ASML Could Benefit from US-China Meeting on Semiconductor Exports
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy ASML?
Source: seekingalpha
- Export Ban Easing Expectations: Bank of America analysts suggest that ASML could benefit if the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi leads to a relaxation of semiconductor equipment export bans, particularly as China aims to build a domestic semiconductor industry to achieve its 5nm chip manufacturing goals.
- Increased Rare Earth Supply: The analyst noted that both parties might negotiate a relaxation of semiconductor export controls in exchange for increased rare earth supply, recalling that a previous call between Trump and Xi resulted in a rise in rare earth supply, which significantly boosted China's economy in the second half of 2025.
- Market Expectations Rise: Should export controls be relaxed, ASML's valuation may be revised upwards by other Wall Street firms, with the analyst maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of €1,598, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Calls for Industry Replication: Executives in China's semiconductor industry have called for policies that would enable the country to replicate ASML's technology over the next five years, indicating China's ambitions and direct competitive intentions against ASML in the semiconductor sector.
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Analyst Views on ASML
Wall Street analysts forecast ASML stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1357.420
Low
1385
Averages
1583
High
1911
Current: 1357.420
Low
1385
Averages
1583
High
1911
About ASML
ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Financial Performance: TSMC's revenue for 2025 reached $122.42 billion, a 35.9% year-over-year increase, with diluted earnings per share growing by 46%, showcasing robust profitability and cash flow that further solidifies its near-monopoly status.
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Energy Vulnerability: Europe is particularly vulnerable to energy supply disruptions due to its reliance on oil from conflict zones, with the potential for further crises exacerbated by existing supply issues from the war in Ukraine.
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- Production Disruption: The Dutch headquarters of Nexperia has been accused of seriously disrupting normal production operations, impacting the assembly and testing facility in Guangdong, China, and if this situation persists, it could trigger another global semiconductor production and supply chain crisis for which the Netherlands would bear full responsibility.
- Declaration of Independence and Accusations: Following the removal of Wingtech's control, Nexperia's Chinese unit declared itself independent and has exchanged accusations of bad-faith negotiations with its Dutch headquarters, escalating tensions that hinder company-to-company negotiations.
- Diplomatic Negotiations and Accountability: China has criticized the Netherlands for failing to effectively facilitate a compromise from Nexperia's Dutch headquarters or to end court proceedings that transferred Wingtech's shares to a Dutch lawyer in October 2025, highlighting the complex international relations that pose potential threats to the chip industry.
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- New Member Addition: Benjamin Loh is nominated as a new member of the Supervisory Board, bringing over 30 years of global leadership experience in the semiconductor industry, which is expected to provide valuable strategic insights and an international perspective for ASML's long-term strategy development.
- AGM Arrangement: The 2026 Annual General Meeting is scheduled for April 22, where the aforementioned appointments and other significant matters will be discussed, ensuring shareholder engagement and transparency regarding the company's future direction.
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