting oil infrastructure in the Gulf and leading to supply disruptions that affect the global market.
- Oil Company Earnings Outlook: With oil prices starting the year around $60, many oil companies budgeted for prices between $60 and $70, resulting in substantial profits now, particularly Chevron, which expects to generate $12.5 billion in free cash flow at $70 oil.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Even if a peace deal is reached, oil prices are unlikely to quickly revert to the $60 range, with ongoing supply shortages expected, positioning companies like Exxon and Chevron to significantly exceed their growth expectations, making them compelling long-term investment opportunities.
See More
UBS Analysis: Impact of US-Iran Ceasefire on Stocks
- Ceasefire Impact Assessment: UBS analysts evaluated individual stocks' performance during the US-Iran ceasefire using three metrics, including exposure to Middle Eastern commodities, pricing power, and sensitivity to past supply shocks, providing investors with clear investment directions.
- Southwest Airlines Outlook: The stock of Southwest Airlines fell over 25% during the war, but UBS believes it will benefit if hostilities cease; prior to the conflict, analysts upgraded the stock to buy, anticipating that new initiatives would enhance profitability.
- Procter & Gamble Potential Winner: As of Monday, Procter & Gamble's stock was 14% below its pre-war level, despite gaining 17% in the first two months of the year, and UBS sees potential for recovery and increased market confidence if peace is achieved.
- UPS Growth Opportunities: UPS's stock rose 17% in the two months before the war but fell 18% during hostilities; UBS analysts noted that avoiding further conflict could benefit UPS due to its undervalued stock and potential earnings growth.
See More
ExxonMobil: A Prime Choice for Energy Investment
- Company Overview: ExxonMobil is one of the world's largest energy companies, boasting a globally diversified asset portfolio across the entire energy value chain, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.19, indicating strong financial health among its peers.
- Dividend Appeal: The company offers a 2.8% dividend yield, significantly higher than the 0.63% from the S&P 500 index, making it an attractive option for conservative investors, especially amid current market volatility.
- Market Volatility: Although ExxonMobil's stock has recently declined over 10%, it remains up more than 35% over the past year, highlighting its long-term investment value, suggesting that investors should consider waiting for a downturn in the energy sector before buying.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Investors are advised to monitor ExxonMobil's dividend yield, considering a buy signal if it reaches around 3.5%, which would historically represent an attractive entry point to navigate potential future market fluctuations.
See More
