Technical Analysis: Based on the latest data, TCOM closed at $71.52 on January 24, 2025, showing a strong upward momentum with a 5.18% gain during regular trading hours. The stock is currently trading above both its 20-day moving average of $67.27 and 200-day moving average of $55.50, indicating a bullish long-term trend.
The RSI-14 reading of 59.86 suggests the stock is in a neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further upside. The MACD indicator shows a slight bearish divergence at -0.03, suggesting potential short-term consolidation.
Fibonacci Analysis: Key levels for next week:
News Sentiment Analysis: Recent news indicates positive momentum:
Price Prediction for Next Week: Based on technical indicators and news sentiment:
Rationale:
The stock shows strong potential to continue its upward trajectory next week, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. The recommended strategy is to buy at current levels with a tight stop loss below $69.50 to manage risk.
The price of TCOM is predicted to go up -0.1%, based on the high correlation periods with HIW. The similarity of these two price pattern on the periods is 97.37%.
TCOM
HIW
The number of Chinese passport holders is only about 10%-15% of the population, which should provide Trip.com with secular demand given the low saturation.
International and outbound business will eventually recover and drive margins upwards. Margin expansion will be dictated by its higher-margin businesses, including international air and hotels.
The industry will see less competition in the future than before due to current headwinds faced, and thus lesser disruptions to its long-term business plan.
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