Discovering the 'Hidden Gold Mine' That Has Outperformed the Market for Three Decades
Corporate Spin-offs as Investment Opportunities: Corporate spin-offs have consistently outperformed the market over the past 30 years, with studies showing they deliver average excess returns of 3% on ex-dates and outperform the overall market by 10% in their first three years of independence.
Mechanics of Spin-offs: Investors often sell spin-off shares indiscriminately, creating opportunities for those who recognize the potential value in these newly independent companies, which can thrive without the constraints of their parent organizations.
Successful Spin-off Examples: Notable spin-offs like Yum Brands, Chipotle, and AbbVie have demonstrated significant returns, with Yum delivering a 1,600% return since its spin-off and Chipotle rising from $22 to $1,592 per share.
Current Trends and Future Potential: The spin-off market is evolving, with larger and more impactful separations occurring, driven by activist investors and a focus on unlocking value. Despite recent trends suggesting some spin-offs may be defensive moves, opportunities for outsized returns still exist for diligent investors.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on PSX
About PSX
About the author

- Diesel Price Surge: Diesel prices have skyrocketed from $3.365 per gallon in January to $5.382, a 59% increase, significantly benefiting independent refiners like Valero and Phillips 66, reflecting strong market demand and supply constraints.
- Valero's Strong Financials: Valero's stock has risen 39% this year and over 105% in the past year, with adjusted net income per share reaching $10.61 in 2025, a 25% increase, demonstrating the company's profitability and competitive edge in a high diesel price environment.
- Phillips 66 Diversification Strategy: Phillips 66 has successfully transformed into a midstream-focused company through acquisitions like DCP Midstream and EPIC NGL, providing more stable cash flow, with adjusted EPS of $6.44 in 2025, up 4.7%, indicating financial robustness.
- Renewable Energy Investment Outlook: Both companies are investing in renewable fuels, with Valero being the largest renewable diesel producer in North America and Phillips 66 converting its San Francisco refinery into a renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel facility, signaling their leadership in the energy transition.
- Diesel Price Surge: Diesel prices have skyrocketed from $3.365 to $5.382 per gallon in just weeks, a 59% increase that benefits independent refiners like Valero and Phillips 66, further driving their stock prices upward.
- Valero's Strong Performance: Valero reported an adjusted EPS of $10.61 for 2025, a 25% increase year-over-year, with refinery utilization rates exceeding 96%, significantly above industry averages, showcasing its competitive edge in the market.
- Phillips 66's Diversified Revenue: By acquiring DCP Midstream and EPIC NGL, Phillips 66 has successfully transformed its business model, establishing a more stable natural gas liquids operation that is expected to provide steady cash flow and enhance its risk resilience.
- Dividend Growth and Buybacks: Both Valero and Phillips 66 have increased their dividends by 100% and 101% over the past decade, respectively, and are actively repurchasing shares, which boosts investor confidence and shareholder returns.
- Diesel Price Surge: Diesel prices have skyrocketed from $3.365 to $5.382 per gallon in just weeks, a 59% increase that benefits refiners like Valero Energy and Phillips 66 through higher crack spreads, enhancing their profitability.
- Valero's Strong Financials: Valero's stock has risen 39% this year and over 105% in the past year, with an adjusted EPS of $10.61 for 2025, reflecting a 25% increase, indicating robust financial health even before the diesel price surge.
- Phillips 66 Diversification Strategy: Phillips 66 has successfully transitioned into midstream operations through acquisitions like DCP Midstream and EPIC NGL, providing more stable cash flow, and has converted its San Francisco refinery into a major renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel facility, positioning itself as a leader in the energy transition.
- Consistent Shareholder Returns: Both Valero and Phillips 66 have increased dividends over the past decade, with Valero raising its dividend by 6.2% to $1.20 per quarter and Phillips 66 by 5.8% to $1.27, demonstrating their commitment to shareholders and financial stability.
- Project Advancement: Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan announced the advancement of the Western Gateway pipeline project, which secured long-term shipper commitments during the second open season, ensuring the project's feasibility and demonstrating market confidence.
- Market Connectivity: The Western Gateway pipeline will connect Midwest and Gulf Coast refinery supplies directly to Arizona and California markets, with connectivity to Las Vegas, Nevada, through Kinder Morgan's CALNEV pipeline, enhancing regional logistics capabilities.
- Asset Utilization: The system will combine new pipeline construction with the use and modification of existing assets, including reversing flows in Kinder Morgan's SFPP pipeline and Phillips 66's Gold pipeline, thereby improving resource efficiency and enabling westbound flows.
- Customer Demand: Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier emphasized that positive customer feedback during the open season underscores the importance of the Western Gateway in addressing long-term refined products logistics needs in the region, indicating that the project will drive market growth.
- Quarterly Dividend Declaration: Phillips 66 has declared a quarterly dividend of $1.27 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and profitability, which is likely to attract more income-focused investors.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 3.25% reflects the company's attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially boosting investor confidence in its stock.
- Shareholder Record Date: The dividend will be payable on June 1, with a record date of May 18 and an ex-dividend date also on May 18, ensuring eligible shareholders receive their payouts promptly, thereby strengthening shareholder relations.
- Market Outlook: Amid rising global oil prices, Phillips 66 forecasts up to $1 billion in derivatives losses; however, the company continues to demonstrate strong execution and adaptability in the market.
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.20% and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.29%, reaching all-time highs, reflecting investor optimism regarding US-Iran peace talks, which may enhance risk appetite in the markets.
- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude prices fell over 11% to a five-week low after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, easing inflation concerns and causing the 10-year T-note yield to drop 7 basis points to 4.24%.
- Strong Earnings Season: The earnings season started robustly, with 81% of the 48 S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings exceeding estimates, projecting a 12% year-over-year increase in earnings, providing strong support for the stock market.
- Airline Stocks Surge: Airline stocks surged as fuel costs decreased, with Alaska Air Group (ALK) rising over 10% and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) up more than 7%, indicating market confidence in the recovery of the airline industry.











