VST Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how VST performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, VST sees a -7.72% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.31% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +2.20%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
VST Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
4.34B
-9.33%
20.69%
Gross Margin
38.48%
-20.10%
-11.54%
Operating Margin
14.84%
-53.83%
-5.12%
Net Margin
42.28%
303.44%
225.98%
EPS
5.25
320.00%
483.33%
No Data Available
VST Earnings Analysis
Vistra Corp. Corporation (VST.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Increase: 1. Strong Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Vistra raised its 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, with a midpoint above the previous upper end of the range, reflecting strong operational performance.
Free Cash Flow Guidance Increase: 2. Increased Free Cash Flow Guidance: The company also raised its ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow guidance for 2024 to a range of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion, indicating improved cash generation capabilities.
Share Repurchase Strategy: 3. Significant Share Repurchases: In Q3 2024, Vistra repurchased approximately $400 million of shares at an average price of $83 per share, contributing to a total of about $3.5 billion allocated to share repurchases at a significant discount to recent share prices.
Operational Excellence Achieved: 4. High Commercial Availability: The generation team achieved an impressive overall commercial availability of approximately 96% for the gas and coal fleet, and a capacity factor of approximately 98% for the nuclear fleet, showcasing operational excellence.
Energy Harbor Contribution: 5. Positive Contribution from Energy Harbor: The inclusion of Energy Harbor in Q3 results contributed approximately $165 million to generation and $35 million to retail, enhancing overall financial performance.
Negative
Weather-Related Earnings Decline: 1. Weather Impact: The third quarter did not benefit from the same weather opportunities as last year, which added approximately $300 million to earnings in Q3 2023, indicating a significant decline in earnings potential due to milder weather conditions.
Wholesale Price Decline: 2. Lower Wholesale Prices: Despite solid operational performance, the company faced lower cleared wholesale prices compared to last year, which negatively impacted revenue generation.
Rising Power Expenses: 3. Increased Power Costs: The retail segment experienced higher power costs compared to 2023, which could pressure margins and overall profitability moving forward.
Capacity Auction Delay Impact: 4. Delayed Capacity Auction: The delay in the 2026, 2027 PJM capacity auction introduces uncertainty regarding future revenue and operational planning, potentially affecting earnings forecasts.
Net Leverage Concerns: 5. Net Debt Increase: Net leverage is expected to move slightly above 3 times ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA with the closing of the Vistra Vision 15% minority interest purchase, indicating a potential strain on financial flexibility.
VST FAQs
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VST Earning Call Sentiment
Vistra Corp. (VST) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
VST.N
-28.27%Positive
The earnings call summary shows strong financial metrics with raised guidance and significant shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends. The Q&A reveals some concerns about market uncertainties and resource adequacy, but these are balanced by strategic positioning and positive interest in assets. The overall sentiment is positive due to strong capital allocation and optimistic financial projections.