Should You Buy Mosaic Co (MOS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
28.040
1 Day change
-0.36%
52 Week Range
38.230
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
MOS is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Near-term technicals and pattern/odds lean mildly bearish, analysts have recently turned more cautious with multiple price-target cuts/downgrades, and there are no fresh news catalysts ahead of the next earnings event (2026-02-24 AH). Strong prior-quarter growth is a positive, but the current setup looks more like “wait/avoid chasing” than an immediate high-conviction entry.
Technical Analysis
Price context: pre-market ~27.96 (-0.29%) vs prior reference ~28.04, with broader market risk-off (S&P 500 -0.82% pre-market).
Trend/indicators:
- MACD histogram +0.138 (above 0) but “positively contracting,” which often signals bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
- RSI(6) ~58.7 (neutral-to-slightly bullish), not overbought and not a strong breakout signal.
- Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation/indecision.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 27.61 (important near-term line). A sustained break below increases downside risk toward S1 26.36.
- Resistance: R1 28.86 then R2 29.64. Bulls likely need a move/hold above ~28.86 to regain upside control.
Quant/pattern read (provided): 70% chance of -2.36% next day and -1.71% next week, but +2.18% next month. That skew implies short-term pressure is more likely than immediate upside.
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- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/positioning:
- Open Interest Put/Call = 0.93 and Volume Put/Call = 0.89: slightly more call-leaning than put-leaning (modestly bullish bias).
- Implied vol (30d) ~41.38 vs hist vol ~41.66: options are roughly “fair” vs realized, not screaming cheap.
- IV percentile 76 (elevated vs its own history): options are relatively expensive vs typical levels, often seen around uncertainty/event windows.
- Today’s options volume (~4,033) is ~60% of 30-day avg (59.62): not a strong, high-conviction flow day.
Takeaway: options lean mildly bullish (calls > puts), but not strongly. Elevated IV percentile suggests the market is pricing meaningful uncertainty, without strong one-day conviction via volume.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Fundamentals momentum (latest reported): strong YoY growth in revenue, EPS, and net income in 2025/Q
Some sell-side still constructive: BofA and Goldman maintain Buy ratings (though targets were cut), and RBC recently raised PT to $
Medium-term setup from provided pattern stats: probability-weighted outlook improves over the next month (+2.18%).
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 after hours (consensus EPS est. ~0.48).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical/pattern bias points down: 70% chance of a negative next day/next week move (per provided stats).
Analysts have turned more cautious recently: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform and removed its prior $35 target after weak preliminary Q4 results; multiple firms cut price targets (Wells Fargo, Mizuho, JPM, Barclays, Goldman, BofA).
Industry/macro concerns cited by analysts: Brazil softness, phosphate price risk (could decline), elevated/uncertain input costs (e.g., sulfur), and demand uncertainty this crop year.
No supportive news flow in the past week to spark a near-term rerating.
Earnings timing risk: next major catalyst is still weeks away, which can leave the stock drifting with commodity/ag sentiment.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $3.452B, +22.81% YoY (clear top-line acceleration).
- Net income: $411.4M, +236.66% YoY (large profitability improvement).
- EPS: $1.29, +239.47% YoY (strong earnings power vs prior year).
- Gross margin: 16%, +7.89% YoY (margin expansion).
Read-through: the last reported quarter shows strong growth and improving profitability, supporting the longer-term case. However, the market is currently focused on near-term demand/price/input-cost uncertainty highlighted in recent analyst notes.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (last ~6 weeks): sentiment has drifted more cautious overall.
- Negative shifts: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform (from Outperform) and removed its $35 PT (2026-01-16). Wells Fargo cut PT to $27 and stayed Equal Weight (2026-01-23). Mizuho, JPM, Barclays, Goldman, and BofA all cut price targets over recent months.
- Mixed/offsetting: RBC raised PT to $29 from $27 (2026-01-20) but still Sector Perform.
Wall Street pros (bull case): constructive potash commentary, potential 2026 tightening in phosphate supply, operational improvements, and strong trailing quarter growth.
Wall Street cons (bear case): near-term Brazil softness, uncertain demand this crop year, phosphate price downside risk, and higher input costs pressuring margins. Net takeaway: consensus posture is more “neutral/market-perform” than “must-buy now.”
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 32.38 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 43 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 32.38 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 43 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.140
Low
24
Averages
32.38
High
43
Current: 28.140
Low
24
Averages
32.38
High
43
Wells Fargo
Michael Sison
Equal Weight
downgrade
$28 -> $27
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Wells Fargo
Michael Sison
Price Target
$28 -> $27
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison lowered the firm's price target on Mosaic to $27 from $28 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company cut its Q4 volume expectation on Brazil softness and SSP curtailments. Near-term pressure persists, but Wells sees a firmer 2026 on tighter phosphate supply and Brazil demand recovery.
RBC Capital
Andrew Wong
Sector Perform
maintain
$27 -> $29
2026-01-20
Reason
RBC Capital
Andrew Wong
Price Target
$27 -> $29
2026-01-20
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital analyst Andrew Wong raised the firm's price target on Mosaic to $29 from $27 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. Mosaic benefits from a constructive potash market, but the firm expects continued uncertainty into 2026 given that phosphate prices remain elevated but could decline, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Phosphate operations that may improve, but RBC sees margins negatively impacted by higher input costs, with soft Brazil ag conditions that may also impact Fertilizantes, the firm added.
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