Eli Lilly Dominance: The Impact of a Single Stock on Pharma ETF Performance
Eli Lilly's Influence on Healthcare ETFs: Eli Lilly has become a significant driver in the pharmaceutical ETF market, with around 15 ETFs allocating double-digit weights to the company, making it a key player in healthcare fund performance.
Strong Q3 Performance: In Q3, Eli Lilly reported a 54% year-over-year revenue increase, surpassing Wall Street expectations, and raised its full-year sales and EPS guidance, solidifying its status as a growth engine in the sector.
Major ETF Allocations: Leading ETFs like iShares US Pharmaceuticals ETF and VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF have substantial allocations to Lilly, with weights of 26.9% and 24.1% respectively, indicating a strong reliance on the stock for performance.
Concerns Over Concentration: While Eli Lilly's growth is beneficial for investors, there are concerns about the potential over-dependence of ETFs on a single stock, as Lilly's performance continues to significantly impact the broader pharmaceutical ETF market.
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- Strong Clinical Execution: Eli Lilly achieved positive outcomes in nearly all R&D key events in 2025, showcasing exceptional performance in diabetes and weight loss medications, which is expected to further drive market share and revenue growth in the future.
- Cancer Drug Progress: The company's cancer medication, Jaypirca, excelled in a phase 3 trial and is on track for label expansions, which will provide new revenue streams and enhance its competitiveness in oncology treatment.
- AI Investment: Eli Lilly is investing in building the industry's largest AI supercomputer to accelerate drug development, which is expected to significantly improve clinical trial success rates and bolster the company's innovative standing and market leadership in the pharmaceutical sector.
- Robust Financial Performance: The company continues to report strong financial results, boasts a rich product pipeline, and rewards shareholders through increasing dividends and share buybacks, demonstrating its diversified growth potential beyond diabetes and weight loss markets.
- Trial Success: The LIBRETTO-432 trial demonstrated that Retevmo (selpercatinib) as adjuvant therapy significantly improved event-free survival (EFS) in early-stage RET fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, indicating its potential value and likely enhancing market acceptance.
- Survival Trends Favorable: Although overall survival results were immature at the time of analysis, preliminary data showed a favorable trend for Retevmo, highlighting its importance in early treatment and potentially encouraging more patients to undergo genomic testing for optimized therapy.
- Patient Recruitment: The LIBRETTO-432 trial enrolled 151 patients randomized 1:1 to receive either Retevmo or placebo, ensuring the reliability and clinical applicability of the results, further validating the use of targeted therapies in lung cancer.
- Future Outlook: Eli Lilly plans to present detailed trial results at an upcoming medical congress and submit data to global health authorities, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of targeted therapies in early-stage NSCLC patients and promote the widespread use of genomic testing.
- Funding Achievement: Chai Discovery completed a $130 million Series B funding round in 2024, achieving a valuation of $1.3 billion and securing its status as a unicorn, reflecting strong market confidence in its AI-driven drug development potential.
- Partnership Development: The company has established a partnership with pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, which will utilize Chai's AI models for multiple drug development projects, marking a significant advancement in the application of AI within the pharmaceutical industry.
- Technological Innovation: Chai Discovery is developing a computer-aided molecular design software aimed at increasing drug development success rates, with the success rate improving from 0.1% to 20% over the past year, showcasing rapid technological advancements and strong market demand.
- Founder's Background: Co-founder Joshua Meier has a rich background from OpenAI and Meta, providing extensive experience in AI and biotechnology, which lays a solid foundation for Chai Discovery's innovations and underscores its leadership position in AI drug development.
- Trial Success: Eli Lilly announced that selpercatinib demonstrated a significant improvement in event-free survival (EFS) for early-stage RET fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer patients in the LIBRETTO-432 trial, providing strong clinical evidence for early intervention and potentially enhancing market acceptance of the drug.
- Patient Recruitment: The trial enrolled 151 patients randomized 1:1 to receive either selpercatinib or placebo, with results indicating that selpercatinib outperformed placebo in EFS, further validating the importance of genomic testing in early lung cancer diagnosis.
- Safety Profile: The safety profile of selpercatinib in LIBRETTO-432 was consistent with previous studies, with some patients experiencing hepatotoxicity and hypertension; however, the overall safety was manageable, laying a foundation for its clinical application.
- Future Outlook: Eli Lilly plans to present detailed results at an upcoming medical congress and submit data to global health authorities, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of genomic testing in early lung cancer patients and further promote the development of precision medicine.
- AI Platform Launch: Eli Lilly launched the TuneLab platform in September last year, allowing other drugmakers digital access to proprietary data on drug molecule performance, which saves significant time and money, enabling companies to focus on their best research projects.
- Major Investment Partnership: Eli Lilly partnered with Nvidia, committing $1 billion to build a supercomputer aimed at deepening disease understanding and advancing drug development, marking a significant step in the company's AI drug development efforts.
- Huge Market Potential: According to Straits Research, the AI-powered drug discovery industry is expected to grow at an annual rate of 30% through 2034, reaching over $20 billion, providing Eli Lilly with substantial future revenue opportunities.
- Increased Collaboration Opportunities: By owning a powerful drug development platform, Eli Lilly can not only optimize its own research but also establish partnerships with smaller pharmaceutical companies, helping them bring new drugs to market and enhancing its competitive edge.
- Clinical Trial Success Rate: Eli Lilly achieved positive outcomes in nearly all R&D key events in 2025, showcasing strong performance in diabetes and weight loss, which is expected to further drive the company's financial growth.
- Innovative Drug Progress: Eli Lilly's anti-obesity drug retatrutide excelled in a phase 3 study, potentially providing new revenue streams, while the cancer drug Jaypirca also succeeded in phase 3, paving the way for label expansions.
- AI Investment: Eli Lilly is investing in building the industry's largest AI supercomputer to accelerate drug development, indicating the company's forward-thinking approach to innovation, with the FDA also recognizing the value of AI in drug discovery.
- Strong Financial Performance: Eli Lilly not only excels in clinical trials but also continues to reward shareholders with growing dividends and share buybacks, demonstrating its diversified investment potential beyond diabetes and weight loss.









