VST Valuation

Vistra Corp

Add to Watchlist

Advanced Chart

195.120

+5.04(2.652%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

VST Relative Valuation

VST's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, VST is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Vistra Corp (VST) is now in the Overvalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 2.68 is considered Overvalued compared with the five-year average of 12.71. The fair price of Vistra Corp (VST) is between 65.85 to 155.49 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 195.12 USD , Vistra Corp is Overvalued By 25.49%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

65.85-155.49

Current Price：195.12

25.49%

Overvalued

24.30

Trailing

Forward

12.61

EV/EBITDA

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a current EV/EBITDA of 12.61. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 7.81. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 3.14, Undervalued between 3.14 and 5.47, Fairly Valued between 10.15 and 5.47, Overvalued between 10.15 and 12.48, and Strongly Overvalued above 12.48. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 12.61 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

22.02

EV/EBIT

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a current EV/EBIT of 22.02. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 11.43. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -80.74, Undervalued between -80.74 and -34.66, Fairly Valued between 57.51 and -34.66, Overvalued between 57.51 and 103.60, and Strongly Overvalued above 103.60. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 22.02 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

2.68

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a current PS of 2.68. The 5-year average PS is 1.13. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.41, Undervalued between -0.41 and 0.36, Fairly Valued between 1.90 and 0.36, Overvalued between 1.90 and 2.67, and Strongly Overvalued above 2.67. The current Forward PS of 2.68 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

11.26

P/OCF

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a current P/OCF of 11.26. The 5-year average P/OCF is 5.43. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.23, Undervalued between -0.23 and 2.60, Fairly Valued between 8.26 and 2.60, Overvalued between 8.26 and 11.09, and Strongly Overvalued above 11.09. The current Forward P/OCF of 11.26 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

18.48

P/FCF

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a current P/FCF of 18.48. The 5-year average P/FCF is 7.95. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -1.64, Undervalued between -1.64 and 3.16, Fairly Valued between 12.75 and 3.16, Overvalued between 12.75 and 17.55, and Strongly Overvalued above 17.55. The current Forward P/FCF of 18.48 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

Vistra Corp (VST) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 28.09. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 9.17 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 206.22% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 6.11, the current P/B ratio is about 360.07% higher. Vistra Corp (VST) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 2.57%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 7.04%, the current FCF yield is approximately -63.52% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 5.86% , the current FCF yield is about -56.22% lower.

28.09

P/B

Median3y

9.17

Median5y

6.11

2.57

FCF Yield

Median3y

7.04

Median5y

5.86

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for VST's competitors is 2.68, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Vistra Corp Corp (VST) exhibits a P/S ratio of 2.68, which is -0.14% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 4.81%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

American Electric Power Company Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of VST increased by 129.31% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from 11.84 to 30.50.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 4.81%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of VST in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

4.81%

3.60B → 3.77B

Revenue Growth

-33.15%

12.97 → 8.67

Margin Expansion

157.65%

11.84 → 30.50

P/E Change

129.31%