MAT Should I Buy
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Mattel Inc (MAT) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock is currently facing significant headwinds, including weak Q4 earnings, a dismal 2026 forecast, and multiple downgrades from analysts. While the CEO's recent share purchase and the company's strategic shift towards digital initiatives are positive, the overall sentiment and financial performance suggest caution. Holding off on investment until clearer growth trends emerge would be a prudent approach.
The technical indicators show bearish momentum. The MACD is negative and expanding downward, RSI is at 10.122 indicating an oversold condition, and moving averages are converging, signaling indecision. The stock is trading near its support level of 16.169, with a potential downside to 14.343 if bearish momentum persists.
CEO Ynon Kreizac's purchase of 65,000 shares, signaling confidence in the company's future.
Revenue growth of 7.29% YoY in Q4
Strategic acquisition of Mattel163 mobile game studio to enhance digital competitiveness.
Significant Q4 earnings miss and weak 2026 guidance.
Downgrades from multiple analysts, including JPMorgan and Citi, with reduced price targets.
Hedge funds are selling, with a 2986.19% increase in selling activity last quarter.
Declining gross margin (-9.54% YoY) and net income (-24.61% YoY).
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 7.29% YoY to $1.77 billion. However, net income dropped by 24.61% YoY to $106.2 million, and EPS fell by 19.05% YoY to $0.34. Gross margin also declined by 9.54% YoY to 45.97%, reflecting rising costs and operational inefficiencies.
Analyst sentiment is predominantly negative. Multiple firms, including JPMorgan, Citi, and Roth Capital, have downgraded the stock, citing weak Q4 performance, a challenging 2026 outlook, and limited near-term growth visibility. Price targets have been significantly reduced, with the lowest at $14 and the highest at $19.
