Earning Analysis
Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Vistra Corp(VST) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Vistra Corp earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.
Earnings Forecast
Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate
Surprise Analysis
| FY2025Q3 | 2025-11-06 | Pre-Market | 1.20 | 1.75 | +45.83 | 6.18B | 4.97B | -19.53 | -2.52 | -5.40 |
| FY2025Q2 | 2025-08-07 | Pre-Market | 0.98 | 0.92 | -6.12 | 4.74B | 4.25B | -10.42 | +2.36 | +4.34 |
| FY2025Q1 | 2025-05-07 | Pre-Market | 0.46 | 0.45 | -2.17 | 4.55B | 3.93B | -13.53 | -3.66 | +0.89 |
| FY2024Q4 | 2025-02-27 | Pre-Market | 2.17 | 2.38 | +9.68 | 3.91B | 4.04B | +3.17 | -12.27 | -14.39 |
| FY2024Q2 | 2024-08-08 | Pre-Market | 1.59 | 1.38 | -13.21 | 3.96B | 3.85B | -3.01 | +6.94 | +7.17 |
| - | 2024-05-09 | - | 0.62 | 0.23 | -62.90 | - | - | - | +4.45 | +8.64 |
| FY2023Q4 | 2024-02-28 | - | 0.54 | -0.48 | -188.89 | 3.47B | 3.08B | -11.31 | +4.00 | +15.52 |
| FY2023Q3 | 2023-11-07 | - | 2.02 | 1.25 | -38.12 | 5.08B | 4.09B | -19.61 | -1.64 | -2.63 |
| FY2023Q2 | 2023-08-09 | - | 0.82 | 1.03 | +25.61 | 2.80B | 3.19B | +13.70 | +5.17 | +4.93 |
| - | 2023-05-09 | - | -0.10 | -0.40 | -300.00 | - | - | - | +5.22 | +6.07 |
VST Earnings Analysis
Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Vistra Corp reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-11-06. The company achieved an EPS of 1.75, compared to analyst estimates of 1.20 by 45.83% . Revenue for the quarter reached 4.97B compared to expectations of 6.18B by -19.53% .
The stock price reacted with a -2.52% one-day change and a -5.40% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Vistra Corp growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.
VST Earnings Forecast
Looking ahead, Vistra Corp(VST) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 5.65B and an EPS of 2.99.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Downward by -2.78%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Downward by -2.69%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Upward by 22.09% . These revisions correlate with a -6.35% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Vistra Corp long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.
Estimate Revision
The chart shows the correlation between VST's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
-2.78%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
-2.69%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Upward
+22.09%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Down
-6.35%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:19.73B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:6.41
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Stock Price176.07
VST Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective
Vistra Corp revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-11-06,Pre-Market):
EPS: 1.75 (Actual) vs.1.20 (Estimate) (45.83%)
Revenue: 4.97B (Actual) vs. 6.18B (Estimate) (-19.53%)
Price Reaction: -2.52%(1-Day), -5.40%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-07,Pre-Market):
EPS: 0.92 (Actual) vs.0.98 (Estimate) (-6.12%)
Revenue: 4.25B (Actual) vs. 4.74B (Estimate) (-10.42%)
Price Reaction: 2.36%(1-Day), 4.34%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-07,Pre-Market):
EPS: 0.45 (Actual) vs.0.46 (Estimate) (-2.17%)
Revenue: 3.93B (Actual) vs. 4.55B (Estimate) (-13.53%)
Price Reaction: -3.66%(1-Day), 0.89%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how VST performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, VST sees a -5.38% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.95% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.81%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 3.46% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -5.87% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
Transcript Summary
Vistra Corp (VST) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-11-06
The earnings call highlights a strategic acquisition, strong growth in customer count, and high fleet availability, which are positive indicators. The reaffirmed guidance and increased targets for 2026 suggest a strong outlook. However, management's reluctance to quantify future growth rates and hedging details introduces some uncertainty. The positive aspects outweigh the negatives, leading to a 'Positive' sentiment.
Vistra Corp (VST) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-08-07
The earnings call summary presents mixed signals. While there are positive aspects such as reaffirmed EBITDA guidance, hedging stability, and growth in renewable projects, there are also concerns like management's vague responses and lack of specific details on deals and regulatory impacts. The Q&A session revealed uncertainties regarding regulatory clarity and market dynamics, which could offset the optimistic guidance. Without a market cap, it's challenging to predict the impact, but the overall sentiment appears balanced, leading to a neutral outlook for the stock price movement.
Vistra Corp (VST) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-05-07
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with a significant increase in EBITDA, a robust share repurchase program, and a substantial dividend increase. The Q&A section reveals some uncertainties, particularly regarding regulatory outcomes and future guidance, but overall sentiment remains positive due to strong shareholder returns and strategic capacity additions. The company's proactive market strategy and commitment to renewable energy projects further support a positive outlook. Despite some risks and uncertainties, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
Vistra Corp (VST) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-02-27
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, with raised guidance for 2024 and 2025 EBITDA and free cash flow, a significant dividend increase, and a robust share repurchase program. Concerns about operational risks and regulatory clarity were addressed, with management expressing confidence in market stabilization. The positive financial outlook and shareholder return plans outweigh the uncertainties, suggesting a positive stock price movement in the short term.
Vistra Corp. (VST) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-11-07
The earnings call summary shows strong financial metrics with raised guidance and significant shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends. The Q&A reveals some concerns about market uncertainties and resource adequacy, but these are balanced by strategic positioning and positive interest in assets. The overall sentiment is positive due to strong capital allocation and optimistic financial projections.
Vistra Corp. (VST) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-08-08
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, including a 40% YoY improvement in EBITDA and significant share repurchases, signaling confidence in the company's financial health. The Q&A session revealed management's optimism about market conditions and future growth opportunities, despite some uncertainties in pricing and project timelines. The positive sentiment is reinforced by increased EBITDA guidance and ongoing strategic investments. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to experience a positive movement over the next two weeks.
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FAQ
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