Documents Reveal Meta's $16 Billion Revenue Forecast from Fraudulent Advertisements
Revenue from Scam Ads: Leaked documents indicate that Meta Platforms Inc. projected around $16 billion in revenue from scam advertisements and banned goods in 2024, representing nearly 10% of its total revenue.
Inability to Control Fraudulent Ads: The documents revealed that Meta displayed an estimated 15 billion "higher risk" scam ads daily, exposing users to various fraudulent schemes, while the company was slow to act against known scammers.
Impact on Reputation: The significant contribution of scam ads to Meta's revenue raises concerns about the company's commitment to user safety and its effectiveness in combating fraudulent activities, potentially harming its reputation and user trust.
Contradictory Claims: Despite Meta's assertion of a 50% decrease in user reports about scam ads, the leaked documents suggest a different reality, highlighting a disconnect between the company's claims and the actual situation.
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- Strong Earnings: Meta reported a 24% revenue growth in Q4 2025, beating market expectations, although the stock has drifted lower post-earnings, indicating investor concerns over future spending.
- Surge in Capex: The capital expenditure forecast for 2026 has been raised to between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly doubling the $72.2 billion spent in 2025, leading to a divide among investors regarding the sustainability of this spending plan.
- Robust User Growth: Meta's Family of Apps now boasts 3.58 billion daily active users, representing 43% of the global population, showcasing effective AI application in its advertising business with an 18% increase in ad impressions.
- Strong Profitability: Meta anticipates Q1 2026 revenues between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, implying growth rates as high as 34%, and despite spending pressures, the company maintains strong cash flow and profitability metrics.
- Global AI Summit: The Web Summit in Doha attracted over 30,000 founders, investors, and experts, establishing itself as a global hub for AI discussions and showcasing the Middle East's rise in the global AI landscape.
- Innovation Sandbox: Qatar Foundation Chairperson Sheikha Moza bint Nasser described the event as a 'sandbox of innovation,' highlighting AI's potential to empower small businesses and drive economic growth, particularly as large enterprises face implementation challenges.
- Energy and Data Infrastructure: Attendees discussed the resilience of supply chains, energy systems, and data infrastructure amid rising geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for governments to ensure supply and diversification of computing capabilities to meet the demands of the information age.
- Investment Opportunities: Qatar's Prime Minister announced an additional $2 billion for the Qatar Investment Authority's Fund of Funds program, bringing total committed capital to $3 billion, supporting 12 regional and international fund managers, reflecting the country's ambition and potential in global AI investments.
- Significant AI Investment Returns: Bill Ackman purchased Alphabet stock in 2023, despite market skepticism regarding its position amid the rise of AI chatbots, and his investments have notably outperformed the S&P 500, demonstrating his foresight.
- Reason for Hilton Stock Sale: Ackman initially invested in Hilton in 2018, during which the company's loyalty membership surged from 85 million to 243 million, and its EBITDA increased from $2.1 billion to $3.7 billion over seven years; however, he opted to fully exit after a 350% stock price increase to seek higher return opportunities.
- AI Potential of Meta Platforms: Ackman revealed at the annual shareholder meeting that his latest AI stock purchase is Meta, believing its business model is a clear beneficiary of AI integration, with an expected 20% annualized earnings growth, indicating strong growth prospects.
- Advertising Revenue Growth: Meta's ad impressions rose by 18% in Q4, with average ad pricing increasing by 6%, thanks to its AI recommendation algorithms; Ackman sees this as a significant opportunity for expanding the advertising customer base, despite projected capital expenditures of $115 billion to $135 billion.
- Significant AI Growth: Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue surged 74% year-over-year in the latest quarter, with projections indicating it will reach $8.2 billion in Q1, showcasing strong market demand and growth potential.
- Record Backlog: The backlog for Broadcom's AI switches has exceeded $10 billion, reflecting the company's critical role in AI data center buildouts and strong market confidence.
- Product Differentiation: Broadcom has launched the industry's first Wi-Fi 8 access point and switch system, aimed at enhancing security and speed for enterprises using AI, thereby further solidifying its market position.
- Competitive Strategy: Broadcom's custom XPUs complement Nvidia and AMD's general-purpose GPUs, allowing the company to grow rapidly in specific niches while avoiding the pressures of direct competition.
- New Investment Direction: Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management has recently increased its stake in Meta Platforms, now accounting for 10% of its capital, reflecting strong confidence in the company's leadership in the digital advertising space.
- User Base Growth: Meta's daily active users have reached 3.5 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, providing robust growth potential for advertising revenue and further solidifying its market position.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Meta's revenue grew by 22% in 2025, demonstrating its diversified revenue streams and strong management team, particularly in ongoing innovations in social media and Reality Labs.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: Ackman noted that Meta's price-to-earnings ratio has dropped from 21.2 to 18.2, indicating the stock is undervalued; despite market disappointment over its planned $165 billion capital expenditure for 2026, the future growth opportunities remain compelling.
- New Investment Direction: Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management has recently invested in Meta Platforms, which now accounts for 10% of its capital, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future growth.
- User Base Advantage: With over 3.5 billion users and a 7% year-over-year increase in daily active users, Meta provides a robust growth potential for its digital advertising business, which Ackman identifies as a key factor for investment.
- Strong Financial Performance: Meta's revenue grew by 22% in 2025, and its price-to-earnings ratio has decreased from 21.2 to 18.2, indicating that its stock is undervalued, which Ackman sees as an excellent buying opportunity.
- Strategic Positioning: Ackman plans to develop Howard Hughes Holdings into a diversified holding company, demonstrating his strategic vision for seeking long-term growth in his investment portfolio, with the investment in Meta being a key component of this strategy.










