Should I Buy NOG? NOG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NOG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

24.440

1 Day change

-3.44%

52 Week Range

36.410

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price action/technicals are neutral-to-slightly constructive, but there’s no strong proprietary buy signal and recent quarter fundamentals deteriorated materially.
Near-term upside exists (options flow leans bullish and pattern-based stats skew positive), but the risk/reward is not compelling enough to justify an impatient “buy now” stance ahead of the 2025/Q4 earnings on 2026-02-25.
If already holding: this is a hold into the next setup/earnings catalyst rather than an add here; if not holding: avoid initiating until a cleaner technical break above ~25.48 (R1) or a post-earnings confirmation.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.155) but contracting, signaling bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI(6)=54.8: neutral—no clear oversold bounce setup and no overbought exhaustion.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest consolidation/chop rather than a trending tape.
Key levels: Pivot 24.35 is immediate battleground; support at 23.23 (S1) then 22.54 (S2). Resistance at 25.48 (R1) then 26.17 (R2).
Context: stock is down ~2.9% today while S&P 500 is down ~1.0% (relative weakness on the session).
Pattern-based projection: modeled odds imply modest positive drift (about +0.69% 1-week, +2.3% 1-month), but not a high-conviction timing edge.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (volume): Put/call volume ratio 0.19 (calls dominating) indicates bullish near-term trading bias.
Positioning (OI): Open-interest put/call ratio 0.89 suggests positioning is fairly balanced with a mild call tilt.
Volatility: 30D IV ~48.9 vs historical vol ~40.8 (options priced for elevated moves). IV percentile ~64.5 indicates relatively elevated vs its recent distribution.
Activity: Today’s volume (955) is above 5D/10D averages (~~721/~~636), showing interest picking up into the next catalyst window.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish, but elevated IV implies the market is paying up for event risk (earnings).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead (2026-02-25 after hours, est. EPS 0.73): a “clean” report and confident outlook could re-rate the stock.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Fundamental trend (latest reported quarter) deteriorated sharply (loss-making, margin compression), which can cap upside until results stabilize.
- Analyst sentiment is mixed and has recently skewed more cautious via target cuts; Morgan Stanley is Underweight with a $24 target (near current), limiting perceived upside.
- MACD is positive but weakening (contracting histogram), consistent with a market that may churn rather than trend up.
- No supportive news flow in the past week; without a catalyst, the stock may remain range-bound.
- No supportive “smart money” tells from the provided data: hedge funds and insiders are neutral; no notable politician/congress activity provided.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $485.9M, -5.75% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -129.1M (down -143.25% YoY), EPS -1.33 (down -144.93% YoY)—shift to a sizable loss.
Margins: Gross margin 28.71%, down -28.94% YoY—meaningful compression.
Growth read-through: Recent quarter shows weakening fundamentals; the next inflection check is Q4 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: multiple firms cut price targets into early 2026 (Morgan Stanley $26→$24; Mizuho $30→$29; RBC $33→$30). This signals tempered expectations tied to commodity/macro and cash-flow realizations.
Current stance snapshot: Morgan Stanley stays Underweight (bearish), RBC stays Sector Perform (neutral), Mizuho is mixed across notes (recently Outperform with a small target trim; previously Neutral in December).
Wall Street pros (bull case): stabilization in activity, acquisition-driven/organic growth potential (e.g., Utica closing mentioned), and upside to targets (29–30) if execution and commodity tape cooperate.
Wall Street cons (bear case): macro uncertainty/price deck caution, lighter cash flow expectations, and the company’s recently weak reported quarter.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from politicians based on provided dataset).

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NOG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NOG is 28.33 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 25.310

Low

Averages

28.33

High

Current: 25.310

Low

Averages

28.33

High

Morgan Stanley

Underweight

downgrade

$26 -> $24

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$26 -> $24

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Northern Oil and Gas to $24 from $26 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.

Mizuho

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$30 -> $29

2026-01-21

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$30 -> $29

2026-01-21

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Northern Oil and Gas to $29 from $30 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of a Q4 preview. Northern should see some stabilization in activity this year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm cites wider natural gas differentials for the target trim.

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NOG Should I Buy

NOG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NOG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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