Burlington Stores price target lowered to $365 from $380 at Bernstein
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 30 2025
0mins
Should l Buy BURL?
Price Target Adjustment: Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman has lowered the price target for Burlington Stores from $380 to $365 while maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares.
Growth Outlook: Despite short-term demand pressures from a weaker low-income consumer, Burlington is expected to achieve about 25% EPS growth through 2028, making it a compelling long-term investment opportunity.
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Analyst Views on BURL
Wall Street analysts forecast BURL stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 312.750
Low
310.00
Averages
334.62
High
363.00
Current: 312.750
Low
310.00
Averages
334.62
High
363.00
About BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. is an off-price retailer of branded merchandise at everyday low prices. The Company’s stores offer an extensive selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including women’s ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, baby, beauty, footwear, accessories, home, toys, gifts and coats. Its broad selection provides a wide range of apparel, accessories and furnishings for all ages. It sells a broad selection of merchandise acquired directly from manufacturers and other suppliers. It has six distribution centers. Its three east coast distribution centers are located in Edgewater Park, New Jersey; Burlington, New Jersey; and Logan, New Jersey. Its three west coast distribution centers are located in San Bernardino, California, Redlands, California, and Riverside, California. These six distribution centers occupy an aggregate of 5,135,000 square feet, and each includes processing, shipping and storage capabilities. It operates in about 1,108 stores.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: Brent crude futures have surged above $110 per barrel due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, with diesel prices exceeding $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, potentially imposing secondary effects on the U.S. retail sector and increasing household budget pressures.
- Advantage of Higher-Income Customers: Deutsche Bank analysts noted that retailers like Ulta Beauty and Costco, which cater to higher-income demographics, have historically shown a positive correlation between sales and rising oil prices, indicating better sales performance in such environments.
- Pressure on Lower-Income Customers: Conversely, retailers like BJ's Wholesale Club and Burlington Stores, which primarily serve lower-income customers, exhibit negative sales correlations with rising gas prices, highlighting a trend where lower-income consumers reduce spending as fuel costs increase.
- Inventory Management Strategy: Despite the risks associated with rising input costs, many global brands, including Amer Sports and Birkenstock, maintain over 200 days of finished goods inventory, which helps mitigate near-term margin pressures and ensures market stability amid supply chain disruptions.
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- Pricing Strategy: According to Bank of America’s industry analysis, off-price retailers like TJX, Ross, and Burlington are leveraging higher Average Unit Retail (AUR) prices to offset margin pressures, maintaining competitiveness amid rising logistics costs.
- Logistics Cost Comparison: Despite diesel prices surging 50% year-over-year to $5.38 per gallon, analysts estimate this will exert approximately 20 basis points of pressure on TJX's gross margins, significantly lower than the 280 basis points peak seen in late 2022, indicating industry resilience.
- Inventory Management Advantage: By focusing on higher-margin units, off-price retailers effectively reduce their
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- Market Dynamics: Off-price retailers like TJX, Ross Stores, and Burlington Stores may be facing changes in market conditions, although specific financial data and market reactions have not been disclosed, industry analysts generally believe these companies possess resilience amid economic fluctuations.
- Industry Outlook: With increasing consumer demand for discounted goods, these retailers may see sales growth in upcoming quarters, particularly as the appeal of off-price retailers could further strengthen against a backdrop of economic uncertainty.
- Competitive Landscape: While there are currently no specific upgrades or rating changes, the rising analyst attention on off-price retailers suggests that market confidence in their future performance may be increasing, especially as consumer spending shifts towards more cost-effective products.
- Investor Focus: Investors may closely monitor these companies' earnings reports and market performance to assess their adaptability during economic fluctuations and long-term growth potential, although specific financial metrics and analytical data are currently lacking.
See More
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- Oil Price Surge Impact: The ongoing Iran war has driven WTI crude oil prices above $88 per barrel, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, which could pressure the stock market, as evidenced by the S&P 500's slight decline amid a 5% rise in oil prices.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release: President Trump announced the release of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate energy prices, while the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address global supply disruptions, although these measures are seen as temporary fixes.
- Strong Data Center Infrastructure: Cramer highlighted Oracle's robust earnings as validation of the AI-driven data center infrastructure theme, indicating that its buildout is progressing better than expected, potentially offering new opportunities for investors.
- Ongoing Memory Shortage: Commentary from Hewlett Packard Enterprise suggests that the shortage of memory used in AI and computing systems may persist longer than anticipated, providing potential investment opportunities for related companies.
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Consumer Spending Trends: U.S. consumer spending remains resilient, with higher-income households continuing to spend freely, while lower-income consumers are scaling back due to elevated prices and rising debt.
Shift to Discount Retailers: As many households look to trim expenses, shoppers are increasingly turning to discount chains and warehouse clubs, benefiting retailers like TJX Companies, Ross Stores, and Dollar General.
Investment Opportunities: Analysts suggest that investors can benefit from the shift towards a more price-conscious economy by focusing on ETFs that provide exposure to value-oriented retailers, such as XLV and XRT.
Market Performance: Retail ETFs like RTH and XLY have shown strong performance, with RTH rising nearly 17% over the past year, while also providing significant exposure to major retailers like Amazon and Walmart, which dominate the market.
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Burlington Stores' Successful Year Expected to Boost Stock Performance: What's Ahead?
- Santa's Shopping Spree: Santa has been spotted doing extensive shopping at Burlington, suggesting a festive preparation for the holiday season.
- Burlington's Appeal: The store's variety and discounts likely make it a popular choice for holiday shoppers looking for gifts.
- Holiday Spirit: The image of Santa shopping reflects the joyful and giving spirit associated with the Christmas season.
- Community Engagement: This event may encourage local community members to visit Burlington for their holiday shopping needs.
See More
Analysis of Retail Sector Impact from Rising Oil Prices
- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: Brent crude futures have surged above $110 per barrel due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, with diesel prices exceeding $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, potentially imposing secondary effects on the U.S. retail sector and increasing household budget pressures.
- Advantage of Higher-Income Customers: Deutsche Bank analysts noted that retailers like Ulta Beauty and Costco, which cater to higher-income demographics, have historically shown a positive correlation between sales and rising oil prices, indicating better sales performance in such environments.
- Pressure on Lower-Income Customers: Conversely, retailers like BJ's Wholesale Club and Burlington Stores, which primarily serve lower-income customers, exhibit negative sales correlations with rising gas prices, highlighting a trend where lower-income consumers reduce spending as fuel costs increase.
- Inventory Management Strategy: Despite the risks associated with rising input costs, many global brands, including Amer Sports and Birkenstock, maintain over 200 days of finished goods inventory, which helps mitigate near-term margin pressures and ensures market stability amid supply chain disruptions.
See More
Off-Price Retailers Positioned to Manage Rising Logistics Costs
- Pricing Strategy: According to Bank of America’s industry analysis, off-price retailers like TJX, Ross, and Burlington are leveraging higher Average Unit Retail (AUR) prices to offset margin pressures, maintaining competitiveness amid rising logistics costs.
- Logistics Cost Comparison: Despite diesel prices surging 50% year-over-year to $5.38 per gallon, analysts estimate this will exert approximately 20 basis points of pressure on TJX's gross margins, significantly lower than the 280 basis points peak seen in late 2022, indicating industry resilience.
- Inventory Management Advantage: By focusing on higher-margin units, off-price retailers effectively reduce their
See More
Off-Price Retailers May Face Upgrade Opportunities
- Market Dynamics: Off-price retailers like TJX, Ross Stores, and Burlington Stores may be facing changes in market conditions, although specific financial data and market reactions have not been disclosed, industry analysts generally believe these companies possess resilience amid economic fluctuations.
- Industry Outlook: With increasing consumer demand for discounted goods, these retailers may see sales growth in upcoming quarters, particularly as the appeal of off-price retailers could further strengthen against a backdrop of economic uncertainty.
- Competitive Landscape: While there are currently no specific upgrades or rating changes, the rising analyst attention on off-price retailers suggests that market confidence in their future performance may be increasing, especially as consumer spending shifts towards more cost-effective products.
- Investor Focus: Investors may closely monitor these companies' earnings reports and market performance to assess their adaptability during economic fluctuations and long-term growth potential, although specific financial metrics and analytical data are currently lacking.
See More
Rising Oil Prices Impact Market, Cramer Analyzes Investment Themes
- Oil Price Surge Impact: The ongoing Iran war has driven WTI crude oil prices above $88 per barrel, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, which could pressure the stock market, as evidenced by the S&P 500's slight decline amid a 5% rise in oil prices.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release: President Trump announced the release of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate energy prices, while the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address global supply disruptions, although these measures are seen as temporary fixes.
- Strong Data Center Infrastructure: Cramer highlighted Oracle's robust earnings as validation of the AI-driven data center infrastructure theme, indicating that its buildout is progressing better than expected, potentially offering new opportunities for investors.
- Ongoing Memory Shortage: Commentary from Hewlett Packard Enterprise suggests that the shortage of memory used in AI and computing systems may persist longer than anticipated, providing potential investment opportunities for related companies.
See More
3 ETFs That May Gain as Consumers Cut Back on Spending
Consumer Spending Trends: U.S. consumer spending remains resilient, with higher-income households continuing to spend freely, while lower-income consumers are scaling back due to elevated prices and rising debt.
Shift to Discount Retailers: As many households look to trim expenses, shoppers are increasingly turning to discount chains and warehouse clubs, benefiting retailers like TJX Companies, Ross Stores, and Dollar General.
Investment Opportunities: Analysts suggest that investors can benefit from the shift towards a more price-conscious economy by focusing on ETFs that provide exposure to value-oriented retailers, such as XLV and XRT.
Market Performance: Retail ETFs like RTH and XLY have shown strong performance, with RTH rising nearly 17% over the past year, while also providing significant exposure to major retailers like Amazon and Walmart, which dominate the market.
See More
Burlington Stores' Successful Year Expected to Boost Stock Performance: What's Ahead?
- Santa's Shopping Spree: Santa has been spotted doing extensive shopping at Burlington, suggesting a festive preparation for the holiday season.
- Burlington's Appeal: The store's variety and discounts likely make it a popular choice for holiday shoppers looking for gifts.
- Holiday Spirit: The image of Santa shopping reflects the joyful and giving spirit associated with the Christmas season.
- Community Engagement: This event may encourage local community members to visit Burlington for their holiday shopping needs.
See More
