Should I Buy LI? LI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Li Auto Inc (LI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

16.570

1 Day change

-4.03%

52 Week Range

33.120

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Price is pressing near resistance (~17.32) with momentum improving, but fundamentals and Street sentiment have deteriorated sharply (multiple downgrades/target cuts, weakening margins, revenue down big YoY) and near-term positioning looks cautious (hedge funds selling; options volume skewing to puts).

Technical Analysis

LI closed at 17.25, sitting just below R1 resistance (17.321) and above the pivot (16.618). MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.147), signaling improving upside momentum. RSI(6) at ~67.8 is near the upper end of neutral, suggesting the stock is getting somewhat stretched into resistance rather than offering a clean ‘buy-low’ entry. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation and potential breakout/failed breakout risk. Levels: support S1 ~15.92 then S2 ~15.48; resistance R1 ~17.32 then R2 ~17.76. The pattern-based outlook provided leans slightly negative (next month bias -3.69%), which makes buying into resistance less attractive for an impatient entry.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call at 0.75 suggests positioning is not heavily defensive (mildly bullish/neutral structurally). However, the put/call on *today’s* option volume is high at 2.39, implying short-term bearish/tactical hedging or speculation dominates current flow. Implied vol (30D) ~56.9 vs historical vol ~27.8 indicates elevated uncertainty and expensive options; volume is also elevated vs the 30D average (~119%), reinforcing that the market is actively pricing near-term risk rather than confident upside.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

in a comparative piece. Product/AI initiatives (e.g., ‘AI glass’) provide a longer-dated narrative catalyst if commercialization gains traction.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Hedge funds net selling (selling amount up ~258.86% last quarter). Options flow skewed bearish (volume put/call 2.39). Near-term technical setup is buying into resistance (R1 ~17.
with limited immediate upside before the next ceiling (R2 ~17.76).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to 27.36B, down -36.17% YoY. Net income swung deeper to -625.0M (down -122.21% YoY) with EPS -0.31 (-123.48% YoY). Gross margin dropped to 16.33% (-24.12% YoY). Overall: clear deterioration in growth and profitability trends versus last year, which supports the wave of analyst caution.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend is negative: several firms cut targets and shifted/maintained neutral-to-cautious stances. Key actions include Jefferies downgrade to Hold with PT cut to 17.50 (from 28.80) citing tougher competition and Huawei cycle risk; HSBC downgrade to Hold with PT 18.60 and large earnings cuts; multiple Neutral/Market Perform reiterations with PTs clustered around ~17–22; only selective Buy remains (e.g., Freedom Capital still Buy but PT cut 25 from 34). Wall Street pros: acknowledged long-term vision/AI angle and potential upside if competition eases and margins recover. Cons: intensifying China EREV/SUV competition, margin pressure, weaker guidance, and uncertain timing for AI initiatives to translate into earnings—hence the prevailing ‘wait for evidence of turnaround’ posture.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LI is 21.12 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

8 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 17.260

Low

Averages

21.12

High

Current: 17.260

Low

Averages

21.12

High

Jefferies

Buy

Hold

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Jefferies downgraded Li Auto to Hold from Buy with a price target of $17.50, down from $28.80. The firm says competition in the company's family SUV segment has intensified. Huawei's strong product cycle in 2026 could further pressure Li Auto's EREV lineup, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While Li's debut of its first AI glass marks an initial move into AI hardware, meaningful commercialization of the company's broader AI initiatives may take time, adds Jefferies. It views 2026 as a transition year for Li.

Piper Sandler

Alexander Potter

Neutral

maintain

$18 -> $19

2026-01-08

Reason

Piper Sandler

Alexander Potter

Price Target

$18 -> $19

2026-01-08

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised the firm's price target on Li Auto to $19 from $18 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Discussing the outlook for 2026, the firm says it expects North American sales to fall 1.2% in 2026 due to persistent concerns regarding affordability. Lower sales should have a downward impact on production, but this may be blunted by re-shoring and fewer imports. In Europe, Piper expects sales to revert to growth in 2026, driven by an influx of cheap Chinese vehicles and rising government support. The firm further expects production to remain flat, due to weakening demand for domestic cars and lower exports. In China, Piper sees sales falling 3.0% in 2026 due to macro weakness and expiring subsidies. Continued export growth should partially offset the effect of lower demand on production, which it has as falling 1.8% year-over-year in 2026.

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LI Should I Buy

LI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Li Auto Inc (LI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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