BlackBerry Beats Earnings but Stock Falls Amid QNX Growth Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy BB?
Source: Newsfilter
- Earnings Beat: BlackBerry reported quarterly earnings exceeding market expectations with revenue of $125 million, indicating ongoing growth in its software and services segment, yet this performance failed to lift the stock price.
- Outlook Raised: The company raised its revenue forecast for the upcoming fiscal year to $500 million, reflecting management's confidence in future growth; however, market reaction was muted due to concerns over slowing QNX growth.
- QNX Growth Concerns: Although QNX remains a core business for BlackBerry, its decelerating growth has raised investor concerns about the company's competitiveness in the automotive software market, potentially impacting long-term shareholder value.
- Cautious Analyst Sentiment: Analysts express a cautious outlook on BlackBerry's future, suggesting that while short-term earnings are strong, long-term growth potential is constrained by QNX performance, which may pressure the stock price.
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Analyst Views on BB
Wall Street analysts forecast BB stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 3.410
Low
4.50
Averages
5.03
High
6.00
Current: 3.410
Low
4.50
Averages
5.03
High
6.00
About BB
BlackBerry Limited is a Canada-based company, which provides enterprises and governments the intelligent software and services. The Company delivers operational resiliency with the certified product portfolio for mobile fortification, mission-critical communications, and critical events management. It operates in three segments: QNX, Secure Communications, and Licensing. The QNX segment consists of the QNX business, BlackBerry Certicom, and BlackBerry Radar. The Secure Communications segment consists of BlackBerry UEM solutions, BlackBerry AtHoc, and BlackBerry SecuSUITE. Its endpoint management platform includes BlackBerry UEM, BlackBerry Dynamics, BlackBerry Workspaces solutions, and BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) Enterprise. The Licensing segment consists of the Company’s intellectual property arrangements and settlement awards. Its BlackBerry Radar is a family of asset monitoring and telematics solutions for the transportation and logistics industry.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Performance Comparison: In stark contrast to the S&P 500 Index's 2% rise year-to-date, BlackBerry's performance highlights increasing competitive pressures in the intelligent security software and services sector.
- Analyst Rating Divergence: While Seeking Alpha's Quant rating system assigned a D+ for profitability prospects, it awarded an A for growth factors, indicating analysts' optimism about future growth potential; however, there is a divergence in market ratings, with six analysts recommending a hold and one analyst issuing a strong sell.
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- Tesla's Challenges: Black highlights that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption rate is only 15%, indicating a lack of consumer awareness regarding its technical superiority, which may hinder its market share growth.
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See More
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- Market Performance Comparison: In stark contrast to the S&P 500 Index's 2% rise year-to-date, BlackBerry's performance highlights increasing competitive pressures in the intelligent security software and services sector.
- Analyst Rating Divergence: While Seeking Alpha's Quant rating system assigned a D+ for profitability prospects, it awarded an A for growth factors, indicating analysts' optimism about future growth potential; however, there is a divergence in market ratings, with six analysts recommending a hold and one analyst issuing a strong sell.
- Financial Outlook Adjustment: BlackBerry raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $541 million, indicating improved growth and cash generation capabilities in the QNX sector, suggesting that despite short-term stock performance issues, long-term growth potential remains a focal point.
See More
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- Earnings Shift: Investor Gary Black highlighted that Tesla shareholders are eager to see positive earnings revisions for 2026 and 2030, as current estimates for Robotaxi and Optimus are negative, potentially putting pressure on the stock price.
- Valuation Challenges: Black noted that Tesla's P/E ratio has surged from 60x in January 2024 to 196x today, and while future growth potential remains strong, such a high valuation complicates earnings calculations, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
- Competitive Risks: He warned that automakers not investing in autonomous vehicles risk facing a 'BlackBerry moment,' meaning they could fall behind in competition, while Tesla's leadership in autonomy may be challenged.
- Partnership Dynamics: Tesla's collaboration with Lemonade to offer a 50% discount on FSD driving, despite criticism, demonstrates Tesla's safety advantages, potentially attracting more consumers, although the market remains cautious about its long-term profitability.
See More
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- Successful Transformation of Nebius: Once a Russian search engine, Nebius has successfully pivoted to a cloud-based AI infrastructure provider, with projected revenue CAGR of 274% from 2025 to 2027 and positive EBITDA expected in 2026, indicating strong market potential.
- Symbotic's Automation Edge: Symbotic provides fully autonomous warehouse robots to Walmart, with a single module investment of $50 million potentially saving $250 million over 25 years, and expected revenue and adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 26% and 68% from 2025 to 2027, showcasing robust profitability.
- Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings: Strategy holds 709,715 Bitcoins valued at $62.8 billion, significantly exceeding its enterprise value of $60.3 billion, highlighting its immense potential in Bitcoin investment, with plans to further increase holdings through its $21 billion equity and fixed-income offerings.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With the rapid growth of AI and automation markets, Nebius, Symbotic, and Strategy all possess unique business models and reasonable valuations, potentially delivering substantial returns for investors over the next decade.
See More
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- Autonomous Driving Capability: Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that vehicles equipped with the AI4 chip will achieve unsupervised driving without hardware upgrades, marking a significant breakthrough in Tesla's autonomous driving technology that could further solidify its market leadership.
- Safety Enhancements: Musk stated that the AI4 chip will reach self-driving safety levels “far above human,” indicating a substantial increase in future Tesla vehicle safety, which is likely to boost consumer confidence and drive sales growth.
- Future Technology Plans: Musk revealed that the AI5 chip is progressing well and plans to revive the Dojo3 project, demonstrating Tesla's ongoing investment in chip development and artificial intelligence, aimed at maintaining a technological edge and enhancing overall competitiveness.
- Industry Warning: Investor Gary Black warned that automakers not investing in autonomous driving technology risk facing a “BlackBerry moment,” emphasizing Tesla's foresight in technological innovation, which may position it advantageously during industry transitions.
See More
Investor Gary Black Warns Automakers Face BlackBerry Moment
- Investment in Autonomy: Gary Black, managing director of the Future Fund, warns that automakers not investing in autonomous driving technology risk facing a 'BlackBerry moment,' which could lead to their obsolescence and loss of competitive edge.
- Tesla's Challenges: Black highlights that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption rate is only 15%, indicating a lack of consumer awareness regarding its technical superiority, which may hinder its market share growth.
- FSD Subscription Model: Tesla plans to offer FSD as a subscription service at $99 per month after Valentine's Day, aiming to boost adoption rates and meet the targets outlined in Musk's $1 trillion pay package.
- Market Reaction: Tesla's stock slipped 0.24% to $437.50 at market close on January 16, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding its future growth potential amid increasing competition.
See More
BlackBerry Options Analysis: Put Contract Yield Boost at 10.29%
- Put Contract Yield: Selling a put contract at a $3.50 strike price allows investors to collect a premium of 36 cents, lowering the cost basis to $3.14, which represents an 11% discount to the current stock price of $3.92, making it attractive for those interested in BB shares.
- Put Contract Risk: Current data indicates a 70% chance that the put contract will expire worthless, which would yield a 10.29% return on cash commitment, or 15.26% annualized, highlighting the potential appeal of this strategy.
- Call Contract Returns: Selling a call contract at a $4.50 strike price could provide a total return of 26.28% based on the current stock price of $3.92, indicating significant upside potential if the stock is called away at expiration.
- Market Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility for the put contract is 80%, while for the call contract it is 64%, contrasting with the actual trailing volatility of 53%, suggesting differing market expectations regarding BB's future price fluctuations, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
