Big Oil Stocks Remain Relatively Unchanged Since the Start of the War. What's Behind This?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 7 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy CVX?
Source: Barron's
Oil Price Surge: Oil prices have increased by 37% since the onset of the Iran war, reaching a significant high by Monday's close.
Oil Stocks Performance: Despite the rise in oil prices, major oil companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP, and Shell have only seen an average stock increase of 1.4% since the war began.
Market Expectations: The minimal movement in big oil stocks contrasts with the common expectation that stock prices of leading oil companies would rise in tandem with oil price increases.
Investor Sentiment: This discrepancy raises questions about investor sentiment and market dynamics in the oil sector amidst geopolitical tensions.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 189.940
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 189.940
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Shifting Market Demand: DCO is essential for specific refineries, and with the Iran conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela's oil exports have become a crucial alternative supply, ensuring stability in the U.S. market.
- Strategic Advantage Emerges: Venezuela's oil exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, mitigating current supply risks, with output expected to rise to 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day by year-end if sanctions are lifted, significantly impacting the global supply outlook.
- Policy Changes Drive Production: A shift in U.S. sanctions policy has allowed Chevron to operate under an indefinite license, and the new Hydrocarbon Law enhances foreign investment, boosting Venezuela's oil production capabilities.
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- Consumer Spending Redirected: As oil prices surge, tax refunds expected to boost consumer spending are likely to be diverted to cover energy costs, with Citadel Securities estimating that only 75% of refunds will be distributed by May 1, dampening growth expectations.
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See More
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- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing hope among investors for a quick resolution to the Iran war, which has been influencing crude oil prices.
- Crude Price Impact: The conflict has led to a significant increase in crude prices over the past week and a half.
- Market Reactions: The fluctuations in oil stocks reflect broader market concerns regarding geopolitical tensions and their economic implications.
See More
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- Declining Refining Capacity: Chevron highlighted that California's refining capacity has already decreased by nearly 18%, with an increasingly hostile policy environment leading to recent refinery closures, exacerbating the crisis in the industry.
- Rising Fuel Prices: The average gasoline price in California has surpassed $5 per gallon, recently rising to around $5.20 due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, with Chevron executives warning that such policies will make living in California increasingly difficult.
See More
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- Oil Price Fluctuations: President Trump warned that Iran would face 'TWENTY TIMES HARDER' consequences if it attempted to halt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, causing market panic and leading to a temporary 10% drop in oil prices.
- G7 Emergency Meeting: G7 energy ministers are set to meet virtually to discuss a potential release of emergency oil reserves to address supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, with previous finance ministers' discussions deemed 'positive' despite no concrete decisions made.
- Role of IEA: The International Energy Agency's Executive Director participated in the G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss the global economic outlook and the intensifying Middle East conflict, noting that IEA member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks that could be released to alleviate supply pressures.
See More
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- Oil Export Resumption: Venezuela has resumed exports of diluted crude oil (DCO) for the first time in 15 months, with Chevron shipping 500,000 barrels to the U.S. Gulf Coast this month, a small volume but significant given the current geopolitical tensions.
- Shifting Market Demand: DCO is essential for specific refineries, and with the Iran conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela's oil exports have become a crucial alternative supply, ensuring stability in the U.S. market.
- Strategic Advantage Emerges: Venezuela's oil exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, mitigating current supply risks, with output expected to rise to 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day by year-end if sanctions are lifted, significantly impacting the global supply outlook.
- Policy Changes Drive Production: A shift in U.S. sanctions policy has allowed Chevron to operate under an indefinite license, and the new Hydrocarbon Law enhances foreign investment, boosting Venezuela's oil production capabilities.
See More
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- Year-to-Date Performance: As of March 9, 2026, the US Oil Fund (USO) has surged 64% year-to-date, contrasting sharply with its 39% return over the past decade, highlighting a significant disparity between short-term volatility and long-term returns.
- Price Fluctuation Drivers: Driven by geopolitical supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf, WTI crude oil prices have risen from $57.21 on January 2 to $71.13 as of March 2, influencing USO's price movements, yet its long-term performance is hampered by the contango phenomenon in the futures market.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: The sentiment score for USO on Reddit stands at 85, primarily fueled by narratives around supply disruptions, although some traders express skepticism about USO's performance, indicating a complex market perception of the fund.
- Cost Structure Impact: USO carries a 0.6% annual expense ratio, but in contango environments, the monthly roll losses can further diminish returns on top of management fees, exposing investors to potential risks of return reversals.
See More
Rising Oil Prices Threaten Economic Stimulus Impact
- Tax Cuts Impacted by Oil Prices: According to Raymond James, a $20 increase in oil prices could negate the benefits of tax cuts from the Trump administration, with consumers potentially spending an additional $150 billion on fuel, undermining the intended economic stimulus.
- Consumer Spending Redirected: As oil prices surge, tax refunds expected to boost consumer spending are likely to be diverted to cover energy costs, with Citadel Securities estimating that only 75% of refunds will be distributed by May 1, dampening growth expectations.
- Uncertain Growth Outlook: While some economists predict that tax cuts will stimulate growth in 2026, the oil price shock could weaken this outlook, particularly against a backdrop of slowing consumer spending and job growth.
- Cautious Market Response: Analysts caution that the current economic environment differs significantly from previous oil price surges, with notable disparities in core inflation and job growth potentially leading to more cautious market expectations for the future.
See More
Occidental and Other Oil Stocks Decline: Implications of a G-7 Reserve Release.
- Oil Stocks Decline: Oil stocks experienced a decline early Tuesday as investors reacted to the ongoing situation in Iran.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing hope among investors for a quick resolution to the Iran war, which has been influencing crude oil prices.
- Crude Price Impact: The conflict has led to a significant increase in crude prices over the past week and a half.
- Market Reactions: The fluctuations in oil stocks reflect broader market concerns regarding geopolitical tensions and their economic implications.
See More
Chevron Raises Concerns Over California's Cap-and-Invest Program
- Policy Impact Warning: Chevron has expressed concerns regarding the California Air Resources Board's proposed amendments to the Cap-and-Invest program, stating that these changes could disrupt energy stability and employment, thereby impacting California's economy and energy security.
- Refining Industry Crisis: The company fears that the new regulations could devastate the remaining refineries in California, leading to a collapse of the entire industry, resulting in higher transportation and aviation fuel prices for consumers, substantial job losses, and decreased funding for critical public services.
- Declining Refining Capacity: Chevron highlighted that California's refining capacity has already decreased by nearly 18%, with an increasingly hostile policy environment leading to recent refinery closures, exacerbating the crisis in the industry.
- Rising Fuel Prices: The average gasoline price in California has surpassed $5 per gallon, recently rising to around $5.20 due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, with Chevron executives warning that such policies will make living in California increasingly difficult.
See More
U.S. Treasury Yields Decline as Oil Prices Plummet
- Treasury Yield Changes: U.S. Treasury yields fell as the 10-year yield dropped nearly 2 basis points to 4.117%, the 30-year bond yield decreased to 4.734%, and the 2-year note yield declined by almost 3 basis points to 3.563%, reflecting market uncertainty about future economic conditions.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: President Trump warned that Iran would face 'TWENTY TIMES HARDER' consequences if it attempted to halt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, causing market panic and leading to a temporary 10% drop in oil prices.
- G7 Emergency Meeting: G7 energy ministers are set to meet virtually to discuss a potential release of emergency oil reserves to address supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, with previous finance ministers' discussions deemed 'positive' despite no concrete decisions made.
- Role of IEA: The International Energy Agency's Executive Director participated in the G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss the global economic outlook and the intensifying Middle East conflict, noting that IEA member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks that could be released to alleviate supply pressures.
See More
