CENX Should I Buy
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Century Aluminum Co (CENX) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. Despite positive analyst ratings and potential catalysts such as reduced aluminum supply and elevated Midwest premiums, the company's weak financial performance, significant insider and hedge fund selling, and lack of strong proprietary trading signals suggest caution. Holding the stock or waiting for a more favorable entry point is recommended.
The technical indicators show a bullish trend with MACD positively expanding and moving averages in a bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). However, RSI at 76.01 is in the neutral zone, providing no clear signal. The stock is trading near its resistance level (R1: 61.4, R2: 65.613).
Analysts have raised price targets, with Wells Fargo and B. Riley projecting prices of $69 and $68, respectively, citing strong EBITDA guidance and aluminum supply deficits.
Reduced production by Aluminium Bahrain and geopolitical tensions could lead to higher aluminum prices.
The Trump administration's tariff reduction on finished metal products may benefit Century Aluminum's operations.
Significant insider and hedge fund selling, with insider selling up 4851.15% and hedge fund selling up 1267.52%.
Weak financial performance in Q4 2025, with net income and EPS dropping by over 95% YoY.
No recent congress trading data or strong proprietary trading signals to support a buy decision.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased slightly by 0.44% YoY to $633.7M, but net income dropped by 95.33% YoY to $2M, and EPS fell by 95.35% YoY to 0.02. Gross margin improved by 53.73% YoY to 12.99%, but overall profitability remains weak.
Analysts are bullish on the stock, with recent upgrades in price targets from Wells Fargo ($69) and B. Riley ($68). Both firms highlight strong EBITDA guidance, elevated Midwest premiums, and favorable aluminum supply-demand dynamics as key drivers for future growth.
