European Pharma Companies Look Ahead to 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy LLY?
Source: CNBC
- Patent Cliff Challenge: Pharmaceutical companies are facing an impending patent cliff, with billions in sales at risk, particularly Novartis, which anticipates a $4 billion loss in the first half of 2025, compelling firms to invest heavily in new drug pipelines to offset revenue losses.
- Optimistic Pipeline Outlook: Companies like Novartis and AstraZeneca are emphasizing their robust drug pipelines, with Novartis projecting $59 billion in revenue for 2025 and AstraZeneca aiming for $80 billion by 2030, reflecting confidence in future growth despite current challenges.
- M&A Strategic Focus: As companies seek to replenish revenue through acquisitions, there is a growing emphasis on the Chinese market as a significant source of innovation, with the frequency of deals with Chinese firms increasing markedly over the past decade.
- Pricing Strategy Uncertainty: Although the immediate threat from Trump's Most Favored Nation drug pricing policy has diminished, pharmaceutical companies are still deliberating on how to balance pricing strategies between the U.S. and European markets to ensure market access and profitability for new drugs.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 886.630
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 886.630
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

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- Fed's Stabilizing Signal: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors at Harvard University that rising oil prices would not necessitate interest rate hikes, resulting in a significant drop in market expectations for future rate increases, reflecting confidence in economic stability.
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- Novo Nordisk Launches Long-Term Subscriptions: Novo Nordisk has introduced multi-month subscriptions for Wegovy in an effort to compete with Eli Lilly, offering more cost-effective options that could attract additional users and enhance market share in the GLP-1 segment.
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- Subscription Program Launch: Novo Nordisk has introduced a multi-month subscription program for its Wegovy obesity drug, aiming to provide cash-paying patients with lower, predictable monthly prices, with potential annual savings of up to $1,200.
- Flexible Options: Patients can choose from three, six, or twelve-month subscriptions, with lower monthly fees for both the injection and the newly launched pill, priced at $329 for three months, $299 for six months, and $249 for twelve months for the injection.
- Competitive Market Pressure: Following the explosive uptake of Novo's pill since its U.S. launch in January, it is set to face competition from Eli Lilly's upcoming oral GLP-1, which currently holds a 60% market share in the U.S.
- Patient Support Strategy: Novo emphasizes that the subscription program not only aids patients in starting therapy but also helps them manage pricing fluctuations during treatment, aiming to enhance long-term adherence to obesity treatment.
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- Oil Price Impact: The average gas price in the U.S. has surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, indicating that the surge in crude oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict is putting pressure on the market, with all three major indexes on track for their worst monthly and quarterly performance since 2022.
- Fed Policy Stability: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors at Harvard University that rising oil prices would not necessitate interest rate hikes, stating that the current rate target is 'a good place,' which led to a sharp decline in rate hike odds among traders and alleviated inflation concerns.
- Real Estate Market Consolidation: Opendoor is acquiring parts of Doma to leverage artificial intelligence in reducing real estate closing costs, particularly as mortgage refinancing applications decline, potentially enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Pharmaceutical Industry Competition: Novo Nordisk is launching multi-month Wegovy subscriptions to catch up with Eli Lilly in the GLP-1 market, with longer-term packages expected to save users hundreds of dollars, intensifying the competition between the two companies.
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- Acquisition Overview: Eli Lilly has agreed to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for $38 per share in cash, valuing the transaction at approximately $6.3 billion, with a contingent value right (CVR) potentially raising the total consideration to $47 per share, indicating strong confidence in Centessa.
- Strategic Expansion: This acquisition aims to enhance Lilly's market presence in neuroscience and sleep disorder treatments, particularly targeting experimental therapies for excessive daytime sleepiness and related neurological conditions, thereby diversifying its product pipeline.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Centessa Pharmaceuticals' stock surged over 46% in Tuesday's premarket trading, reflecting the market's favorable view of the deal and recognition of future growth potential.
- Potential Value Increase: The CVR could add approximately $1.5 billion in additional equity value to the transaction, further enhancing Centessa's attractiveness and indicating Lilly's optimistic outlook on its future research and development outcomes.
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