The chart below shows how LNG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, LNG sees a -2.20% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.00% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.44%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Strong Financial Results: 1. Strong Financial Performance: Cheniere generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion and distributable cash flow of approximately $820 million in Q3 2024, reflecting robust operational execution.
2024 EBITDA Guidance Increase: 2. Increased Guidance for 2024: The company raised its full-year guidance for consolidated adjusted EBITDA to a range of $6 billion to $6.3 billion, driven by better-than-expected production and incremental margin.
Share Repurchase Program: 3. Significant Share Repurchases: Cheniere repurchased nearly $300 million of stock during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to approximately $2 billion, which represents about 10% of its outstanding shares since the initiation of its buyback program.
Dividend Growth Commitment: 4. Dividend Increase: The company increased its third-quarter dividend by 15% to $2 per share annualized, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
LNG Production Milestone: 5. Milestone in LNG Production: Cheniere produced and exported 158 LNG cargoes during the quarter, including the milestone 1,000th LNG cargo from Corpus Christi, reinforcing its reputation as a reliable LNG operator.
Negative
Decreased LNG Imports: 1. Declining Customer Demand: European LNG imports were down over 20% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in demand amidst stable gas fundamentals and mild winters.
Rising Production Costs: 2. Increased Production Costs: The company acknowledged that EPC costs for new projects have risen dramatically, which could impact future profitability and project viability.
Future Guidance Uncertainty: 3. Uncertain Future Guidance: The guidance for 2025 remains uncertain due to potential changes in tax codes and the timing of cargo deliveries, which could affect cash flow and earnings.
Commissioning Process Uncertainty: 4. Operational Risks: The commissioning process for Stage 3 trains is described as uncertain, with potential delays impacting production and financial results in 2025.
Market Volatility Exposure: 5. High Exposure to Market Volatility: The company has approximately 100 to 150 TBtu of open exposure for 2025, which could lead to significant financial variability depending on market conditions.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
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