UGP Earnings

UGP reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-11-12, showcasing a revenue of 37.09B against an estimate of 35.56B, resulting in a 4.29% surprise. The EPS was 0, surpassing the expected 0.09 by 0%. The stock experienced a -2.06% price change on the earnings day and a -6.42% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following UGP's FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-11-12, the stock price moved by -2.06% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -6.42% change. Historically, UGP's stock price tends to shift by an average of -1.67% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -1% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2026/Q1, analysts estimate UGP's annual revenue to reach 32.60B, while the EPS is projected at . These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised upward by 0.08% and EPS estimates unchanged by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between UGP's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were revised upward by 0.08%, while EPS estimates moved unchanged by 0%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, UGP's stock price typically moves by -1.67% in the 10 days before its earnings and -1% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2026/Q1 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of and revenue of 32.60B.

The earnings call highlights positive financial metrics, such as increased operating cash generation, improved EBITDA for Ultragaz and Hidrovias, and strategic focus on operational excellence. Despite a decrease in Ultracargo's EBITDA, the overall financial health appears strong with a stable leverage ratio. The Q&A indicates management's confidence in market recovery and operational improvements, although there are some uncertainties regarding Ipiranga's divestment rumors. The market cap indicates moderate sensitivity, suggesting a positive stock reaction within the next two weeks.