Altria Faces Market Share Losses, Stock Declines
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MO?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Market Share Decline: Altria's domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell by 7.9% in Q4, indicating a continued decline in smoking rates in the U.S., which increases competitive pressure on the company.
- Brand Power Erosion: Altria's Marlboro brand saw its retail market share drop to 39.8%, a year-over-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a growing consumer preference for rival products.
- Oral Tobacco Setbacks: Shipment volumes for Altria's oral tobacco products fell by 6.3%, with the on! brand's share in the rapidly growing nicotine pouch category declining by 5.3 percentage points to 13.4%, further indicating the company's struggles in emerging markets.
- Stable Profitability: Despite the drop in shipment volumes, Altria's revenues net of excise taxes declined by less than 1% to $5.1 billion, primarily due to price hikes, but future earnings growth expectations remain challenged.
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Analyst Views on MO
Wall Street analysts forecast MO stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 67.010
Low
57.00
Averages
65.60
High
72.00
Current: 67.010
Low
57.00
Averages
65.60
High
72.00
About MO
Altria Group, Inc. operates a portfolio of tobacco products for United States tobacco consumers aged 21+. Its segments include smokeable products and oral tobacco products. The smokeable products segment consists of combustible cigarettes and machine-made large cigars. The oral tobacco products segment includes moist smokeless tobacco (MST) products and oral nicotine pouches. Its wholly owned subsidiaries include manufacturers of both combustible and smoke-free products. In combustibles, it owns Philip Morris USA Inc. (PM USA), and John Middleton Co. (Middleton), which are cigarette manufacturers. Its smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC (USSTC), a global MST manufacturer, Helix Innovations LLC (Helix), a manufacturer of oral nicotine pouches, and NJOY, LLC (NJOY), an e-vapor manufacturer with a commercialized product portfolio. The brand portfolios of its operating companies include Marlboro, Black & Mild, Copenhagen, Skoal, on! and NJOY.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Registration Requirement: Attendees must register in advance to listen to the webcast, with registration details posted on Altria's official website, ensuring transparency and convenience for participants.
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- Stable Dividend Returns: With a forward dividend yield of 2.6% and 63 consecutive years of dividend increases, Coca-Cola demonstrates the advantages of its capital-light business model, ensuring stable margins and ample cash flow to support dividend payments.
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- Strong Dividend Appeal: Altria offers a forward dividend yield of 6.3% and has raised its dividend 60 times over the past 56 years, with adjusted EPS growth anticipated at 2.5%-5.5% in 2026, making it a reliable safe-haven stock.
See More
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- Investor Sentiment: Investors are concerned that advancements in AI, such as ChatGPT, may negatively impact service-oriented businesses while benefiting manufacturers of household products.
See More
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- Importance of Dividends: According to S&P Global, dividends have accounted for 31% of total stock market returns since 1926, highlighting their crucial role in long-term investing, allowing investors to focus on fundamentals while ignoring stock price fluctuations.
- Coca-Cola's Stability: As a blue-chip stock, Coca-Cola continues to deliver dividends with a third-quarter revenue growth of 5% year-over-year to $12.5 billion, demonstrating its strong resilience and profitability amid economic fluctuations.
- Philip Morris' Transformation: Philip Morris has pivoted to smoke-free products, which now account for 41% of its sales across 100 global markets, significantly expanding its distribution network following the $16 billion acquisition of Swedish Match in 2022, enhancing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Yield Comparison: Coca-Cola offers a dividend yield of 2.71%, while Philip Morris boasts a yield of 3.3%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.14%, showcasing their strong capabilities in returning value to investors.
See More
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- Market Growth Potential: The global nicotine pouch market is projected to reach $25.4 billion by 2030, indicating a rapid shift in consumer demand towards portable, liquid-free formats, thus providing significant market opportunities for related companies.
- Doseology Innovation: Doseology Sciences began pilot production of nicotine-free caffeine energy pouches in January 2026, utilizing a portable design to meet health-conscious consumers' demand for functional products, which is expected to significantly enhance its market competitiveness.
- Altria Financial Performance: Altria Group reported full-year net revenues of $23.3 billion for 2025, with a 4.4% growth in adjusted diluted EPS, returning $8 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, showcasing its ongoing growth and strong financial health in the smoke-free product sector.
- GURU New Product Launch: GURU Organic Energy launched a new zero-sugar flavor containing 140 mg of natural caffeine, further expanding its product lineup to meet consumer demand for healthy beverages while enhancing brand visibility through digital marketing campaigns.
See More
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- Market Growth Potential: The global nicotine pouch market is projected to reach $25.4 billion by 2030, with a 29.6% annual growth rate, indicating a rapid shift in consumer demand towards portable, liquid-free formats, thereby providing significant market opportunities for related companies.
- Doseology Innovation: Doseology Sciences began pilot production of caffeine-based energy pouches in January 2026, launching the Feed That Brain brand to meet consumer demand for sugar-free, portable energy products, with a small direct-to-consumer test expected to gather feedback and drive subsequent commercialization.
- Altria Financial Performance: Altria Group reported an adjusted diluted EPS of $5.42 for the full year 2025, representing a 4.4% growth, while returning $8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, showcasing the company's strategic progress and strong financial performance in the smoke-free product sector.
- GURU New Product Launch: GURU Organic Energy launched a new zero-sugar flavor, GURU Zero Dragon Fruit Cherry Sorbet, featuring 140 mg of natural organic caffeine, further expanding its product lineup to meet consumer demand for healthy beverages while enhancing brand visibility through digital marketing campaigns.
See More
Altria to Host Webcast at New York Conference
- Webcast Announcement: Altria will host a webcast on February 18, 2026, during the Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference in Orlando, Florida, starting at approximately 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, showcasing its business strategies.
- Executive Participation: The webcast will feature presentations by CEO Billy Gifford and CFO Sal Mancuso, highlighting the company's future business direction and financial performance, aimed at bolstering investor confidence.
- Registration Requirement: Attendees must register in advance to listen to the webcast, with registration details posted on Altria's official website, ensuring transparency and convenience for participants.
- Replay Availability: After the live event, Altria will provide an archived version of the webcast on its website, allowing investors who could not attend in real-time to access the information, further enhancing communication efficiency between the company and its investors.
See More
