Should You Buy Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
44.650
1 Day change
1.57%
52 Week Range
60.540
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/26
Matador Resources Co (MTDR) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock lacks clear positive momentum, and while analysts have mixed views, there are no immediate catalysts to suggest a significant upside in the near term. The financial performance shows declining profitability, and technical indicators are neutral. A hold position is recommended until further clarity arises from the upcoming earnings report or other developments.
Technical Analysis
The MACD histogram is positive at 0.122, indicating slight bullish momentum, but it is contracting. RSI is neutral at 51.87, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 43.162, with support at 41.854 and resistance at 44.471. Overall, the technical indicators suggest a neutral trend.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Analysts from firms like BofA and Mizuho maintain a Buy or Outperform rating with price targets ranging from $50 to $70, indicating some long-term potential.
Matador's Delaware Basin concentration is seen as a unique growth narrative by Citi.
The upcoming earnings report on February 24, 2026, may provide more clarity on future performance.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Financial performance in Q3 2025 showed a significant decline in Net Income (-28.97% YoY), EPS (-28.64% YoY), and Gross Margin (-21.19% YoY).
Analysts like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have lowered price targets, citing risks like oversupply in the oil market and lighter cash flow.
Options data shows a slightly bearish sentiment with an Option Volume Put-Call Ratio of 1.07.
Financial Performance
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 6.39% YoY to $915.12M, but Net Income dropped by 28.97% YoY to $176.36M. EPS also fell by 28.64% YoY to 1.42, and Gross Margin declined by 21.19% YoY to 35.08. The company is facing profitability challenges despite revenue growth.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analysts have mixed ratings on MTDR. BofA and Mizuho maintain Buy and Outperform ratings with price targets of $50-$70, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have lowered their price targets to $52, citing oil market oversupply and lighter cash flow. The consensus suggests cautious optimism but with significant risks.
Wall Street analysts forecast MTDR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTDR is 57.08 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MTDR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTDR is 57.08 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 43.960
Low
50
Averages
57.08
High
70
Current: 43.960
Low
50
Averages
57.08
High
70
Wells Fargo
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$61 -> $47
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$61 -> $47
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo downgraded Matador to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $47, down from $61. The firm says the stock's valuation "increasingly incorporates a range of structural considerations," including higher capital intensity and variability in recent productivity trends. While Matador's progress on capital efficiency or midstream monetization could improve investor sentiment, the shares offer a more balanced risk/reward at current levels relative to peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Morgan Stanley
Devin McDermott
Equal Weight
downgrade
$56 -> $52
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Devin McDermott
Price Target
$56 -> $52
2026-01-23
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott lowered the firm's price target on Matador to $52 from $56 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
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