PGR Should I Buy
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Progressive Corp (PGR) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term focus at this moment. While the company has shown strong financial performance and remains fundamentally sound, the technical indicators, options sentiment, and recent analyst ratings suggest a cautious approach. Additionally, the lack of significant trading signals and recent selling activity by Congress members further supports a hold recommendation.
The MACD is positive and expanding, indicating potential upward momentum. However, the RSI is neutral at 50.392, and the moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its pivot level of 204.447, with resistance at 209.398 and support at 199.496, suggesting limited immediate upside potential.
Strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue up 12.19% YoY and net income up 25.23% YoY.
Operating EPS of $18.27 for 2025 exceeded expectations.
Hedge funds increased their positions in Progressive as of December 31, 2025.
Bearish moving averages and neutral RSI suggest limited technical momentum.
Congress members have shown a cautious stance, with 4 sale transactions and no purchases in the last 90 days.
Analysts have recently lowered price targets, reflecting concerns about competitive pressures and higher expense ratios.
Options sentiment is bearish, with a high Put-Call Ratio.
Progressive Corp delivered strong financial results in Q4 2025, with revenue increasing by 12.19% YoY to $22.738 billion, net income rising by 25.23% YoY to $2.951 billion, and EPS growing by 25.19% YoY to $5.02. These results highlight the company's strong operational performance and profitability.
Analyst sentiment is mixed. While some firms maintain a Buy rating (e.g., BofA, Citi, UBS), most have lowered their price targets, citing competitive pressures, higher expense ratios, and a challenging cyclical backdrop for the insurance sector. The average price target remains above the current price, but the downward revisions suggest caution.
