VST Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how VST performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, VST sees a -4.43% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.91% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.50%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
VST Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
5.11B
77.29%
17.51%
Gross Margin
54.92%
131.24%
42.72%
Operating Margin
32.67%
1081.08%
120.15%
Net Margin
9.60%
250.23%
-77.29%
EPS
1.13
282.26%
-78.48%
No Data Available
VST Earnings Analysis
Vistra Corp Corporation (VST.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Financial Performance: Vistra achieved a full year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 million, exceeding the top end of their original guidance range, demonstrating strong financial performance despite mild weather conditions.
Strategic Acquisition Expansion: The company successfully closed on a unique acquisition, adding three new nuclear sites and one million retail customers, which enhances their operational capacity and market presence.
Retail Business Performance Surge: Vistra's retail business reached performance levels not seen in the past two decades, indicating significant growth and operational success in competitive markets.
2025 EBITDA Guidance Reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, showing confidence in future performance.
Capital Return Strategy: Vistra's capital return plan has returned approximately $5.9 billion to investors since its inception, with plans to return at least $2 billion through share repurchases in 2025 and 2026.
Renewable Energy Expansion: The company completed and brought online two solar and energy storage facilities, contributing to their renewable capacity and supporting contracts with major clients like Amazon and Microsoft.
Operational Efficiency Metrics: Vistra's generation team achieved a commercial availability rate of approximately 95% for their gas and coal fleet, and a capacity factor of 92% for their nuclear fleet, reflecting operational efficiency.
Capacity Expansion Strategy: The company is positioned to deliver significant capacity additions in key markets, including gas uprates and the conversion of coal plants to gas, enhancing reliability and meeting load growth.
Share Repurchase Impact: Vistra's share repurchase program has reduced shares outstanding by approximately 30%, leading to a 48% increase in dividends per share since Q4 2021, benefiting shareholders.
Negative
Weather Impact on Energy Demand: Despite strong overall performance, Vistra faced challenges due to mostly mild weather in key markets, which impacted energy demand and pricing.
Battery Storage Fire Impact: The Moss Landing site experienced a fire at its Phase 1 battery storage facility, leading to operational uncertainties and potential insurance recoveries of up to $500 million.
Grid Reliability Concerns: Regulatory and legislative uncertainties in both PJM and ERCOT markets have raised concerns about grid reliability and the ability to meet growing load demands.
Market Reform Delays Impact Generators: Delays in market reforms and capacity auction approvals have created difficulties for generators in responding to load growth and maintaining system-wide reserve margins.
Gas Peaker Construction Delays: The company acknowledged that while they are positioned for growth, the ultimate decision on new gas peaker construction will depend on economic conditions and market reforms, indicating potential delays in capacity additions.
VST FAQs
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VST Earning Call Sentiment
Vistra Corp. (VST) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
VST.N
-3.22%Positive
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, with raised guidance for 2024 and 2025 EBITDA and free cash flow, a significant dividend increase, and a robust share repurchase program. Concerns about operational risks and regulatory clarity were addressed, with management expressing confidence in market stabilization. The positive financial outlook and shareholder return plans outweigh the uncertainties, suggesting a positive stock price movement in the short term.
