American Express Shares Plunge Amid AI Job Disruption Fears
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 27 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Sharp Stock Decline: American Express shares fell 7.89% on Friday, bringing the year-to-date decline to approximately 15%, despite no new company-specific disclosures, as fears of AI-induced white-collar job disruptions heightened investor concerns.
- AI Layoff Signal Spooks Market: Block announced significant workforce reductions, with CEO Jack Dorsey attributing it to structural changes driven by AI tools, suggesting that most companies may follow suit, which contributed to the sell-off in credit and payments stocks.
- Strong Business Performance: American Express reported full-year revenue of $72.2 billion for 2025, a 10% year-over-year increase, with a net write-off rate of 2%, indicating that consumer stress is not reflected in the latest financial results, and management expects 9% to 10% revenue growth for 2026.
- Valuation Analysis: Following Friday's sell-off, American Express shares traded around $308.88, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 18 times the midpoint of its 2026 earnings guidance, which, while reasonable for a premium card network, may prompt investors to seek a lower valuation due to concerns over potential job market disruptions from AI.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 301.450
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 301.450
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand powered by technology. Its card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses offer products and services to a broad range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its range of products and services includes credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, lifestyle and expense management products and services; banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, and network services. These products and services are offered through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers, and business partners.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- American Express Market Performance: Berkshire gradually built a 22% stake in American Express between 1991 and 1995, and while the S&P 500 has recently outperformed, American Express is expected to maintain steady profit growth amid economic challenges due to its brand and customer loyalty, with a current P/E ratio of 19 and significant future dividend growth potential.
- Coca-Cola's Steady Returns: Berkshire Hathaway owns 9.3% of Coca-Cola, and since starting its investment in 1988, the total return has been 3,580%, slightly below the S&P 500's 3,700%; however, Coca-Cola's 64 consecutive years of dividend growth provides stable cash flow for Berkshire to support new investments.
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- American Express Resilience: Berkshire built its 22% stake in American Express between 1991 and 1995, and despite economic challenges, the company maintains strong customer loyalty and consistent profit growth, expected to continue outperforming the S&P 500.
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American Express Stock Pullback Reveals Growth Potential
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- Aggressive Buyback Program: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, with approximately $5.3 billion allocated for share repurchases, reducing the share count by about 2%, which directly boosts per-share earnings.
- Strong Pricing Power: By raising the annual fee of its flagship Platinum Card by nearly 30% and enhancing lifestyle benefits, the company successfully attracts younger consumers, demonstrating its pricing power and potential for future growth.
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, aiding in the assessment of market trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets and market dynamics.
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Buffett's Investment Philosophy and Core Holdings
- Apple's Competitive Edge: Berkshire Hathaway holds a 1.6% stake in Apple, valued at approximately $56.4 billion, representing 18.1% of its portfolio, highlighting Apple's strong competitive advantage in customer loyalty and ecosystem; despite a current P/E ratio of 32, long-term earnings growth and buyback commitments may yield stable returns.
- American Express Market Performance: Berkshire gradually built a 22% stake in American Express between 1991 and 1995, and while the S&P 500 has recently outperformed, American Express is expected to maintain steady profit growth amid economic challenges due to its brand and customer loyalty, with a current P/E ratio of 19 and significant future dividend growth potential.
- Coca-Cola's Steady Returns: Berkshire Hathaway owns 9.3% of Coca-Cola, and since starting its investment in 1988, the total return has been 3,580%, slightly below the S&P 500's 3,700%; however, Coca-Cola's 64 consecutive years of dividend growth provides stable cash flow for Berkshire to support new investments.
- Investor Choices: Although Apple is considered a quality stock, it is not included in the Motley Fool analyst team's list of 10 best stocks, indicating a market focus on other potential high-return stocks, suggesting investors should consider diversifying their portfolios for higher yields.
See More
Buffett's Investment Philosophy and Core Holdings
- Apple Investment: Berkshire Hathaway holds a 1.6% stake in Apple, valued at approximately $56.4 billion, representing 18.1% of its portfolio, reflecting the company's confidence in tech stocks despite Buffett's previous reservations.
- American Express Resilience: Berkshire built its 22% stake in American Express between 1991 and 1995, and despite economic challenges, the company maintains strong customer loyalty and consistent profit growth, expected to continue outperforming the S&P 500.
- Coca-Cola's Dividend King Status: Berkshire holds a 9.3% stake in Coca-Cola, and since investing in 1988, the stock has delivered a total return of 3,580%, which, while below the S&P 500, is supported by consistent dividend growth, making it a cornerstone for long-term investment.
- Strategic Significance of Portfolio: Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes acquiring high-quality companies, and although he has retired, new CEO Abel indicates no major changes to core investments, suggesting Berkshire will continue to focus on long-term value investing.
See More
American Express Increases Quarterly Dividend by 16%
- Dividend Increase: American Express has raised its quarterly dividend by 16%, bringing the payout to $0.95 per share, reflecting strong cash flow and a payout ratio below 25%, providing ample room for future dividend hikes.
- Strong Earnings Performance: In 2025, the company reported a 10% revenue increase to $72.2 billion, with earnings per share reaching $15.38, a 15% year-over-year growth, demonstrating robust profitability amid resilient consumer spending.
- Share Buyback Program: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, with approximately $5.3 billion allocated for share repurchases, reducing the share count by about 2%, which directly boosts earnings per share and enhances shareholder returns.
- Market Appeal: Despite a 20% decline in share price since the start of 2026, trading around $300 with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 17, the stock presents an attractive valuation for long-term investors in a high-quality lending institution.
See More
American Express Stock Offers Investment Opportunity Amid Price Decline
- Strong Earnings Performance: American Express reported a 10% revenue increase for 2025, reaching $72.2 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $15.38, a 15% year-over-year growth, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainties and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend Growth and Buybacks: The board approved a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share, with an annualized payout of $3.80 reflecting a low payout ratio under 25%, indicating room for future increases, while $5.3 billion was spent on share repurchases in 2025, reducing the share count by 2% and enhancing per-share earnings.
- Enhanced Pricing Power: By raising the annual fee of its flagship Platinum Card by nearly 30% to $895 and adding various lifestyle perks, American Express successfully attracted younger consumers, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, thereby strengthening customer loyalty and laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Attractive Valuation: With shares trading around $300, the stock is valued at approximately 17 times the midpoint of management's 2026 earnings guidance, presenting an appealing price-to-earnings ratio for a high-quality lender, offering investors a solid entry point despite potential economic downturn risks.
See More
American Express Stock Pullback Reveals Growth Potential
- Strong Earnings Growth: American Express reported a 10% revenue increase for 2025, reaching $72.2 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $15.38, reflecting resilience and profitability amid macroeconomic pressures.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The board approved a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share in March, resulting in a 1.3% dividend yield, indicating strong cash flow that supports future dividend growth.
- Aggressive Buyback Program: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, with approximately $5.3 billion allocated for share repurchases, reducing the share count by about 2%, which directly boosts per-share earnings.
- Strong Pricing Power: By raising the annual fee of its flagship Platinum Card by nearly 30% and enhancing lifestyle benefits, the company successfully attracts younger consumers, demonstrating its pricing power and potential for future growth.
See More
Analysis of XLF ETF's 52-Week Price Fluctuations
- Price Range Analysis: The XLF ETF has a 52-week low of $42.21 and a high of $56.515, with the last trade at $49.09, indicating volatility and shifts in investor sentiment within the current market.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, aiding in the assessment of market trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets and market dynamics.
See More
