TSCO Should I Buy
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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor. The stock is facing multiple headwinds, including bearish technical indicators, declining financial performance, and mixed analyst ratings. While hedge funds are buying, insider selling and lack of recent positive news or catalysts suggest caution. Given the investor's preference for long-term growth, it would be prudent to wait for clearer signs of recovery or improved fundamentals before investing.
The technical indicators for TSCO are bearish. The MACD histogram is negative (-0.33) and contracting, the RSI is neutral at 29.539, and the moving averages are in a bearish formation (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its support level (S1: 49.943), with resistance levels at R1: 53.832 and R2: 55.033. The overall trend suggests further downside risk in the short term.
Hedge funds are significantly increasing their buying activity, with a 15983.33% increase over the last quarter. Analysts like Piper Sandler and Citi maintain a long-term positive outlook, suggesting the business could recover to a 3%-plus comp growth over time.
Insiders are selling heavily, with a 1295.87% increase in selling activity over the last month. Analysts have broadly lowered price targets, citing weak Q4 results, margin pressures, and a challenging consumer environment. The company's guidance for 2026 is below expectations, and there are no recent news-driven catalysts.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 3.31% YoY to $3.898 billion, but net income dropped by 3.81% YoY to $227.4 million. EPS also declined by 2.27% YoY to $0.43, and gross margin fell slightly to 31.86%, down 0.59% YoY. These figures indicate slowing growth and margin pressures.
Analysts have lowered their price targets across the board, with the current range between $53 and $61. Ratings are mixed, with some maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings while others have downgraded to Neutral or Hold. Analysts highlight weak Q4 results, pressured consumer spending, and a lack of near-term catalysts as concerns.
