TCOM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TCOM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TCOM sees a -2.82% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.49% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.13%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TCOM Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
12.74B
23.43%
-19.71%
Gross Margin
79.28%
-1.55%
-3.74%
Operating Margin
18.06%
-15.13%
-42.74%
Net Margin
17.19%
32.23%
-60.00%
EPS
3.09
58.46%
-68.88%
No Data Available
TCOM Earnings Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd Corporation (TCOM.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Travel Market Performance: Trip.com Group achieved a GMV of over RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 169 billion) in 2024, indicating strong performance in the travel market.
Q4 Revenue Growth: Net revenue in Q4 grew by 23% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength in travel demand.
Travel Revenue Resilience: For the full year of 2024, total net revenue increased by 20%, showcasing resilience in travel consumption.
Outbound Travel Recovery: Outbound travel bookings have recovered to over 120% compared to 2019, outperforming the industry by 30% to 40%.
Domestic Travel Surge: In 2024, China saw 5.6 billion domestic trips, highlighting the essential role of travel in daily life.
Inbound Travel Surge: Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com platforms increased by over 100% year-over-year, with visa-free country bookings rising by over 150%.
User Engagement Surge: TripGenie saw a traffic surge of 200%, indicating strong user engagement with AI tools.
Free City Tours Initiative: The company launched free city tours for international travelers, enhancing the travel experience and promoting inbound tourism.
Booking Growth Surge: Trip.com Group's international OTA platform saw air ticket and hotel bookings grow by over 70% year-over-year, with APAC bookings rising around 80%.
Customer Service Accolades: The company received multiple accolades for customer service, including Contact Center of the Year and Asia’s leading online travel agency 2024.
Senior Travel Initiative: The Old Friends Club initiative targets travelers aged 50 and above, catering to a growing demographic with higher purchasing power.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was RMB 3.0 billion, showing growth compared to the previous year, and for the full year, it was RMB 17.1 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year.
Share Repurchase and Dividend: The company announced a share repurchase program of up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend of approximately USD 200 million, reflecting a strong financial position.
Negative
Q4 Revenue Decline: Net revenue for Q4 decreased by 20% compared to the previous quarter, indicating potential seasonal fluctuations or market challenges.
Accommodation Revenue Decline: Accommodation reservation revenue saw a 24% decrease quarter-over-quarter, suggesting a decline in demand or competitive pressures in the market.
Transportation Ticketing Decline: Transportation ticketing revenue also experienced a 15% decrease quarter-over-quarter, which may reflect a slowdown in travel activity or increased competition.
Packaged Tour Revenue Decline: Packaged tour revenue dropped by 44% quarter-over-quarter, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth in this segment.
Rising Product Development Costs: Adjusted product development expenses increased by 18% year-over-year, indicating rising costs that could impact profitability if not managed effectively.
Rising G&A Expenses: Adjusted G&A expenses rose by 24% year-over-year, which could signal inefficiencies or increased operational costs that need to be addressed.
Increased Marketing Investment: Adjusted sales and marketing expenses increased by 45% year-over-year, suggesting a significant investment in marketing that may not yet be yielding proportional returns.
Revenue Volatility Analysis: Despite a year-over-year growth in revenue, the overall financial performance showed signs of volatility, particularly in quarter-over-quarter comparisons.
TCOM FAQs
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TCOM Earning Call Sentiment
Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
TCOM.O
-2.41%Positive
The earnings call reveals strong year-over-year revenue growth and a solid financial position, with a notable increase in accommodation and transportation ticketing revenue. The Q&A section highlights positive travel demand trends and AI integration potential. The share repurchase program and dividend payouts further bolster investor confidence. While there are some concerns about margin targets and vague responses on inbound travel, the overall sentiment remains positive, indicating a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8% in the next two weeks.
