Buy hard assets like gold ahead of a potential bond market panic, says Bear Traps' Larry McDonald
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 10 2025
0mins
Source: CNBC
Government Debt Impact: The potential issuance of over $1 trillion in new government debt could lead to a shift from bonds to commodities as safer investments, with estimates suggesting $1.5 trillion in new debt by February, which is significantly higher than last year.
Investment Strategy Shift: Larry McDonald proposes a revised investment strategy that allocates more towards commodities, suggesting a portfolio adjustment to 30% bonds, 30% stocks, 30% commodities, and 10% cash, while noting the availability of ETFs for individual investors to gain exposure to hard assets.
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Analyst Views on MCD
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 308.530
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
Current: 308.530
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
About MCD
McDonald's Corporation is a global foodservice retailer. Its segment includes U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment is its largest market and is 95% franchised. The International Operated Markets segment is comprised of markets, or countries in which it operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. This segment is 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment is comprised of developmental licensee and affiliate markets, including equity method investments in China and Japan. This segment is 99% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches, such as the McChicken and McCrispy as well as Chicken McNuggets, Fries, shakes, sundaes, cookies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Leveraging Popularity: The fast-food chain aims to capitalize on the recent success of the film to attract customers with themed menu items.
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- Consumer Spending Slowdown: High-frequency data indicates that low-income consumers are under greater pressure from rising gas prices, leading to reduced discretionary spending on food away from home, which could directly impact sales for both companies, particularly in international markets.
- Franchisee Profitability Under Pressure: Rising energy and commodity costs are tightening franchisee margins, and while McDonald's has leveraged strong hedging programs to shield stores from immediate volatility, prolonged high energy prices could hinder store renovations and digital expansion plans.
- International Market Challenges: The geopolitical situation has disrupted supply chains and increased logistics costs in Asia, posing challenges for Restaurant Brands International in maintaining consistent value messaging, and while analysts remain optimistic about long-term unit growth potential, near-term earnings reports may reflect a cautious outlook.
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- Technical Indicator Observation: According to data from TechnicalAnalysisChannel.com, McDonald's stock has fallen below its 200-day moving average, potentially signaling further downside risk in the short term, prompting investors to closely monitor market dynamics.
- Market Sentiment Assessment: The current stock price of $306.28 shows a significant gap from the 52-week high, suggesting that market expectations for McDonald's growth may be weakening, leading to a more cautious investor sentiment.
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