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MTDR Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
55.260
1 Day change
-0.56%
52 Week Range
66.840
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/24
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Matador Resources Co (MTDR) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. Despite some positive analyst ratings and price target increases, the technical indicators are neutral, and the financial performance shows declining revenue, net income, and EPS. Additionally, there are no significant recent news or catalysts to drive the stock higher in the short term. The options data suggests a bullish sentiment, but the lack of strong trading signals and the stock's potential for short-term downside make it less compelling for immediate investment.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is negative and contracting, the RSI is neutral at 61.619, and moving averages are converging. The stock is trading near its first resistance level (R1: 61.251), with key support at 57.753. There is no clear bullish or bearish signal from the technical indicators.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The low put-call ratios indicate a bullish sentiment in the options market. Implied volatility is high (IV Percentile: 91.24), suggesting elevated expectations for future price movement.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
8
Buy
5

Positive Catalysts

  • Several analysts have raised their price targets recently, with some maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. The company's Delaware Basin assets and management's insider ownership are seen as positives. Gross margin increased significantly YoY, indicating operational efficiency.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Financial performance in 2025/Q4 showed declining revenue (-17.25% YoY), net income (-10.25% YoY), and EPS (-8.82% YoY). Roth Capital downgraded the stock due to concerns about oil prices potentially peaking. Technical indicators do not show a strong bullish trend, and the stock has a 50% chance of short-term downside.

Financial Performance

In 2025/Q4, revenue dropped to $809.5M (-17.25% YoY), net income dropped to $192.5M (-10.25% YoY), and EPS dropped to $1.55 (-8.82% YoY). However, gross margin increased to 63.8%, up 51.90% YoY, reflecting improved operational efficiency.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed. Recent upgrades include price targets as high as $78 (Siebert Williams) and $77 (Citi), with Buy ratings. However, Roth Capital downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing concerns about oil prices peaking. The consensus reflects cautious optimism but lacks a unanimous bullish outlook.

Wall Street analysts forecast MTDR stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MTDR stock price to rise
12 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 55.260
sliders
Low
50
Averages
57.08
High
70
Current: 55.260
sliders
Low
50
Averages
57.08
High
70
Mizuho
William Janela
Outperform
to
Outperform
downgrade
$76 -> $74
AI Analysis
2026-05-07
New
Reason
Mizuho
William Janela
Price Target
$76 -> $74
AI Analysis
2026-05-07
New
downgrade
Outperform
to
Outperform
Reason
Mizuho analyst William Janela lowered the firm's price target on Matador to $74 from $76 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Raymond James
Outperform
maintain
$76 -> $79
2026-04-30
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
$76 -> $79
2026-04-30
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Matador to $79 from $76 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Matador reported slightly higher-than-expected Q1 production and oil volumes driven by accelerated workovers, with results and capex broadly in line with guidance, while ongoing weakness in Waha gas pricing continues to pressure near-term realizations ahead of expected improvement in late 2026 from new pipeline-related marketing agreements, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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